UFN 116 - Rockhold vs Branch - Pittsburgh

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Sep 4, 2017.

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  1. Zee's MMA Subscriber

    Zee's MMA Subscriber Green Belt

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    Fact is, if I didn't vary my unit size, my overall ROI would be higher this year but I get what you are saying.
     
  2. Antagonist88

    Antagonist88 Green Belt

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    Oh you mean profit and not actual ROI%, got it.
     
  3. Zee's MMA Subscriber

    Zee's MMA Subscriber Green Belt

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    My overall profit and ROI% would be higher if I didn't vary unit size is my point. And unit sizing does affect ROI% in the longterm, obviously.
     
  4. Antagonist88

    Antagonist88 Green Belt

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    I don't want to derail the thread for a math discussion, but the sizing does not effect the percentage. If you bet $100 or $450 on a +200, the ROI is still 200% in both cases. And if you lose, the ROI is -100% in both cases. If you bet 0.5u or 10u on a -125, the ROI is 80% in both scenarios. It's a percentage, so it's resistant considering the numerator (profit) and denominator (wager) change at the same rate. Increasing or decreasing the risk will not alter the percentage, as the profit will increase or decrease proportionally given the odds.

    Really no point in my writing that out since it doesn't really matter and I think we're just misunderstanding each other.
     
  5. Zee's MMA Subscriber

    Zee's MMA Subscriber Green Belt

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    Yes I know varying unit size doesn't effect the ROI% of the individual play, but as a collective....

    Look at it like this, it's simple

    5U Shevchenko @1.85
    3U Latifi @2.20

    vs

    4U Shevchenko @1.85
    4U Latifi @2.20

    Which one has the higher combined ROI? obviously the 4U plays

    I think you are right we are just misunderstanding eachother.
     
  6. Sadistics

    Sadistics Green Belt

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    Odd, Rockhold/Branch props were pulled from 5d. Wonder what prop is about to be crazy juiced.
     
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  7. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Yep Arantes by sub is prob the right hedge.
     
  8. Rapidryan88

    Rapidryan88 Green Belt

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    the plus money is going to peoples heads i thinl. Think rockhold takes this easily.
     
  9. DarkneT

    DarkneT Generic Russian Platinum Member

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    After much consideration
    I'm on Anthony smith this weekend
    And I like his price
    Hectors last fight this one Imo
     
  10. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    I see why people would go for Smith in this spot but one of my number one rules is not to back people with dodgy chins.
     
  11. raketmannen

    raketmannen Purple Belt

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    I'm liking Jotko itd +400, can easily see Hall quit. Also Sanders itd +240
     
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  12. mmaHobbyist

    mmaHobbyist Blue Belt

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    Yes, possibility! Alves is not scare to fight but
    scare to fight & lose to a dangerous b-level fighter.

    Condit is much easier fight since he is a intern champ, you suppose to lose. Lose to a b-level fighter could end the career sooner than later.
     
  13. vkram

    vkram Brown Belt

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    Really? Jotko is not much of a finisher at all.
     
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  14. chemmy

    chemmy Blue Belt

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    That's a bit of a stretch, IMO. Alves didn't back out from fear.
     
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  15. AxeMurderer

    AxeMurderer Orange Belt

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    I am liking usman itd +200ish. His wrestling should nullify any takedown and his stand up is improving quickly. With his power I think he makes a statement and starts getting top opponents.
     
  16. DarkneT

    DarkneT Generic Russian Platinum Member

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    Mmhmm but Hectors chin is a bit dodge too?
     
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  17. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Could be going that way but id say Smith's is definitely more suspect. But Lombard might need a r1 finish. If you're going to bet the fight id personally say keep it small.
     
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  18. piglord

    piglord Brown Belt

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    daniel spitz looks quite bad, might still be better than hamilton.
     
  19. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    i double dare you to bet either guy!
     
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  20. Joseph Budden

    Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Hector has one round to finish maximum. Smith can still get caught, but considering Hectors age + usada + smith improvements without Lyme disease and training at altitude it's worth the risk to me too.

    Only 1u on his moneyline at + odds right now cause I'm waiting on smith nsc. Might as well let that cat out the bag, either way with the itd lines it should open evens at worse. Like this more than the moneyline just for the small probability Hector can judo hug for majority of the fight
     
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