GILLESPIE VS GONZALEZ
Gregor Gillespie (9-0 MMA ; 2-0 UFC)
-71" reach
-wrestling background (4 times div 1 All-American champion, D1 NCAA national champ)
-pro since 2014
-grinder fighter, looking to get guys down, good takedowns
-training at Bellmore Kickboxing Academy
vs Glaico Franca (16-5 MMA ; 1-2 UFC) (W - DEC)
-6" reach advantage for Franca
-R1 : Franca dominated the striking but Gillespie got 3 TDs and dominated the ground. Franca slowed down already at the end of the round. R1 for GG
-R2 : GG rocked hard a few times, saved by his wrestling, GG ended the round on top, prob Franca round, though
-R3 : Gillespie's round via ground control
-GG working relentless on his wrestling
vs Andrew Holbrook (12-3 MMA ; 2-3 UFC) (W - R1 - KO)
-1" reach advantage for GG
-Holbrook's chin cracked after the first exchange, not so much to take from this fight.
Jason Gonzalez (11-3 MMA ; 1-1 UFC)
-74" reach
-huge lightweight, 6'2", tall and solid upper body
-pro since 2011
-training at Millennia MMA but also had some sparring sessions at Kings MMA
-susceptible to TDs, question marks on his chin
vs Drew Dober (18-8 MMA ; 4-4-1 UFC) (L - R1 - KO)
-4" reach advantage for Gonzalez
-Dober getting the better strikes and KOed Gonzalez
-Gonzalez pretty hittable in this fight and his chin just couldn't hold..
vs JC Cotrell (17-5 MMA ; 0-2 UFC) (W - R1 - SUB)
-3" reach advantage for Gonzalez
-R1 Cotrell getting the TD after being rocked, Gonzales getting up and getting the SUB win
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TLDR / Conclusions
-Gonzalez is a freaking long dude and he may have a chance at hurting GG on feet. His chin is not the best, but I think GG will look to wrestle and not stay in striking range against a guy who has 3" reach advantage.
-Even though Gonzalez has some ways to win, I think GG will wrestlefuck him and lay on him for three rounds for a 30-27 decision.
My bet for this fight is 2.5 units over 1.5 rounds @ 1.70 / -140.