yea I saw this too last week on 5dimes.
I might have to drop some coin on Wilder.
I don't understand why the odds are so close.
@Seano ,
@PUO3 ,
@nac386 ,
@JayE , and other regulars...
what are you thoughts on this fight?
am I completely missing something here?
I think they're pretty reasonable odds at the moment. If we had the Fury coming off the Wlad performance, I think he'd be a slight favourite (I'd still see it as a very tough fight to handicap, though). We might get that Fury, but there is a fair amount of reason to suspect that we won't, so Wilder being a bit of a favourite seems pretty reasonable.
As for how I see the fight, it's really tough to breakdown for a variety of reasons. They're both weird fighters. Wilder is a bizarre package of freak power, decent speed, great stamina, and sloppiness mixed with moments of genuine skill and polish. The biggest revelation from the Ortiz fight was that he is durable and mentally strong. As odd as it is to say about a guy who loses his shit when hurts a guy, he
is actually patient and doesn't get demoralized even when he's getting outboxed. Maybe that changes against a better fighter, but Fury doesn't have the big power counter-punching deterrence that a guy like Ortiz had, and even though Fury is a genuinely good boxer and mover, he's not a defensive maestro.
At the same time, lesser boxers than Fury have given Wilder plenty of problems. If Fury is genuinely sharp (it's tough to make too much of his warm up bouts), then he'll pick up rounds on Wilder. I think he'll make mistakes, though. When Wlad finally stopped trying to outbox Fury and started going after him, he had some success. Wilder isn't going to come in and try to outbox Fury, he'll come after him, and he'll find some openings. Fury's durability and recovery (two things that aren't exactly helped by a 3 year hiatus where you balloon up 100 pounds while doing mountains of coke) will probably come into play at some point and could be the most important factor in the fight.
Weighing everything, I think it's most likely that Wilder eventually finds an opening and stops Fury after getting outboxed, but there is a ton of unpredictability in this matchup (to the point that I likely won't put money on it). The unpredictability makes this one of the more intriguing fights in the last number of years for me.