hope i don't regret this, but i took burns
he's the better bjj'er, which is saggo's best asset... and he's more explosive on the feet, i think. it could end up being a close decision if indeed it goes that far, which it could if it stays standing, but i think he's bettable right now at -135 (took -145 and -135)
i thought about the anthony smith opener, but i'd rather just live bet him. it's funny, he used to be someone i'd fade after the first, now he's improved that bigtime and also lombard's cardio is just horrible
Totally agree my brother. I was fortunate enough to get Gilbert at -120 which I believe is an excellent line as I think he should be around -170 or so.
TLDR at bottom:
The only reason I won't bet more than the two units I got on Burns is because of the cardio factor. Stylistically, these two are basically mirror images of one another, both high level BJJ black belts with decent striking. However, Gilbert is a few rungs on the ladder above Saggo in a straight up BJJ match. Furthermore, if we are gauging them on a scale from 1 to 10 regarding pure athleticism, speed and power, I would have Gilbert around a 7.5 whereas Jason would fall into the 5 to 5 1/2 area.
Essentially, Saggo is actually reminiscent of a 155 pounds Gerald Meerschaert, with a bit more pop on his punches. By this comparison though, I mean that both are long and lanky who work well on the fringe and have excellent submission grappling skills. Moreover, both are classic overachievers. However, despite Jason's knockout victory over Justin Salas and Josh Shockley, he's never shown himself to be a one shot, one kill type of guy. The two fighters he scored TKO's over are mediocre at best, and I believe that to be outliers concerning his true knock out ability.
Jason is 13-2 overall but hasn't really fought the upper level opposition and when he has stepped up in competition he has lost both fights. Losing to both Paul Felder and Rustam Khabilov respectively. His biggest win was a SD victory against a mid-tier Leandro Silva, who has some of the most anemic offensive output in LW history.
Meanwhile, Gilbert has shown well rounded skills throughout his professional tenure, including some rare knock out power of his own. The finishes via strikes came in a starching of a very formidable Paulo Teixeira and a very good regional fighter in Paulo Goncalves Silva. Point being, Gil is not a complete stiff in the striking department and also shows that he has multiple paths to victory – even if the knockout is the least likely of the three.
It should also be noted that despite his suspect gas tank, Gil has shown the capacity – and willingness — to fight through adversity to get the win. This was demonstrated in his tilt against Brazilian Cowboy Alex Oliveira. It was Cowboys Octagon debut, and no one knew who he was, let alone Gilbert who had to face him without any time to prepare for his style. Early on Cowboy was taking it to Gilbert, but the Brazilian BJJ specialist remained poised and snatched a submission in the final stanza. This victory looks much better in hindsight given how good Oliveira has become.
Re: Burns cardio: Traditionally, Gil fades when he's facing a striker who can chew him up on my feet and stop his takedowns. i.e. Rashid Magomedov — a terrible stylistic MU for Burns. Then his only other loss came to Brazilian human fire hydrant that is Michel Prazeres. Not a bad loss considering "Trator" is on a 5-fight win streak while having won 7 of his last 8 to boot. Impressively, the only setback for Trattor came against top contender Kevin Lee. One more crazy statistic: the combined and win-loss record of the two aforementioned fighters that beat Burns is a remarkable 40-4 overall. Not bad losses at all. LOL
TLDR: The abbreviated version of this fight analysis is that Burns should win so long as his cardio holds up. He's excellent early but has historically had a propensity for slowly fading as the minutes tick by. Nevertheless, he holds all the pertinent advantages both standing and on the mat. Additionally, Burns is faster, stronger and more athletic. The only advantage that I see Jason having here is possibly in the conditioning if it goes deep into the fight. Still yet, I believe that Gilbert has enough in the tank to pull out the victory over a fighter in Saggo.
Now, Saggo is not the type a fighter who has historically troubled Burns. He's not going to overwhelm him pressure or piece him up with his boxing, and I'm not even sure if he will even look for the takedown. It will most likely be a low level kick boxing match with Gilbert hitting the occasional takedown and scoring points with top with a bit of top control.
I do think that Saggo round three prop would be a solid play however.
Sorry so long but I wanted try and cover all the bases.
