am I missing something with Petr/Sean?

[Qays Stetkevich]

When this fight was announced I was confused that OMalley was even being allowed in the same league/cage as Yan. I really, really don´t see Omalley taking this, whereas I see Yan having several relatively easy paths to victory. Yan´s fight IQ could be the determiner here, but barring that I see him with an easy W.

 

[BJJ Lover]

O'Malley is turning 28 in 3 weeks and Yan is turning 30 in almost 3 months.

Why did I mention this?

I'm not 100% sure.

 

[Reffson]

 

[SherdogWasNeverMyFriend]

Yan will take it because he's more Siberian according to MMA Guru.

 

[Pepy]

Either Pyotr sends Puddle to the shadow realm or Puddle by split decision.

is Sal D'Amato gonna be a judge?
I can see it

 

[2432sj]

I’d love to see O’Malley lose, but I wasn't impressed with Yan’s performance against Sterling and although Yan beat Sandhagen, who had a significant height advantage, I think O’Malley might make better use of that advantage.

 

[Lawrence]

I watch to see if O'malley can rise to the occasion. That's one of the most exciting things in this sport. When a fighter rises to the occasion and suprises. O'malleys standup has been looking phenomenal in some fights, and average in other fights. Let's see how good he really is.

I see it just like you Bro !

Suga is a long way from being favored... But I think he might give us a great show win or lose.

If he puts on a good performance his stock and rank probably go up, anyhow and I don't care as long is the fights keep being entertaining.

 

[Local Plata]

Omalley is tall and can use his range, and Petr is a slow starter.

 

[ElLunico]

This being a 3 round fight is why I give O'Malley a really good chance of beating Yan.. Yan is a notoriously slow starter.. 1st round for him is strictly a feel out round.

I could see O'Malley winning the 1st round and then using his length, movement and speed to make Yan come to him and win another round..

Yan also isn't a KO striker like people make him out to be.. He wins via accumulation and pressure and he might have a tough time closing the distance on Sean and then running out of time.

However we've seen Yan face adversity and come thru.. Meanwhile we've O'Malley crumble physically and mentally..

I still pick Yan because of his mental toughness but I wouldn't be shocked if O'Malley pulls it off and wins by decision

 

[The XL]

Yan gives early rounds away. O'Malley has a shot in this one.

 

[Jfreemandrums]

I watch to see if O'malley can rise to the occasion. That's one of the most exciting things in this sport. When a fighter rises to the occasion and suprises. O'malleys standup has been looking phenomenal in some fights, and average in other fights. Let's see how good he really is.

Rise to the occasion??? O'Malley has had a longer tenure with the UFC than Yan, who has won and lost and won and lost a belt in a lesser time frame.

The dude is never going to be anything than a flashy but mid-tier competitor. Has he even cracked the top 10? His best wins are Wineland and Almeida for Christ's sake

 

[pick999]

O malley by armbar

 

[Dude Incredible]

I had no idea Petr was a slow starter. Dang.

 

[Safton]

I've got Yan winning thanks to his resume and the wrestling he has in his back pocket, but I think O'Malley has a non-zero chance of taking this by Decision. Petr is a bit of a slow starter and Sean is known for his high activity rate. Purely on paper, Yan's conventional high guard, slow & steady pressure is a good style for him to use his footwork and range to pick at from range. I would not be overly surprised if we see Sean winning the first round as Petr takes it off to make his reads, Yan coming on strong in the third and really walking him down, leaving the second as a contentious swing round.

 

[Kono dio da!]

Let's go from grappling-centric all the way to boxing-centric rulesets.

1. Who would be more likely to win if this was a grappling-only match?
2. Who would be more likely to win an MMA fight?
3. Who would be more likely to win a kickboxing fight?
4. Who would be more likely to win a boxing match?

The answer, for every single one of the above, is Petr IMO. He is literally better everywhere. If you pressed me to be creative and even come up with a POSSIBLE way Sean can win, it is only via stealing a first round where basically nothing happens, then being awarded a controversial second round on 2 judges cards that most fans think he lost, then emphatically losing the third yet winning a SD.

Yet many pro fighters... to include guys who I know do decent analysis... have this pained look on their face and lament how "hard" it is to pick a winner. None of them really explain it well as to why it is hard (no I didn't watch all 50 or whatever interviews) but I am legit shocked so many said this. This is the LEAST hard analysis ever... Petr is better literally everywhere. They flat-out aren't on the same level. Or am I missing something?

It's 3 rounds

 

[richardjohnson]

This is a very possible outcome, Omalley knows how to milk a foul.

He also knows how to commit a foul in a fight he’s losing. Still crazy to me how he just eye poked his way into a fight with the number one contender and former champ. Dana must be one of the many dudes that Sean lets fuck his girl

 

[Dionysian]

Probably O'Malley but I wouldn't count Yan out. If he's the better wrestler (good reason to believe this), he could get a takedown and win on points.

I'd be decently confident on a "Yan by a bunch of points" bet if they grappled, but to each their own.

I don't know what else you're expecting. 3/4 picks Yann and 1/4 O'Malley which seems like an expected split. It's not outrageous for some to pick Sean, the fact that it's a 3 rounder makes it interesting. Some also just pick based on gut instincts rather than pure analysis, it's not always so black and white, especially in this sport. Even if one agrees to all the criteria you mentioned, one can still pick against Yann just because they have a feeling an upset will happen.

I'm just legit surprised to those responding to the question of who they think will win with such theatrics to say "oh man I have no idea this is such a tough one". It really isn't. I'm suggesting that either I am missing something fundamental with the analysis or fighters are saying that "gee wiz this one is so tough to pick" when they don't really believe it. This is the furthest thing from a stylistic Rubik's cube that I can think of / I think they're saying what they think the UFC wants to hear.

I didn't care about this fight until this thread. Now I'm rooting for the sugar show

You're welcome then. Bet the house and get back to me after the fight.

 

[Pierced7681]

I bet UFC is hoping Petr Yan takes 2 rounds to get going like he always does, which is why they scheduled this fight for 3 rounds opposed to 5 rounds.

By the time Yan gets into the fight, it may be too late to win on points. I think Yan still destroys him, but there is a possibility that he could lose a close decision because of how long it takes him to read his opponent.

Yup, this exactly. Hoping Yan shows more urgency here than he usually does.

 

[B0mbSquad]

It's not a good match up and the odds reflect that. It's a victory for O'Malley if he can manage to not get finished.

 

[Dorkman]

I do have Yan winning. But sean being good at pot shot striking while being as long as he is for the division does have me colored intrigued about this fight and not just thinking it's a forgone conclusion. Plus i've said for a good 2-3 years now i'll care if Sean beats someone worth a shit. And yan is worth a whole lot of shits. And I want to see if he's up to the task of everything he's been saying now that he's seemingly gotten his new contract that makes him willing to accept ranked opponents. As a long time detractor of sean of course I'd love to see him get sonned. But i'm also interested to see if he somehow pulls it off and i'll be willing to give him the respect for at least beating a hugely legit opponent. The Pedro fight was basically a non fight. Neither guy did anything before the poke, so there wasn't really anything to judge on if Sean was legit or not as just nothing happened. But I don't see Yan letting nothing happen. So it's going to force the do or die I think.