Law Coronavirus the US GOV'T Response analysis Thread

[Mani]

Why does this have to happen during the season where it looks like Leeds are gonna be promoted?!?!

Fuck the EFL!!!

 

[HereticBD]

No one thinks it's the Apocalypse. This isn't the plague. It's not going to wipe out half of Europe. It IS going to bring health care systems in a lot of countries to their knees. Things are going to get ugly. If you think things are roses and sunshine in Italy right now, you're just plain deluded. And 3 weeks ago Italy was where North America is now.

It's not "roses and sunshine". It's just not the apocalyptic plague that is being reported. It's a super flu. It's been done.

If social media wasn't around, there wouldn't be this big panic.

 

[chardog]

H1N1 WAS a legit pandemic. It happened to have a 0.02% mortality rate. That's 1 in 5000 infected.

Coronavirus is also a Pandemic. It has a mortality rate around 2% (possibly as much as 3.4%). That's 1 out of every 50 infected.

So what happens if Coronavirus reaches the same infection levels as H1N1 (which seems entirely possible)?

I explained in my post that’s a wildly off figure, fatality rate cannot be determined during an outbreak so easily. The only numbers remotely accurate are confirmed infections and confirmed deaths. I did a calculation with cross reference to H1N1, and concluded that the virus might have an overall infection to death ratio of 0.03% when you take into account the unreported cases.

H1N1 had up to 20% fatality rate during the breakout phase, which amounted to nothing. It was a wildly underperforming flu, that killed only 12K Americans in one year. That’s considered one of the least deadly flu’s ever.

2019 numbers here: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

People dont even blink about a 30K death toll by flu, and nobody is even tested for flu. It’s presumed.

The recovery rate of coronavirus is extremely high and getting higher each day.

 

[7437]

H1N1 WAS a legit pandemic. It happened to have a 0.02% mortality rate. That's 1 in 5000 infected.

Coronavirus is also a Pandemic. It has a mortality rate around 2% (possibly as much as 3.4%). That's 1 out of every 50 infected.

So what happens if Coronavirus reaches the same infection levels as H1N1 (which seems entirely possible)?

Luckily the math on that's pretty easy. H1n1 killed about 12.5k people. Multiply by 100 for the higher death rate and we see 1.25 million dead. Roughly double the flu's annual total.

 

[HARRISON_3]

I hope I don't get it.

 

[Ornife]

I hope I don't get it.

I hope you don't get it.

 

[HARRISON_3]

I hope you don't get it.

 

[chardog]

H1N1 WAS a legit pandemic. It happened to have a 0.02% mortality rate. That's 1 in 5000 infected.

Coronavirus is also a Pandemic. It has a mortality rate around 2% (possibly as much as 3.4%). That's 1 out of every 50 infected.

So what happens if Coronavirus reaches the same infection levels as H1N1 (which seems entirely possible)?

Adding some context:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/sep/20/swine-flu-costs-un-report
H1N1 was expected to kill millions, using the same false logic. Current fatality rate X expected infections. Bad math.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-flu-pandemic-analysis-idUSTRE53T35Y20090430

Will it kill millions? Loaded ass question.

Similar rhetoric:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10945744/coronavirus-covid-19-kill-45-million-terrorism/
Coronavirus can kill 45million lmao.

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...-covid-19-coronavirus-outbreak-likely-to-get/
50 million claim

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coro...uld-covid-19-really-kill-millions/ar-BB10GoFt
Suggesting millions

 

[Wadtucket]

Trump avoided leaks by excluding the treacherous Europoors


European officials say they were blindsided by Trump’s new travel restrictions

Europe appears to have been largely blindsided by President Trump’s announcement earlier today that the US was suspending travel from 26 European countries.

Several European ambassadors in Washington tell CNN they didn’t know this was coming, despite having been in contact with the administration over the past few days.

One ambassador in DC said there was “no indication” Trump would go to the lengths he did, while another spokesperson said German officials had no advanced warning this was coming.

