UFN 116 - Rockhold vs Branch - Pittsburgh

[SBJJ]

As much as I'd love to win a bet on a super dog in Reyes. The second best scenario would be Perry KO in 10 seconds so we can get an even better price on his next fight

 

[wack3d]

Reys fight from a couple weeks ago can be seen here:

(1:52 ish)
facebook.com/fightcluboc/videos/vb.156739744376343/1628065427243760/?type=2&theater

 

[mmaHobbyist]

As much as I'd love to win a bet on a super dog in Reyes. The second best scenario would be Perry KO in 10 seconds so we can get an even better price on his next fight

Not sure why so much hate on Platinum Perry? I won 2g on him vs Ellenberger, no judges = easy wins.

 

[Antagonist88]

Feel like I may wind up on Arantes in some capacity. Sanders leaves himself open on the feet pretty often, and is pretty loose in scrambles while Arantes has excellent sweeps and transitions. Jerrod Sanders holding Arantes down for a round is concerning though

 

[ChoKuRei]

Am i the only one who likes moraes here vs usman? I can see usman being the fav for sure... but i have this strange image in my mind, moraes has usmans back in the 2nd rnd... moraes' face isa bit bloody from
Getting smacked around in the first round, but ends up getting a RNC sub in late rnd 2. What is he like +300 or higher. I like that shit. Lets get it baby i wanna lay some juice this weekend

 

[mmaHobbyist]

Am i the only one who likes moraes here vs usman? I can see usman being the fav for sure... but i have this strange image in my mind, moraes has usmans back in the 2nd rnd... moraes' face isa bit bloody from
Getting smacked around in the first round, but ends up getting a RNC sub in late rnd 2. What is he like +300 or higher. I like that shit. Lets get it baby i wanna lay some juice this weekend

Another poster woke up from a coma. Moraes +500

 

[SBJJ]

Not sure why so much hate on Platinum Perry? I won 2g on him vs Ellenberger, no judges = easy wins.

Read that PBP. I was big on Perry and even said after rd 1 he'd stop Jake.

But he for sure has a ceiling when it comes to his style and I'll be happy to make money fading him against a certain caliber of fighter just like I was making money on him against a certain type of fighter

 

[mmaHobbyist]

I don't think I have skill to recognize which style have what ceiling but at 25yo, Platinum will continue to improve. It is possible Alves recognize Platinum is very bad style for him, just like Nick Hein recognize Zabit is a killer. Once a fighter know a ufc belt is out of reach, they just want a winnable fight. I was going to lay 2-3 unit on Platinum Berry at -175, no problem laying 10 unit at -140 vs Alves beach body.

 

[waiguoren]

Am i the only one who likes moraes here vs usman? I can see usman being the fav for sure... but i have this strange image in my mind, moraes has usmans back in the 2nd rnd... moraes' face isa bit bloody from
Getting smacked around in the first round, but ends up getting a RNC sub in late rnd 2. What is he like +300 or higher. I like that shit. Lets get it baby i wanna lay some juice this weekend

I could definitely see it although I don't expect it. In a sport full of goofs, Moraes might be the goofiest of them all. Weird shit happens in his fights and at the end of the day he is a winner.

 

[wack3d]

I don't think I have skill to recognize which style have what ceiling but at 25yo, Platinum will continue to improve. It is possible Alves recognize Platinum is very bad style for him, just like Nick Hein recognize Zabit is a killer. Once a fighter know a ufc belt is out of reach, they just want a winnable fight. I was going to lay 2-3 unit on Platinum Berry at -175, no problem laying 10 unit at -140 vs Alves beach body.

lol are you really suggesting Alves got scared and backed out of the fight? he has been in there with the best in the world why would he be scared of a one dimentional B-level fighter

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Can anybody explain why Smith isn't a clear fave over Lombard? Lombard is 39 and 0-3 since failing the steroids test. Feels like he is washed and Smith is clearly better, don't see how this is priced as a coinflip.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Sanders worries me so I took Ledet instead.

