UFN 116 - Rockhold vs Branch - Pittsburgh | Page 14

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Sep 4, 2017.

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  1. Sham5916910 Yellow Card

    Sham5916910
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    Gg will finish this guys awful on bottom see cottrell and abner fight on tuf. Hes also never been to a decision and defo has a shit chin. Some guy kod him in one minute, his fight before his ufc debut he was in all sorts of bother and got dropped and and pillow fisted dober dropped him like hed been shot
     
    #261
  2. piglord Brown Belt

    piglord
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    reality check, i'm pretty much break even for the year but would be up £4822 if my only gambling was the ufc.

    that's so appauling. i REALLY need to be more disciplined.
     
    #262
  3. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

    MMA Goodfella
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    Totally agree my brother. I was fortunate enough to get Gilbert at -120 which I believe is an excellent line as I think he should be around -170 or so.

    TLDR at bottom:

    The only reason I won't bet more than the two units I got on Burns is because of the cardio factor. Stylistically, these two are basically mirror images of one another, both high level BJJ black belts with decent striking. However, Gilbert is a few rungs on the ladder above Saggo in a straight up BJJ match. Furthermore, if we are gauging them on a scale from 1 to 10 regarding pure athleticism, speed and power, I would have Gilbert around a 7.5 whereas Jason would fall into the 5 to 5 1/2 area.

    Essentially, Saggo is actually reminiscent of a 155 pounds Gerald Meerschaert, with a bit more pop on his punches. By this comparison though, I mean that both are long and lanky who work well on the fringe and have excellent submission grappling skills. Moreover, both are classic overachievers. However, despite Jason's knockout victory over Justin Salas and Josh Shockley, he's never shown himself to be a one shot, one kill type of guy. The two fighters he scored TKO's over are mediocre at best, and I believe that to be outliers concerning his true knock out ability.

    Jason is 13-2 overall but hasn't really fought the upper level opposition and when he has stepped up in competition he has lost both fights. Losing to both Paul Felder and Rustam Khabilov respectively. His biggest win was a SD victory against a mid-tier Leandro Silva, who has some of the most anemic offensive output in LW history.

    Meanwhile, Gilbert has shown well rounded skills throughout his professional tenure, including some rare knock out power of his own. The finishes via strikes came in a starching of a very formidable Paulo Teixeira and a very good regional fighter in Paulo Goncalves Silva. Point being, Gil is not a complete stiff in the striking department and also shows that he has multiple paths to victory – even if the knockout is the least likely of the three.

    It should also be noted that despite his suspect gas tank, Gil has shown the capacity – and willingness — to fight through adversity to get the win. This was demonstrated in his tilt against Brazilian Cowboy Alex Oliveira. It was Cowboys Octagon debut, and no one knew who he was, let alone Gilbert who had to face him without any time to prepare for his style. Early on Cowboy was taking it to Gilbert, but the Brazilian BJJ specialist remained poised and snatched a submission in the final stanza. This victory looks much better in hindsight given how good Oliveira has become.

    Re: Burns cardio: Traditionally, Gil fades when he's facing a striker who can chew him up on my feet and stop his takedowns. i.e. Rashid Magomedov — a terrible stylistic MU for Burns. Then his only other loss came to Brazilian human fire hydrant that is Michel Prazeres. Not a bad loss considering "Trator" is on a 5-fight win streak while having won 7 of his last 8 to boot. Impressively, the only setback for Trattor came against top contender Kevin Lee. One more crazy statistic: the combined and win-loss record of the two aforementioned fighters that beat Burns is a remarkable 40-4 overall. Not bad losses at all. LOL

    TLDR: The abbreviated version of this fight analysis is that Burns should win so long as his cardio holds up. He's excellent early but has historically had a propensity for slowly fading as the minutes tick by. Nevertheless, he holds all the pertinent advantages both standing and on the mat. Additionally, Burns is faster, stronger and more athletic. The only advantage that I see Jason having here is possibly in the conditioning if it goes deep into the fight. Still yet, I believe that Gilbert has enough in the tank to pull out the victory over a fighter in Saggo.

    Now, Saggo is not the type a fighter who has historically troubled Burns. He's not going to overwhelm him pressure or piece him up with his boxing, and I'm not even sure if he will even look for the takedown. It will most likely be a low level kick boxing match with Gilbert hitting the occasional takedown and scoring points with top with a bit of top control.

    I do think that Saggo round three prop would be a solid play however.