“We knew something was coming on travel from Europe (more restrictive travel advice) but not this drastic," the Belgian ambassador told CNN. "What is not understandable is the exception for the UK and the lack of national measures [domestically].”
The Trump administration notified ambassadors after the announcement: Several European ambassadors expressed a need for clarity as they worked to digest what these new measures mean. They had received calls from the State Department after the announcement -- but they "have not yet answers to our questions,” said one ambassador.

State Department officials say they didn’t know precisely what Trump was going to roll out, given the fact that multiple options were on the table.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with the Australian Foreign Minister less than five hours before Trump’s address -- and gave no indication of the announcement coming tonight, according to a source familiar with the meeting.

Pompeo did acknowledge that things were going to continue to be painful, and increasingly so, for the next six weeks or so.

 

[Madmick]

I explained in my post that’s a wildly off figure, fatality rate cannot be determined during an outbreak so easily. The only numbers remotely accurate are confirmed infections and confirmed deaths. I did a calculation with cross reference to H1N1, and concluded that the virus might have an overall infection to death ratio of 0.03% when you take into account the unreported cases.

H1N1 had up to 20% fatality rate during the breakout phase, which amounted to nothing. It was a wildly underperforming flu, that killed only 12K Americans in one year. That’s considered one of the least deadly flu’s ever.

2019 numbers here: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

People dont even blink about a 30K death toll by flu, and nobody is even tested for flu. It’s presumed.

The recovery rate of coronavirus is extremely high and getting higher each day.

You're contradicting yourself and fudging your own numbers to arrive at the conclusion you want.

Fauci, our own CDC director, testified today that the fatality rate for the normal flu (he wasn't specific) is 0.1%, and that the Coronavirus is at least 10x as high as that, which would put it at 1.0%, but I presume he calculates the latter figure by US deaths or those in first world countries; because globally it's ~37x as that rate just going off the John Hopkins map for confirmed deaths versus confirmed cases (3.67% currently). Meanwhile, it's spreading similar to the flu, but unlike the flu, as Fauci (or another health director) had to explain to Trump in one of those critical meetings, there is no vaccine for COVID-19, and we won't be able to produce a viable vaccine for at least a year. This has been Trump's only meaningful misstep so far. He really seemed to believe we would be able to vaccinate it. Fortunately, he was convinced in that meeting, and changed course with the strategy to fight it.

 

[Social Distance Warrior]

Don't go. 6 suspected cases are currently there due to some guy from Italy. Due to the lack of prope testing facility, samples were sent out and are not expected back for a week.

Fuck

 

[Krallang]

Money ain't gonna help bro. People will be raiding farmers and preppers and people with freezers filled of deer meat. I'm good bro I got my trusty sigp239 and will head to my parents remote property with my fam where two rotties and a case of rifles will keep us safe

Raiding farmers and preppers? In what world do you envision that happening? People in rural areas know each other. You think some yokels are gonna roll up and take over. I grew up in baltimore, traveled the world and now live in a small west virginia town... If shit ever truely hit the fan every good ole boy and their 20 best friends will be posted up on every road into or outta town. Theres likely only 2 or 3 total, which makes it even easier to defend.

Im not banking on any government assistance but every person i interact with on at least a biweekly basis I know by name. Can the same be said about any urban or even suburban area? Hell I bet half of you have never talked to your neighbor. There's a reason I moved to the country 10 years ago.

 

[chardog]

You're contradicting yourself and fudging your own numbers to arrive at the conclusion you want.

Fauci, our own CDC director, testified today that the fatality rate for the normal flu (he wasn't specific) is 0.1%, and that the Coronavirus is at least 10x as high as that, which would put it at 1.0%, but I presume he calculates the latter figure by US deaths or those in first world countries; because globally it's ~37x as that rate just going off the John Hopkins map for confirmed deaths versus confirmed cases (3.67% currently). Meanwhile, it's spreading similar to the flu, but unlike the flu, as Fauci (or another health director) had to explain to Trump in one of those critical meetings, there is no vaccine for COVID-19, and we won't be able to produce a viable vaccine for at least a year. This has been Trump's only meaningful misstep so far. He really seemed to believe we would be able to vaccinate it. Fortunately, he was convinced in that meeting, and changed course with the strategy to fight it.