I think Sanders smokes Arantes, but I agree that he's my biggest concern. As I mentioned earlier Ledet will definitely go in a couple parlays. I'll probably make the same one with Justin in it. I might also hedge on Felipe by submission prop. That is the only way I see Sanders losing However, I think that he likely learned a LOT in his fight with Alcantarac and from now on will be minding where he leaves his limbs. That was definitely a learning experience for sure. I went back and watched that fight yesterday and I still don't know how the referee did not stop that shit LOL

 

[danareem]

Can anybody explain why Smith isn't a clear fave over Lombard? Lombard is 39 and 0-3 since failing the steroids test. Feels like he is washed and Smith is clearly better, don't see how this is priced as a coinflip.

Smith is basically a pure Muay Thai guy with limited wrestling/ground game ircc. He was dominated last fight vs Sanchez, but managed to finish in the last round.
Lombard is dangerous the first 7.5 mins, then he fades and loses focus.
Lombards reputation and Smiths limitations are factored into the coinflip odds, imo.
Prediction: somebody getting finished within 2.5 rounds
I would slightly favor Smith due to Hectors tendency to doze off midfight, and how he struggles with long rangy fighters. Also his chin is probably diminished at this point.

I see Burns/Saggo odds priced more wrongly tbh

 

[NinjaCat456]

For fuck sake it's always the fight I've got the most investment in that gets scratched from the card. Was so pleased at not just getting Alves at +150 but also at finding a lovely over/under rounds freeroll opportunity on this fight. All flushed down the u-bend now. Excellent.

Suppose betsafe will be the first putting the new Perry/Reyes lines up for us UK lot?

 

[Dick]

If I had multiple bets on Perry and a couple parlays when he was at + odds, will those same odds get carried over even though there was an opponent change?

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Smith is basically a pure Muay Thai guy with limited wrestling/ground game ircc. He was dominated last fight vs Sanchez, but managed to finish in the last round.
Lombard is dangerous the first 7.5 mins, then he fades and loses focus.
Lombards reputation and Smiths limitations are factored into the coinflip odds, imo.
Prediction: somebody getting finished within 2.5 rounds
I would slightly favor Smith due to Hectors tendency to doze off midfight, and how he struggles with long rangy fighters. Also his chin is probably diminished at this point.

I see Burns/Saggo odds priced more wrongly tbh

Yeah, I see how Smith is seen as an unreliable asset since he has yet to put together a solid fight end to end in his UFC return in spite of being 3-1.

But at the same time, you gotta respect Smith's finishing power. He has finished 8 of his last 11 fights and at this stage I don't think Lombard is much better than the guys that Smith was beating up in between UFC stints.

Also being 39 and having a reputation built on PED's is a dangerous combination. Look at how bad Gilbert Melendez has been since his suspension and he's only 35. I think Smith is finishing this ITD a good % of the time.

 

[Subli]

If I had multiple bets on Perry and a couple parlays when he was at + odds, will those same odds get carried over even though there was an opponent change?

Of course Not ..... All bets you had on Perry will get voided.

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

Last week was a big let down, broke even but yet another week where varying my unit size ended up costing me big profits. I went 2-2 on bets, cashed on Latifi and Vieira but lost on Melendez and Shechenko. I vary my unit size between 1-5 units, although I rarely bet 1 unit and I rarely bet 5 on anything, most of my bets are 2-4 untis. I did however have a 5 unit max bet on Shevchenko which ended up costing me, big disappointment.

I have a 24% ROI on MMA this year, thats a strong number, but that number would be even higher if I didn't vary my unit size. Luca Fury bets 4 units on everything, and occasionally does 5 unit bets. I'm considering just betting the same amount on every fight now.

Shevchenko losing that split was a tough loss to take. Her whole gameplan was centred around what Nunes was doing. Shevchenko was too patient, too willing to be on the backfoot, too much waiting to counter. It seems like Shevchenko learnt nothing from the 1st fight, she was also too patient in that fight and it costed her the 1st and 2nd round. You think she'd would want to exploit Nunes' weakness in the 2nd fight, but no, she did the exact same thing she had done in the 1st, instead it was Nunes that had made the adjustments.

Shevchenko played it safe, both girls did but they fought Nunes' fight. Nunes controlled the centre and she controlled the pace. The fight really comes down to how you score the 3rd round, it could have gone either way but I thought Nunes was the rightful winner. It seems like Shevchenko can't break her mould as a counter striker, she struggles to lead and she is too damn patient, she's super talented but she's gotta let it go more. Reminds me of Masvidal, another super talented striker that has lost fights due to a lack of activity.