    Sorry so long but I wanted try and cover all the bases.
     
    #263
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  4. piglord Brown Belt

    piglord
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    #264
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  5. vkram Brown Belt

    vkram
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    Alex Reyes is 13-2, 13 fight wins streak. All his wins are by finish (9 by T/KO and 4 by submission).
     
    #265
  6. Joseph Budden Yellow Card

    Joseph Budden
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    Who the fook is that guy
     
    #266
  7. 1PunchKO Senior Moderator

    1PunchKO
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    His best win is Joshua Aveles who's decent but he hasn't fought in 2 years and looks to be fighting up a weight class?
     
    #267
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  8. vkram Brown Belt

    vkram
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    Some highlight reels of Alex Reyes

    From 2013


    From 2015
     
    #268
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  9. vkram Brown Belt

    vkram
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    According to Tapology he fought in August (Sherdog doesn't show that).
     
    #269
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  10. Sham5916910 Yellow Card

    Sham5916910
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    He fought in august but yeah seems to be a lw
     
    #270
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  11. rev0lver Orange Belt

    rev0lver
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    Will wait to study tape but honestly first look he doesn't seem bad at all. Only 30, his 2 losses both came 10 years ago, finished every fight since then, def some cans in there but he's beat decent fighters as well. Interested to know how actively he's been training since he hasn't fought for 2 years (edit - apparently had a recent fight in August which is good). Apparently fights at LW but he's still 1 inch taller than Perry
     
    #271
  12. lifeisgood12345 Orange Belt

    lifeisgood12345
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    In a vaccuum looks like he should be about a +300 dog to Perry.

    But fighting a weight class up on 3 days notice is a tricky wrinkle. Hard to say what to do with this one.
     
    #272
  13. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    Lol, got me on that one
     
    #273
  14. vkram Brown Belt

    vkram
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    Reyes seems to be mainly a grappler to me. In the highlight video from 2013 he said that he was a blue belt under Robert Drysdale, so by now he should either be a purple or a brown belt. We haven't really seen that much of Perry on the ground or his TDD.
     
    #274
  15. wack3d Silver Belt

    wack3d
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    Alex Reyes fought a few weeks ago (quick finish) so should be in good shape.. train at Team Oyama and is a BJJ black belt.. fought some fights at catchweigh 160 (not sure why) and had at least one fight 170 have not watched any tape yet
     
    #275
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  16. mmaHobbyist Orange Belt

    mmaHobbyist
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    Alex Reyes last fight is over 24 months ago. Oh boy! Sheep usually take the fight to get slaughter so he can get a 2nd fight with full camp at his weight class. Platinum Berry -400, knew it.
     
    #276
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2017
  17. Jamah Green Belt

    Jamah
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    It was the 24th of August of 2017. He won by TKO 1 minute into the fight.
     
    #277
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  18. lifeisgood12345 Orange Belt

    lifeisgood12345
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    Reyes fought at 155 three weeks ago. Is there much precedent of a guy fighting a weight class up with such late notice having success? Feels like a really tough spot to step into.
     
    #278
  19. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Yea, I will likely have Rock in a parlay as well. Likely with Ledet who I also think cruises to victory.

    That said, I'm trying to see if there is any other angle to play this fight. I'm just a wee bit wary of Luke Rockhold making a comeback after damaging his knee so bad. David Branch is no pushover and in fact, is one of the most underrated fighters on the UFC roster, and MMA as a whole. He has very solid fundamental boxing technique, he hits hard, he's very strong, and is a Renzo Gracie BJJ black belt. Moreover, he's a gorilla at 185 pounds. He is even superstrong at 205 lbs. where he won a WSOF title and actually took Rumble 3 grueling rounds. That says a lot.

    I just worry a bit with Luke making his comeback after the injury that he may be rusty early and if he doesn't put Branch away in the first two stanzas, he might slow down significantly in the championship rounds and lose a close decision. Of course this is not very likely, and if Rockhold is even 70% of the fighter that he was before his absence, he has the skill set to run roughshod over Branch. If he is completely healed up and in the same shape he was prior to the rematch with Michael Bisping, he will be taking a blowtorch and roasting David branch alive.

    But we are playing the odds here and with Luke almost a 5 to 1 favorite it's hard to lay that type of juice with so many variables unaccounted for. I might play the Rockhold by TKO prop small and put a flier on DB via the DEC prop for action.
     
    #279
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  20. vkram Brown Belt

    vkram
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