am I missing something with Petr/Sean?

[CroCopsLHK]

It's all a matter of if Yan has fallen and if O'Malley has risen

Its a tough one for Sean though. Yan barely lost to Aljamain. That's about it. He's the former champ and is still much more violent and effective than Sean. Who knows though

 

[BJJ Lover]

I'd be decently confident on a "Yan by a bunch of points" bet if they grappled, but to each their own.

You could be right, it just doesn't seem like Yan's ground game is tailored for sports BJJ. He knows just enough to not get submitted and ground and pound.

 

[Jorge Luis Borges]

Just a reminder that this is not a sport and cannot be taken seriously.

You've got a really solid point with: 'WME matchmaking is very poor'. Going from there to 'not a sport' is melodramatic.

 

[CroCopsLHK]

O'Malley hasn't looked great against the tip of the heap though

 

[sonhow]

O'Malley is pretty darn good though. If his legs work enough he might win.
I say this as someone who thinks Yan might be the most skilled fighter out of any weight class.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Let's go from grappling-centric all the way to boxing-centric rulesets.

1. Who would be more likely to win if this was a grappling-only match?
2. Who would be more likely to win an MMA fight?
3. Who would be more likely to win a kickboxing fight?
4. Who would be more likely to win a boxing match?

The answer, for every single one of the above, is Petr IMO. He is literally better everywhere. If you pressed me to be creative and even come up with a POSSIBLE way Sean can win, it is only via stealing a first round where basically nothing happens, then being awarded a controversial second round on 2 judges cards that most fans think he lost, then emphatically losing the third yet winning a SD.

Yet many pro fighters... to include guys who I know do decent analysis... have this pained look on their face and lament how "hard" it is to pick a winner. None of them really explain it well as to why it is hard (no I didn't watch all 50 or whatever interviews) but I am legit shocked so many said this. This is the LEAST hard analysis ever... Petr is better literally everywhere. They flat-out aren't on the same level. Or am I missing something?

I think the mistake you are making is believing these predictions are sincere and not just a function of these pros having met Suga once and never having met Yan. I stopped listening to these videos a while back when something like 95% of pros picked Adesanya to beat Blachowicz only for Adesanya to be lose rather dominantly.

I think most who understand the sport and are being sincere know Sean doesn't have much more than a punchers chance. The only x-factor being that Petr is a notoriously slow starter with a habit of giving the first round away.

 

[Guy LeDouche]

I love that people are saying O’Malley is top level.
Who the hell has he beaten to warrant that?

 

[Tweak896]

I think if anyone finishes it'll be Yan to send a message. That said he seemed to fight kind of passively in his last fight with Sterling, not putting the pressure like he normally does. If the fight coasts to decision I could see it getting close. Depends on what Yan shows up honestly. Could be a fairly slow fight. Wouldn't put money on Sean.

 

[RageQuitLord]

Then block me because I'm not going to stop the way I speak.

I don't go around telling people how to talk, because I don't care... grow up.

Bro...... You good?

 

[GordoBarraBJJ]

It's a 3 round fight and Yan is known as a slow starter. So he could steal a decision (close).

I honestly don't see him making it out of the 2nd round (sean) though.

But stranger things have happened.

It should be Yan vs Chito IMO. Not Yan vs Chito's leftovers.

 

[Kratos94]

No, Yan will run over O'Malley and it won't be close.

 

[WMMA Enjoyer]

If Sean loses this will be the end of his career.

 

[WMMA Enjoyer]

I love that people are saying O’Malley is top level.
Who the hell has he beaten to warrant that?

And the marketing around him will make you forget he got absolutely destroyed by Chito in the first round, who is a lesser fighter than Pyotr.

 

[marvinparsons]

For all those saying it shouldn't be made, I disagree wholeheartedly. It's an intriguing fight. If O'Malley isn't good enough it'll show and quickly. It is put up or shut up time.

I love fights like this where you legit don't know how it'll go down. It could be like Connor-Aldo or it could be like Ortega-Holloway.

We know Yan is good. O'Malley looks all-world at times, but it's impossible to tell given the level of competition he has faced thus far.

 

[Domitian]

I need pics of Sean's girlfriend who's getting passed around.

Yan is easily the more well rounded fighter and could maybe beat Sean with his grappling alone. The thing about Petr though is his fight IQ is questionable.

 

[FriskyRandy]

They were probably instructed by WME not to speak ill of their chosen star

So chosen they gave him the hardest match up in the division.

 

[Istryker]

It’s not a fight that should be happening. Sean hasn’t beaten a single ranked fighter in his 5 years in the UFC, why is he now in a #1 contender fight instead of Chito or Merab? It’s disgusting that they’re trying to rocket him up to the belt like this without beating anyone in front of him. Just a reminder that this is not a sport and cannot be taken seriously.

as for the fight itself, even though Yan is much more skilled and experienced, in 3 rounds the dimensions and style matchup favors the taller, longer front runner in O’Malley over the shorter, slower starting Yan. UFC did this deliberately because it’s the most winnable high ranked fight they could give him stylistically, I expect a corrupt SD robbery in Sugarlegs favor.

^^^^

This guy is scared.

 

[StonedLemur]

Bro...... You good?

Are you?

 

[chs140]

Let's go from grappling-centric all the way to boxing-centric rulesets.

1. Who would be more likely to win if this was a grappling-only match?
2. Who would be more likely to win an MMA fight?
3. Who would be more likely to win a kickboxing fight?
4. Who would be more likely to win a boxing match?

The answer, for every single one of the above, is Petr IMO. He is literally better everywhere. If you pressed me to be creative and even come up with a POSSIBLE way Sean can win, it is only via stealing a first round where basically nothing happens, then being awarded a controversial second round on 2 judges cards that most fans think he lost, then emphatically losing the third yet winning a SD.

Yet many pro fighters... to include guys who I know do decent analysis... have this pained look on their face and lament how "hard" it is to pick a winner. None of them really explain it well as to why it is hard (no I didn't watch all 50 or whatever interviews) but I am legit shocked so many said this. This is the LEAST hard analysis ever... Petr is better literally everywhere. They flat-out aren't on the same level. Or am I missing something?

And I bet you thought the same thing about aljo.
Petr starts way too slow. Sean knew what he was doing taking this fight. He might lose, but he has an obvious pathway to victory.
Also, where is this great vaunted ground game you speak of? He made HUGE GLARING mistakes in his last fight. At least Sean competes.
This petr fan base is delusional.

 

[markys00]

Sean is a glass cannon. People tend to underestimate his standup because he looks like a clown. Yan is very technically sound but he is not a power puncher. Yan is also a slow starter. Yan has a big reach/height disadvantage but he has shown he can fight taller fighters. Yan does outclass opponents but it is rarely an easy fight where he steamrolls the opponent. Yan is the betting favorite. He is most likely going to win by decision but the odds should be closer.

Do you know what the term glass cannon means? He is NOT that