What numbers am I fudging? I’m curious to see what’s wrong with my analysis. You can provide me the numbers if you want, anything, and I’ll break them down.

As for the RATE being unreliable, have a quick read here: https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/162/5/479/82647
The estimates obtained during the SARS epidemic by dividing the number of deaths by the total number of reported cases were much lower (3–5 percent during the first few weeks of the global outbreak) than those obtained when appropriate statistical techniques were used and varied significantly between countries (6–8). Furthermore, as the epidemic progressed, these statistically naïve estimates falsely suggested a rise in the case fatality ratio (9), fueling the already high levels of public alarm in the affected populations.

Post right above yours, I illustrate why that fuzzy math does not work. H1N1 had estimates of 20% fatality during the outbreak. In the United States we were 7% fatality rate, then when the tests came in, that number dropped significantly. Exact same thing happened in South Korea. What does it mean? Fatality rates are absurdly unreliable. To this day, there can be a stat proving H1N1 had a 3% fatality rate, while CDC numbers showed that it had only a 0.02% fatality rate.

 

[evergreenrider]

I also wonder, pres said small businesses and shit will be getting help, but how do you go about getting said help when you cant prove you have the virus? Considering we ain't doing shit for testing

 

[Madmick]

The 3.67% figure isn't an estimate. It's derived from the confirmed cases versus the confirmed deaths from those cases. I'm just going off the JH map. All sources aren't in 100% agreement, and we're not dealing with numbers where small mistakes would extrapolate to major statistical flaws when estimating the wider impact. This isn't 9 deaths, we're talking about, here, it's over 4,000:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I'm in the Least Concern camp, but your attempt to downplay this outbreak, or analogize it to Swine Flu (like the Avian Bird Flu a decade earlier) is misguided. We're well past phantom panic.

 

[themainman]

This Democratic hoax has gotten out of control

 

[Rematch]

Fuck

I've been getting updates from the homeland.

 

[chardog]

The 3.67% figure isn't an estimate. It's derived from the confirmed cases versus the confirmed deaths from those cases. I'm just going off the JH map. All sources aren't in 100% agreement, and we're not dealing with numbers where small mistakes would extrapolate to major statistical flaws when estimating the wider impact. This isn't 9 deaths, we're talking about, here, it's over 4,000:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I'm in the Least Concern camp, but your attempt to downplay this outbreak, or analogize it to Swine Flu (like the Avian Bird Flu a decade earlier) is misguided. We're well past phantom panic.

4000 dead, and 68000 recovered.

I’ll let you take a guess what H1N1’s confirmed count vs death rate........ 3%

It’s technically many times greater than the flu as well, spread to 214 countries. Again, history and numbers are NOT on your side.

68000 recovered, does that number have any meaning to you? It sure as hell should.

4000 dead worldwide is a paltry number for months of deaths. 4000 people die in a week in America due to the regular flu, nobody bats an eye. Nobody tests. Nobody closes anything.

Since this virus is now deemed a pandemic, surely I can make that comparison right?

Again, when you got a chance, let me know which chart is source is inaccurate or flawed, consider this a healthy dose of skepticism.

 

[DizzyDaze]

Damn Tom Hanks nd his wife caught it? Probably already mentioned here

 

[rasta42]

Yes TYT but I pretty much explain the key points in my post.

She is right you know and she should point out that fact given the dangers of coronavirus already death in the US by someone who has contracted the virus. There has been children as young as 45 days who have died from the virus and we have actual cases appearing across the Country in more and more states at a rapid rise. We need people who have dealt with actual dangerous viruses such as Ebola and SARS. I think many Republicans think the same way but are afraid of making their opinions known and recent comments by President Trump leads me to believe he may have a change of heart by the end of the week.

Edit Point too I like Pence but he is not the man for the job. I don't think by his reactions he really wanted to be in charge of this effort because the damage is already happening.

the virus is going to kill all of us. let them fight it matters not