I have nothing against people nerding out and flexing their knowledge of the sport and the fighters, and I like reading it, but I think most fight predictions are myopic in that for all the scenarios we can imagine, it's only going to be one specific scenario that ends the fight, and it's anybody's guess which one that will be or who will pull it off. So my takes are a little more abstract and less specific, because there are simply too many variables to say for sure what will happen. When I say Jiri early, I mean I feel like that's when his odds are best to end the fight, not so much that Alex can't do the same. The longer the fight goes, the more I favor Alex as once he has made his computations, that's when he's truly lethal. Granted he can land that night night 10 seconds in too. I don't know what Jiri's gameplan will be, if he'll be more cautious. He most certainly should be. But if he's going to fall into chaotic blitzing, his 50/50 odds are probably right there in the first couple minutes. After that I imagine if will be easier for Alex to read and counter him.
I think he should grapple and first of all try to see if the toe/foot are vulnerable. But Jiri's a nut, I think he just does what he does and let's the chips fall where they may.
