am I missing something with Petr/Sean?

[The Legendary Scarface]

I don't think it's that decisive in the boxing.
This is the most intriguing part of this matchup IMO and where O'Malley stands a real chance.
I don't blame you for picking Petr one bit but as someone mentioned above, Sean is an outside fighter - very good counter striker, particularly as a boxer who thrives off of pressure and the reach is a real advantage.
I just wanna see this shit lol

 

[Banana Tree's Nemesis]

O malley is ranger,so is Sandhagen but Sandhagen is an inside fighter while O malley fights from outside. O malley can outpoint him to a decision

Nonsense. Look at the Munhoz fight. If you don't engage with Sean he's literally inactive. The guy can't move forward. He looks like a point fighter on paper, but he really isn't. Munhoz showed it pretty well. Wait for him to engage and answer with a leg kick. Sean doen't really throw combinations, so answering with a leg kick isn't all that dangerous.

 

[StonedLemur]

I’ve got Yan leaving with O’Malley’s gal

That's not hard considering he lets everyone bang her anyway sir lol.

 

[Bowel-forged Stool]

There is no need to fight for that. A bag of weed and O'Malley will let you bang his girl.

I don’t think O’Malley needs to let him. I think Yan takes what he wants

 

[SirKratos]

Also I know this might be a hard concept for basement dwellers to wrap their head around… But what if O’Malley fights better that day?

Or what if he happens to capitalize on a mistake?

Or what if he improved a lot?

Fight results doesn’t always come down to which fighter have the most Martial Arts they are better at than their opponent on paper, smh. And this man is following MMA since at least 2010

 

[StonedLemur]

I want to see the fight, but more from freak show point of view.
I say that because rankings wise Sean has never beaten anyone that's ranked, and he really doesn't deserve to be there.

I would love for Yan to beat the brakes off of O'Malley but this is MMA...who the fuck knows.

I agree that Yan is the better fighter all around, but so was GSP when Serra flattened him so I guess that's why we watch sir.

 

[Dionysian]

No reason to watch the fight anyways then?

Why wouldn't I? Pretty bizarre to only watch fights where you have no idea who is favored.

Keep in mind Khabib vs Conor was the most-watched fight in our sport's history. That wasn't a "gee what is going to happen" fight in the slightest, despite all the promotional bullshit of pro picks blabbing about "oh man I don't know what about that left hand" before the fight happened.

methinks you're taking all this more seriously than they are.



What is he, a 4-1 underdog? 5-1? Ya, it appears most people agree with you.

99% of the time, his only path to victory is to win the first round (he's a fast starter, Yan is a slow starter, and he is decent at dictating range and Yan is smaller), and then somehow eke out another round. 1% chance of random other finish.

Sounds like you're agreeing with me then... thinking multiple pros are NOT taking it seriously and saying they are picking Sean for either promotional reasons or contrarian reasons or whatever.

Only problem is, you can’t say “X is a better boxer than Y” based on things you saw in MMA fights. Sean could very well be a better striker than Yan and we wouldn’t know.

No offense but if we can't say who the better boxer is by observing their boxing skills what the hell else could we base it on? Or are you saying we have to watch them with 16 ounce gloves + Queensberry rules only?

Also I know this might be a hard concept for basement dwellers to wrap their head around… But what if O’Malley fights better that day?

Or what if he happens to capitalize on a mistake?

Or what if he improved a lot?

Fight results doesn’t always come down to which fighter have the most Martial Arts they are better at than their opponent on paper, smh. And this man is following MMA since at least 2010

Watching since at least 2010 taught me to judge fights based on skillsets. Instead of nebulous shit like "what if" questions not based on any reality.

 

[Banana Tree's Nemesis]

O'malley is just a wildcard. His style is unique and he didn't have to deal with a lot of losses so far. It's difficult to read how much he improves from fight to fight. From his track record though, it appears that he would have the power to end a fight with 1 strike and his unique style could get fighters to react poorly. That said, from all UFC fighters imo Petr Yan looks like the least vulnerable to that. He's a cold machine. Nobody has universally better working reactions than Petr. He leaves very very little attack surface.

 

[SeattleFightFan]

Sounds like you're agreeing with me then... thinking multiple pros are NOT taking it seriously and saying they are picking Sean for either promotional reasons or contrarian reasons or whatever.

yes

 

[SeattleFightFan]

Also I know this might be a hard concept for basement dwellers to wrap their head around… But what if O’Malley fights better that day?

Or what if he happens to capitalize on a mistake?

Or what if he improved a lot?

Fight results doesn’t always come down to which fighter have the most Martial Arts they are better at than their opponent on paper, smh. And this man is following MMA since at least 2010

That's why gamblers are so superior to fans when it comes to analyzing fights. All those things could happen. Are are you still willing to put money on O'Malley (if you gambled), even at 4-1 odds? You only need to win one out of 4 of those longshots to break even....

(insert random side musing) I was thinking about my biggest bet ever this weekend. It was Alistair Overeem v Todd Duffee. Easy money, right? Well, I made a lot less money then, and really I could not afford to lose a bet like this. I bet over $2k on Overeem to win something like $400. I was very confident he would win...but my stomach churned for days. Ruined the event for me too. I decided then that I wasn't cut out to be a big gambler.

