UFN 116 - Rockhold vs Branch - Pittsburgh

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Zee's MMA Subscriber said:
My overall profit and ROI% would be higher if I didn't vary unit size is my point. And unit sizing does affect ROI% in the longterm, obviously.
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I don't want to derail the thread for a math discussion, but the sizing does not effect the percentage. If you bet $100 or $450 on a +200, the ROI is still 200% in both cases. And if you lose, the ROI is -100% in both cases. If you bet 0.5u or 10u on a -125, the ROI is 80% in both scenarios. It's a percentage, so it's resistant considering the numerator (profit) and denominator (wager) change at the same rate. Increasing or decreasing the risk will not alter the percentage, as the profit will increase or decrease proportionally given the odds.

Really no point in my writing that out since it doesn't really matter and I think we're just misunderstanding each other.
 
Antagonist88 said:
I don't want to derail the thread for a math discussion, but the sizing does not effect the percentage. If you bet $100 or $450 on a +200, the ROI is still 200% in both cases. And if you lose, the ROI is -100% in both cases. If you bet 0.5u or 10u on a -125, the ROI is 80% in both scenarios. It's a percentage, so it's resistant considering the numerator (profit) and denominator (wager) change at the same rate. Increasing or decreasing the risk will not alter the percentage, as the profit will increase or decrease proportionally given the odds.

Really no point in my writing that out since it doesn't really matter and I think we're just misunderstanding each other.
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Yes I know varying unit size doesn't effect the ROI% of the individual play, but as a collective....

Look at it like this, it's simple

5U Shevchenko @1.85
3U Latifi @2.20

vs

4U Shevchenko @1.85
4U Latifi @2.20

Which one has the higher combined ROI? obviously the 4U plays

I think you are right we are just misunderstanding eachother.
 
Odd, Rockhold/Branch props were pulled from 5d. Wonder what prop is about to be crazy juiced.
 
MMA Goodfella said:
I think Sanders smokes Arantes, but I agree that he's my biggest concern. As I mentioned earlier Ledet will definitely go in a couple parlays. I'll probably make the same one with Justin in it. I might also hedge on Felipe by submission prop. That is the only way I see Sanders losing However, I think that he likely learned a LOT in his fight with Alcantarac and from now on will be minding where he leaves his limbs. That was definitely a learning experience for sure. I went back and watched that fight yesterday and I still don't know how the referee did not stop that shit LOL
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Yep Arantes by sub is prob the right hedge.
 
Joseph Budden said:
I don't like the Luke itd line. Praying his -5.5 line is under -200 but I doubt it so prob pass on this fight or throw Rockhold in my round robin for the event.

Not sure how Branch wins this. Rockhold's boxing has always been his deficiency even before the Bisping fight, but I doubt he lets himself get caught again and hes used his kicks to beat better boxers than Branch like Weidman, Jacare, etc. Branch loves to hug but again, if Luke is outgrappling someone as good as Weidman, I doubt Branch has prolonged success in that area too.

Over the course of 25 mins, just hard to see how Branch can win. And the 25 min part must be stressed cause Branch is not a finisher, so reasonably speaking, its highly likely he needs to find a way to win 3 rounds.
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the plus money is going to peoples heads i thinl. Think rockhold takes this easily.
 
After much consideration
I'm on Anthony smith this weekend
And I like his price
Hectors last fight this one Imo
 
DarkneT said:
After much consideration
I'm on Anthony smith this weekend
And I like his price
Hectors last fight this one Imo
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I see why people would go for Smith in this spot but one of my number one rules is not to back people with dodgy chins.
 
I'm liking Jotko itd +400, can easily see Hall quit. Also Sanders itd +240
 
wack3d said:
lol are you really suggesting Alves got scared and backed out of the fight? he has been in there with the best in the world why would he be scared of a one dimentional B-level fighter :D
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Yes, possibility! Alves is not scare to fight but
scare to fight & lose to a dangerous b-level fighter.

Condit is much easier fight since he is a intern champ, you suppose to lose. Lose to a b-level fighter could end the career sooner than later.
 
mmaHobbyist said:
Yes, possibility! Alves is not scare to fight but
scare to fight & lose to a dangerous b-level fighter.

Condit is much easier fight since he is a intern champ, you suppose to lose. Lose to a b-level fighter could end the career sooner than later.
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That's a bit of a stretch, IMO. Alves didn't back out from fear.
 
I am liking usman itd +200ish. His wrestling should nullify any takedown and his stand up is improving quickly. With his power I think he makes a statement and starts getting top opponents.
 
DarkneT said:
Mmhmm but Hectors chin is a bit dodge too?
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Could be going that way but id say Smith's is definitely more suspect. But Lombard might need a r1 finish. If you're going to bet the fight id personally say keep it small.
 
daniel spitz looks quite bad, might still be better than hamilton.
 
Hector has one round to finish maximum. Smith can still get caught, but considering Hectors age + usada + smith improvements without Lyme disease and training at altitude it's worth the risk to me too.

Only 1u on his moneyline at + odds right now cause I'm waiting on smith nsc. Might as well let that cat out the bag, either way with the itd lines it should open evens at worse. Like this more than the moneyline just for the small probability Hector can judo hug for majority of the fight
 
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