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For a lot of people, it's probably just a form of the False Consensus Effect. Plus some trolling (the betting odds would be extremely attractive if someone truly believed that he was a lock, but the people saying that aren't taking advantage--that tells you something).
Agreed. I don’t see this election going in the direction of a ‘trouncing’ for either side.
On a side note, what’s your take on Bernie possibly splitting the Dem vote if he gets the nod? You think it’s possible, or will traditional establishment type Dems suck it up and support him?