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Eh, I would expect Smith to beat Alex fairly handily in a FPI match. Probably even submit him. He's a fairly legit Black Belt and held his own far better than I expected him to against Glover in their match (though Teixeira was competing under less than desirable circumstances admittedly). I know Alex has put in the time on the mats to improve his defensive grappling in an MMA context (and even there he's been shown not to be unassailable)... but that's a different game from the "playful" rolling of a no-gi match. He just doesn't have the reps for this kind of contest.
In MMA, though? At this stage of each man's respective career? I'd favor Alex, probably by leg kick/body shot TKO or comfortable Decision. I'd give Smith like a 20-30% chance to pull off a Sub assuming he comes in with his singlet & wrestling shoes.
It would be hilarious as hell if Pereira wins the 205 strap and then gets subbed by Smith. I didn't expect the "stoic" Pereira to get so butthurt over someone saying he won't enjoy reach and size advantages at his natural weight class.
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