 

[BJJ Lover]

Let's go from grappling-centric all the way to boxing-centric rulesets.

1. Who would be more likely to win if this was a grappling-only match?

Probably O'Malley but I wouldn't count Yan out. If he's the better wrestler (good reason to believe this), he could get a takedown and win on points.

2. Who would be more likely to win an MMA fight?

Hopefully Yan, we'll see soon enough.

3. Who would be more likely to win a kickboxing fight?

I'd favor Yan even though the big gloves are more to O'malley's advantage. Yan's training is good for kickboxing environment whereas O'Malley does more MMA freeflow.

4. Who would be more likely to win a boxing match?

I'd favor Yan but I'm only guessing here.

The answer, for every single one of the above, is Petr IMO. He is literally better everywhere. If you pressed me to be creative and even come up with a POSSIBLE way Sean can win, it is only via stealing a first round where basically nothing happens, then being awarded a controversial second round on 2 judges cards that most fans think he lost, then emphatically losing the third yet winning a SD.

Yet many pro fighters... to include guys who I know do decent analysis... have this pained look on their face and lament how "hard" it is to pick a winner. None of them really explain it well as to why it is hard (no I didn't watch all 50 or whatever interviews) but I am legit shocked so many said this. This is the LEAST hard analysis ever... Petr is better literally everywhere. They flat-out aren't on the same level. Or am I missing something?

It's just that we don't know how good O'Malley really is.

The 2 times he fought ranked opponents, his leg broke and he got DQ'd.

Of course the leg break was a legitimate loss but what happened is statistically rare.

We haven't seen anyone have an answer for his striking flurries aside from that.

Yan starts slow and Sean starts fast.

In a 3 round fight, that means Sean could edge out a decision or get a TKO.

I'm rooting for Yan, hopefully he beats Sean.

 

[El Fernas]

Don't rule out the options of o'Malley winning by DQ from an illegal knee on the head, or o'Malley poking yan in the eyes and striking before yan recovers.

This is a very possible outcome, Omalley knows how to milk a foul.

 

[RageQuitLord]

I want to see the fight, but more from freak show point of view.
I say that because rankings wise Sean has never beaten anyone that's ranked, and he really doesn't deserve to be there.

I would love for Yan to beat the brakes off of O'Malley but this is MMA...who the fuck knows.

I agree that Yan is the better fighter all around, but so was GSP when Serra flattened him so I guess that's why we watch sir.

Stop calling everyone sir it's annoying you fuzzy little critter

 

[Ozze]

Sean can fight really long and get a decision by point fighting.

 

[StonedLemur]

Stop calling everyone sir it's annoying you fuzzy little critter

Then block me because I'm not going to stop the way I speak.

I don't go around telling people how to talk, because I don't care... grow up.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Suga Shin has legit power and is a really good striker. I wanted to see him fight Sandhagen for the lankyweight belt.

 

[weaponzero2k2]

Let's go from grappling-centric all the way to boxing-centric rulesets.

1. Who would be more likely to win if this was a grappling-only match?
2. Who would be more likely to win an MMA fight?
3. Who would be more likely to win a kickboxing fight?
4. Who would be more likely to win a boxing match?

The answer, for every single one of the above, is Petr IMO. He is literally better everywhere. If you pressed me to be creative and even come up with a POSSIBLE way Sean can win, it is only via stealing a first round where basically nothing happens, then being awarded a controversial second round on 2 judges cards that most fans think he lost, then emphatically losing the third yet winning a SD.

Yet many pro fighters... to include guys who I know do decent analysis... have this pained look on their face and lament how "hard" it is to pick a winner. None of them really explain it well as to why it is hard (no I didn't watch all 50 or whatever interviews) but I am legit shocked so many said this. This is the LEAST hard analysis ever... Petr is better literally everywhere. They flat-out aren't on the same level. Or am I missing something?

if Yan keeps giving away 1 1/2 rounds every fight, will struggle to beat anyone

 

[JKS]

This being a 3 round fight highly works in Sean's favor. Both guys get better as the fight goes on. But Sean is a quick starter while Yan takes his time more.

If Sean has a good first round and then rides the momentum into round 2 he can win a 29-28 decision here. Peter will certainly come on very strong in round 2 and more so in round 3. If Sean doesn't start strong and loses the first, Yan will clearly win. That first round will be key for Sean.

That's how I expect this fight to go. Sean round 1, Yan with a big round 3, and 2 will be the deciding round.

 

[15089371]

I don't know what else you're expecting. 3/4 picks Yann and 1/4 O'Malley which seems like an expected split. It's not outrageous for some to pick Sean, the fact that it's a 3 rounder makes it interesting. Some also just pick based on gut instincts rather than pure analysis, it's not always so black and white, especially in this sport. Even if one agrees to all the criteria you mentioned, one can still pick against Yann just because they have a feeling an upset will happen.

 

[Ghostoftheville]

I didn't care about this fight until this thread. Now I'm rooting for the sugar show