# UFN 116 - Rockhold vs Branch - Pittsburgh

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Sep 4, 2017.

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1. ### Zee's MMA SubscriberGreen Belt

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Fact is, if I didn't vary my unit size, my overall ROI would be higher this year but I get what you are saying.

2. ### Antagonist88Green Belt

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Oh you mean profit and not actual ROI%, got it.

3. ### Zee's MMA SubscriberGreen Belt

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My overall profit and ROI% would be higher if I didn't vary unit size is my point. And unit sizing does affect ROI% in the longterm, obviously.

4. ### Antagonist88Green Belt

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I don't want to derail the thread for a math discussion, but the sizing does not effect the percentage. If you bet \$100 or \$450 on a +200, the ROI is still 200% in both cases. And if you lose, the ROI is -100% in both cases. If you bet 0.5u or 10u on a -125, the ROI is 80% in both scenarios. It's a percentage, so it's resistant considering the numerator (profit) and denominator (wager) change at the same rate. Increasing or decreasing the risk will not alter the percentage, as the profit will increase or decrease proportionally given the odds.

Really no point in my writing that out since it doesn't really matter and I think we're just misunderstanding each other.

5. ### Zee's MMA SubscriberGreen Belt

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Yes I know varying unit size doesn't effect the ROI% of the individual play, but as a collective....

Look at it like this, it's simple

5U Shevchenko @1.85
3U Latifi @2.20

vs

4U Shevchenko @1.85
4U Latifi @2.20

Which one has the higher combined ROI? obviously the 4U plays

I think you are right we are just misunderstanding eachother.

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Odd, Rockhold/Branch props were pulled from 5d. Wonder what prop is about to be crazy juiced.

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7. ### Sham5916910Silver Belt

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Yep Arantes by sub is prob the right hedge.

8. ### Rapidryan88Green Belt

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the plus money is going to peoples heads i thinl. Think rockhold takes this easily.

9. ### DarkneTGeneric RussianPlatinum Member

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After much consideration
I'm on Anthony smith this weekend
And I like his price
Hectors last fight this one Imo

10. ### Sham5916910Silver Belt

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I see why people would go for Smith in this spot but one of my number one rules is not to back people with dodgy chins.

11. ### raketmannenPurple Belt

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I'm liking Jotko itd +400, can easily see Hall quit. Also Sanders itd +240

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12. ### mmaHobbyistBlue Belt

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Yes, possibility! Alves is not scare to fight but
scare to fight & lose to a dangerous b-level fighter.

Condit is much easier fight since he is a intern champ, you suppose to lose. Lose to a b-level fighter could end the career sooner than later.

13. ### vkramBrown Belt

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Really? Jotko is not much of a finisher at all.

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14. ### chemmyBlue Belt

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That's a bit of a stretch, IMO. Alves didn't back out from fear.

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15. ### AxeMurdererOrange Belt

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I am liking usman itd +200ish. His wrestling should nullify any takedown and his stand up is improving quickly. With his power I think he makes a statement and starts getting top opponents.

16. ### DarkneTGeneric RussianPlatinum Member

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Mmhmm but Hectors chin is a bit dodge too?

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17. ### Sham5916910Silver Belt

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Could be going that way but id say Smith's is definitely more suspect. But Lombard might need a r1 finish. If you're going to bet the fight id personally say keep it small.

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18. ### piglordBrown Belt

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daniel spitz looks quite bad, might still be better than hamilton.

19. ### Sham5916910Silver Belt

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i double dare you to bet either guy!

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