UFN 116 - Rockhold vs Branch - Pittsburgh
- Thread starter EzFlyer
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Not my first time betting against Hector
Appreciate the advice though
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man, idk.. he still can't really finish dudes.. he'd have to seriously pile it on and he probably won't want to go near the ground here to get the finish.. i guess it's +200 for a reason, it's not supposed to happen.. but until i see usman finish a dude like moraes, i'm gonna assume the same. 30-27 (or 30-26) across the board etc.
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Na gonna have problems finding his counters when Jotko is fast and is either all the way in with the clinch or all the way out at kicking range. Plus if/when Jotko does clinch, no reason to think Hall doesn't get grinded on
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I hear ya, I just think this will be his coming out party. I think his Stand up has improved way more than moraes and more power. I also think he wants to make a statement. Not going big but throwing some on it.
I do. But only small on him. Much rather that than big on Jotko though with how unpredictable Hall is
Sanders itd at that price is great imo. You can say Arantes hasn't been finished in 7 years, but that was the same deal for Iuri who Luke nearly finished multiple times before the sub
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Gillespie/Gonzalez does not go the distance -188. Gonzalez have never seen a decision in his 14 fights and 2/9 of Gillespies fights have gone the distance. Im unloading on this
Also really like Sanders/Arantes does not go the distance +110
Also really like Sanders/Arantes does not go the distance +110
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Really crazy that everybody thinks Ledet is going to cruise against Zu.
Chase Sherman is a goon. While Ledet outboxed him like crazy, he couldn't even knock him down once bc noodle arms.
Mark Godbeer basically let himself get submitted by pulling Ledet down on top of him for no apparent reason.
Zu is powerful, precise, and calculating. Ledet hasn't faced anybody this good before and could easily get KO'd.
Chase Sherman is a goon. While Ledet outboxed him like crazy, he couldn't even knock him down once bc noodle arms.
Mark Godbeer basically let himself get submitted by pulling Ledet down on top of him for no apparent reason.
Zu is powerful, precise, and calculating. Ledet hasn't faced anybody this good before and could easily get KO'd.
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Here are my EV's for this week
Rockhold -400
Smith -140
Gillespie -340
Usman -400
Ledet -220
Martin -115
Hamilton -190
Jotko -200
Sanders -250
Burns -110
Perry -500
Not much to love outside of ZU. Smith, Sanders, Moraes, and Martin alright spots but nada special. I had Alves at -150, that was the one :/
Rockhold -400
Smith -140
Gillespie -340
Usman -400
Ledet -220
Martin -115
Hamilton -190
Jotko -200
Sanders -250
Burns -110
Perry -500
Not much to love outside of ZU. Smith, Sanders, Moraes, and Martin alright spots but nada special. I had Alves at -150, that was the one :/
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Eh its pretty simple, Zu is "calculating", i.e. super low volume and relying on a big punch, while Ledet is one of the fastest HW's on the roster and has strong fundemental boxing. It's a great stylistic matchup for Ledet.
It's not like Zu is some killer, he struggled twice against some out of shape 8-7 Plinio Cruz who had previously been stopped by strikes 3 times. Ledet boxes his face off worse than he did Sherman imo. Sherman has at least proved to be UFC caliber.
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Zu is obviously in trouble if it goes to decision, but he has KO power and Ledet doesn't. The fight is a fave to finish ITD, seems like a recipe for disaster to take the big fave w/ less finishing power in this scenario.
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Yeah I hit the over 1.5 too and may stab Ledet Dec. I just don't see a seasoned boxer with a substantial speed advantage getting caught by a looping overhand right. Rebello was outstriking him on DWCS for the better part of two rounds before getting caught.
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Three times actually against cruz lol. Lost, won a split and then a majority dec. Zu is a bum and sherman is better than zu. He was getting handled by a blown up mw in rebello for nearly 2 rounds and throws one strike a minute and its the same strike. He is not ufc calibre. Fact
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You think Sanders ML at -215 is worse a straight play if you can get Arantes via submission prop at +650 or better to hedge on?
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taking smith and martin saturday.
lombard is 39 years old. lost his last 3, fades HARD after a round every time (all this post USADA...), whereas smith just showed his improved cardio / toughness in both of his last two fights, getting 2nd and 3rd round tko's after enduring some damage early in both
taking tony martin, too. another guy who's learned the error of his ways, seemingly. no longer a go-for-broke rd 1 dude who gasses hard, seems to be a methodical, all-around mma fighter now. cardio seems in check. striking vastly improved.
i would go a couple units on martin here if OAM didn't show improved striking, himself, last fight against dober (he did.)
still like the O2.5 more than either side, but i'm on martin.
just wish i had the +money openers on martin and smith, dropped the ball there.
lombard is 39 years old. lost his last 3, fades HARD after a round every time (all this post USADA...), whereas smith just showed his improved cardio / toughness in both of his last two fights, getting 2nd and 3rd round tko's after enduring some damage early in both
taking tony martin, too. another guy who's learned the error of his ways, seemingly. no longer a go-for-broke rd 1 dude who gasses hard, seems to be a methodical, all-around mma fighter now. cardio seems in check. striking vastly improved.
i would go a couple units on martin here if OAM didn't show improved striking, himself, last fight against dober (he did.)
still like the O2.5 more than either side, but i'm on martin.
just wish i had the +money openers on martin and smith, dropped the ball there.
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I see what you guys are saying. Maybe you are right. But I don't buy for a second that Sherman > Zu.
Sherman blindly barrels forward and throws whatever he's got and hopes to overpower his opponent. Consequently he got a decent volume of shots in vs Ledet, but none of them were particularly dangerous.
The fact that Zu throws one punch per minute and gets so many KOs says something about his timing + precision. If I'm betting on the inferior fighter to KO a faster boxer, I would rather take the guy who takes the sniper approach over Sherman's rambo style.
But who knows, maybe I'm just a degen who wants to bet something with a weak slate of betting options.
Sherman blindly barrels forward and throws whatever he's got and hopes to overpower his opponent. Consequently he got a decent volume of shots in vs Ledet, but none of them were particularly dangerous.
The fact that Zu throws one punch per minute and gets so many KOs says something about his timing + precision. If I'm betting on the inferior fighter to KO a faster boxer, I would rather take the guy who takes the sniper approach over Sherman's rambo style.
But who knows, maybe I'm just a degen who wants to bet something with a weak slate of betting options.
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Not directed at me, but I do. Not sure how Felipe wins a dec here with Sanders output and aggression.
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Thx Stunna .. I agree and wanted other opinions. Appreciate it! BOL this weekend bro.
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