Economy Consumers Sound Alarm on Trump Economy: Expectations Reach Recession Level

[Andy Capp]

I'm interested to know how many people around the world are low key buying fewer obviously US-made products.

There's quite a lot of noise around it, but whether it's just noise or not I would not know.

I don't know about any other country but that's certainly true of Canada. People are also cancelling travel to the US and selling their vacation properties in large numbers.

 

[Captain Tenneal]

I never argued it was. I'm pointing out that citing false negatives does not translate to false positives happen at similar rates, which is what you're aruging. AKA you cite negatives positives as evidence that the current positive indicator we're seeing is a false positive.

Have you ever taken a basic stats course?

You're being incoherent. The original post was not predicated on false negatives happening on similar rates as whatever you're then stating is a false positive here. It gave in this case both negatives and positives of CCI being used as some sort of "predictive" model. These positives and negatives are independent of each other. It is not good that CCI is lower than the baseline of "100". And repeated lower CCIs is certainly not good. But alone consumers themselves are not a good predictor of a future recession.

You reacted too quickly and are now trying to mumbo your way out of it

 

[Blunderbuss]

I'm interested to know how many people around the world are low key buying fewer obviously US-made products.

There's quite a lot of noise around it, but whether it's just noise or not I would not know.

Some of the grocery chains here are sticking maple leaf stickers next to the price of the products that are at least %51 made in Canada

 

[Kona Bear]

 

[Andy Capp]

Not to detract from the point that Trump is shit and what he is doing is shit, but high egg prices are mainly due to bird flu culls and America's weirdly high average consumption rate of eggs (relative to other places).

 

[Dalarna3]

The world is definitely a darker place, but I don't think that's Trump's fault. We just had four bad years of mismanagement

 

[Sinister]

Not to detract from the point that Trump is shit and what he is doing is shit, but high egg prices are mainly due to bird flu culls and America's weirdly high average consumption rate of eggs (relative to other places).

He knee-capped all of the agencies who could coherently deal with the pandemic of bird flu, and corporations are more apt to gouge because Republicans think that sh*t is ok

 

[Siver!]

Are you a moron or something?

How do you prove these nameless wallets are being directed by a third party to dump money into Trump?

Looks a lot like how a president in Mexico used to be a "best seller" author, he wrote a book and mysteriously all copies were always pre-sold before even coming out, then we found on later on he didn't even read much less wrote those books.

What are you talking about? Melania Trump launched the coin herself. Promoted it. Sold it.

 

[Khaosan]

I'm interested to know how many people around the world are low key buying fewer obviously US-made products.

There's quite a lot of noise around it, but whether it's just noise or not I would not know.

Myself, my family and all of my friends are refusing to purchase anything American that we can.

This isn’t just noise.

 

[Khaosan]

These idiots surrendered their country to a convicted felon and adjudicated rapist for cheaper eggs and ended up with a 41% price increase lmao.

 

[Blunderbuss]

Myself, my family and all of my friends are refusing to purchase anything American that we can.

This isn’t just noise.

I dunno what part of the country you are in, but i had seen a post on twitter a few weeks ago that made me laugh and really resonated with me. It was something along the lines of "the president is grossly underestimating the amount of PEI potatoes I am willing to eat"

Edit: this is of course me presuming you are Canadian. Which you very well may not be.

 

[TeTe]

I been hearing more and more that people need to move their 401k to safer and low return areas. This reminds me of 2008, 2002, and 1987 market shocks. These cost the country in total around 18 trillion dollars not including the impact under COVID. I sound like the evil guy but I did not take a dime in money during covid. People where getting their unemployment and 600 plus dollars extra a week. I knew this was going to come on the middle class soon enough. But that was small compared to the SBA and corporate bailout money in the trillions.

Unless you plan on retiring within the next couple years, I wouldnt move a 401k anywhere. I am however sitting mostly in cash right waiting to dump into a Roth IRA when the SP drops 10 percent or more.

 

[TeTe]

I wouldn't "expect" anything until unemployment starts picking up much quicker.

While tariff inflation won't help, the stock market is overheated.. beta being 2x GDP highest since the great depression, so we're due some sort of correction.

But even a stock selloff doesn't indicate recession. Unemployment needs to start ticking over 4.5 for any real worry to set in. I'll be interested to see what Q1 growth comes in at, will probably still be over 2.

But if history is any indication, we're well beyond a yield curve un-inversion and 6-12 months past typically hasn't been kind to the economy.

Basically, the chances were high for recession regardless of who would be office right now honestly. It's just a matter of Trump accelerating it or not. We've really backed ourselves in a corner with the 10 year Treasury being so high and the Fed not wanting QE yet or even lower rates. Something's gotta give.