Shevchnko needs to go educate herself on MMA judging and maybe bring in an MMA coach because he gameplan vs Nunes was bad and it costed her the fight.

This week I already got 4 units on Ledet/Jotko double, those are quality fighters, making bank off fading Uriah Hall and that big boy gonna get boxed up by Ledet.

 

[Antagonist88]

Last week was a big let down, broke even but yet another week where varying my unit size ended up costing me big profits. I went 2-2 on bets, cashed on Latifi and Vieira but lost on Melendez and Shechenko. I vary my unit size between 1-5 units, although I rarely bet 1 unit and I rarely bet 5 on anything, most of my bets are 2-4 untis. I did however have a 5 unit max bet on Shevchenko which ended up costing me, big disappointment.

I have a 24% ROI on MMA this year, thats a strong number, but that number would be even higher if I didn't vary my unit size. Luca Fury bets 4 units on everything, and occasionally does 5 unit bets. I'm considering just betting the same amount on every fight now.

Shevchenko losing that split was a tough loss to take. Her whole gameplan was centred around what Nunes was doing. Shevchenko was too patient, too willing to be on the backfoot, too much waiting to counter. It seems like Shevchenko learnt nothing from the 1st fight, she was also too patient in that fight and it costed her the 1st and 2nd round. You think she'd would want to exploit Nunes' weakness in the 2nd fight, but no, she did the exact same thing she had done in the 1st, instead it was Nunes that had made the adjustments.

Shevchenko played it safe, both girls did but they fought Nunes' fight. Nunes controlled the centre and she controlled the pace. The fight really comes down to how you score the 3rd round, it could have gone either way but I thought Nunes was the rightful winner. It seems like Shevchenko can't break her mould as a counter striker, she struggles to lead and she is too damn patient, she's super talented but she's gotta let it go more. Reminds me of Masvidal, another super talented striker that has lost fights due to a lack of activity.

Shevchnko needs to go educate herself on MMA judging and maybe bring in an MMA coach because he gameplan vs Nunes was bad and it costed her the fight.

This week I already got 4 units on Ledet/Jotko double, those are quality fighters, making bank off fading Uriah Hall and that big boy gonna get boxed up by Ledet.

Unit size doesn't actually affect ROI, but I understand the frustration.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

You guys convinced me that Moraes isn't a great upset candidate vs Usman, but y'all are crazy if you think he's above Lawler, Maia, and Wonderboy. I would jam like half the money I own on +100 for any of those guys vs him

He hasn't ended a fight early against anybody who belongs in UFC, and he wasn't invulnerable vs Alves + Edwards. Yeah the Strickland + Yakovlev fights were great, but there's a HUGE diff between dominating those guys and being faves vs the monsters at the top of 170.

And he is a good athlete and his cardio looks great, but he was only a division II college wrestler which I think says something about his athleticism not being outlier amazing.

I don't care if he wrestled for the Division VII Fake Wrrasslin' University Wrasslers LOL Usman is an absolute monster and MMA wrestling is far different than amateur wrestling. See St Pierre, Georges for reference. In fact, I think Usman's game is like GSP 2.0 right now. His striking is coming on better and better under Henri Hooft and his fight IQ is very high. He has excellent fight analysis as he does commentary for Titan FC cards.

As others have mentioned already, he's becoming a real contender and quick. His striking is very long and well put together as he throws volume and not just one strike at a time. Additionally, off of his striking he can transition seamlessly into his takedowns. He does this better than anybody in the sport right now and it reminds me of prime GSP and Rashad Evans.

Further, his striking fundamentals are remarkably technical from a defensive standpoint and his offense is starting to be a major factor as he drenches his opponent in combinations. Indeed, what makes him frightening, is the fact that he has cardio for days and can keep the same pace for as long is the fight goes. While not a big name, Sean Strickland is a beast, and Usman just walked him down and beat the shit out of him.

Honestly, I think Usman would smoke Wonderboy at this point and I would be on him at anything between -120 or better vs. Robbie. As for, Maia, well, it would basically be a repeat of the Brazilians fight against worldly because Demien couldn't take him down and want to get lit up on the feet.

I think he gets his first UFC knock out this week. Sergio will fatigue and Usman will be right there in his face drowning him in combinations until he crumbles.