What is Brady's path to victory against Burns?

[JoeRowe]

This right here

He’s a 38 year old former LW on a two fight losing streak. Even still I’m placing a bet on Burns because the odds still seem out of whack to me too

Age is literally the only reason. Brady has 0(!) wins against current top-15 WWs. The glazing is wild to me lol

 

[theincognito]

Wrestlefuck him like Belal did

 

[AmonTobin]

If he can do what he did to Kelvin, he should be ok. I thought Kelvin was going to sleep him but he looked terrible. Brady completely neutralized him. I wouldn’t stand too long with Burns though. He’s still a lion.

 

[10000yearsold]

If he jumps balls first into some leg kicks, he could pick up an early dq win.

 

[JoeRowe]

Wrestlefuck him like Belal did

Belal landed 0 takedowns vs Burns. In fact Burns did better with 1 arm than Brady did against the current champ.

 

[JoeRowe]

If he can do what he did to Kelvin, he should be ok. I thought Kelvin was going to sleep him but he looked terrible. Brady completely neutralized him. I wouldn’t stand too long with Burns though. He’s still a lion.

Kelvin is depleted at 170 & was 2-5 heading into that fight, including getting tapped in 1 minute by mediocre Jack Hermanson. Idk why beating Kelvin means anything these days.

 

[theincognito]

Belal landed 0 takedowns vs Burns. In fact Burns did better with 1 arm than Brady did against the current champ.

0 attempts and 0:00 control time. Weird. Seems I completely misremembered that one.

 

[Dim1]

Why's everybody so big on Burns hands? He hasn't got a single KO against a name other than Damian Maia (oh yeah I forgot Damian is a stand up wizard.)

 

[LiQuiD42]

Brady has to hold Burns down and dry hump him the entire fight. It’s the only way I can see him winning.

 

[CrimsonFan]

Belal landed 0 takedowns vs Burns. In fact Burns did better with 1 arm than Brady did against the current champ.

Belal was really putting it on Burns in that first round prior to Burns breaking his arm. And it happened defending a takedown didn't it?

But then Belal knew his arm was compromised and he did what everyone disliked him for.. he fought extremely safe and didn't take any risks for 4 more rounds just circling and barely doing enough to win rounds.

I think if Burns was still dangerous with both hands Belal would have continued to pressure him like he was at the beginning.

 

[NicholasJBasile]

-Will Brady take Burns down & outgrapple him? I very much doubt it as Burns is an elite grappler, even Khamzat couldn't do anything to him on the ground.

-Is Brady going beat up Burns on the feet, the same Burns that went toe-to-toe with Khamzat & JDM in kickboxing matches? The same Brady who got tooled on the feet by Belal & Chiesa?

-Is Brady going to have a better gas-tank than Burns? Maybe but I've seen no evidence that this would be the case.

I'm kind of surprised Brady is such a big favorite solely because he beat Kelvin, who is 3-6 I'm his last 9 & hasn't won a fight at WW in over 8 years. Did Burns look washed vs JDM? I thought he looked as good as ever but I've definitely been wrong before lol.

How do you guys see Brady winning this fight?

I'm a big Brady guy and regularly defend him, but Burns is about as tough of a stylistic match up as he could ask for. He'll really need to have a master class plan to win this fight.

 

[SamuraiBro]

I just texted Frank Shamrock and he told me Brady's Key to Victory® is the double underhook.

Did you also ask him if he picked up his dog from the airport yet?

 

[NoBiasJustMMA]

Striking while closing the distance, clinch striking/grappling and takedowns ground control + GnP and possible submissions from top position. Khamzat's grappling is overrated. The only times he fought top10 guys he has had very competitive fights. Brady is probably a better sub grappler than him.

 

[NoBiasJustMMA]

Why's everybody so big on Burns hands? He hasn't got a single KO against a name other than Damian Maia (oh yeah I forgot Damian is a stand up wizard.)

Cause he has big power in his hands and rocked/dropped both Usman and Khamzat and was pretty competitive with JDM on the feet for much of the fight. You learn a lot more from watching fights than just looking at the results.

 

[Thesnake101]

What makes you think he will be able to do that? I would argue Khamzat has been a much more dominant grappler than Brady and he could barely get Burns down, let alone keep him there.

Sean was able to sit on top of Craig Jones when they grappled, granted leglocks weren't allowed. Gilbert's a great grappler, but 38 is a rough age and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw him get nullified on the mat at times in a boring fight. Think of it like Jake Shields vs Demian Maia; one guy is the far more decorated and accomplished BJJ player, but the other has a strong mix of wrestling and BJJ to bleed time off the clock while maintaining top position long enough to be awarded the round.

I'm rooting for Burns since Brady's ptv will most likely be pretty damn boring unless Gilbert is very washed up.

 

[Dim1]

Cause he has big power in his hands and rocked/dropped both Usman and Khamzat and was pretty competitive with JDM on the feet for much of the fight. You learn a lot more from watching fights than just looking at the results.

I watched both the fights - only KOs mean heavy hands. Early on in the fight everybody is fresh. Guys with heavy hands can hurt you all fight long. Because Burns buzzed Usman and came from a lighter weight all the people who don't know anything about stand up started talking how good his hands are.

 

[SamuraiBro]

Brady will need to smother Burns on the ground, which I think he can do. Just can’t leave any openings for Burns to snatch something up. Also he’s 38 and coming off a pretty bad loss. I think burns two years ago would be much tougher for Brady.

 

[NoBiasJustMMA]

I watched both the fights - only KOs mean heavy hands. Early on in the fight everybody is fresh. Guys with heavy hands can hurt you all fight long. Because Burns buzzed Usman and came from a lighter weight all the people who don't know anything about stand up started talking how good his hands are.

No, rocking people regularly means heavy hands. Accuracy matters a lot in getting KOs. Izzy for example isn't a particularly heavy puncher but has great placement to make up for it.

Also some fighters get much better striking late in their careers, Matt Serra, Matt Hughes and Tito Ortiz all got much better at striking later in their careers and because of that they were starting to hurt people on the feet way more than they did early or in the middle parts of their careers. Burns seems to be the same as he has been hurting people.with strikes a lot more frequently in the last 4 years than he did earlier in his career.

 

[Dim1]

No, rocking people regularly means heavy hands. Accuracy matters a lot in getting KOs. Izzy for example isn't a particularly heavy puncher but has great placement to make up for it.

Also some fighters get much better striking late in their careers, Matt Serra, Matt Hughes and Tito Ortiz all got much better at striking later in their careers and because of that they were starting to hurt people on the feet way more than they did early or in the middle parts of their careers. Burns seems to be the same as he has been hurting people.with strikes a lot more frequently in the last 4 years than he did earlier in his career.

No rocking an opponent in a fight means they landed a good shot (either accuracy or power can do that.) Being good at it means you regularly knock people out and win fights that way (consistency.) Those are the fighters that we typically agree are heavy handed. Chris Leben is a guy who had heavy hands and was always a threat to KO. I don't consider Gilbert Burns to be a KO threat. It is not a common path to victory for him. Gilbert Burns is a decision threat, especially now because he's undersized for 170.

I don't agree with your comments on fighters above. Matt Hughes was *always* heavy handed and has a lot of KOs and TKOs on his record from day 1 (not all from punches though.) Matt Serra is pillow fisted and has almost no KOs. He got a lucky elbow once (seems like a lot of people see one case and development delusional bias.) Tito has a few KOs.

No, rocking people regularly means heavy hands. Accuracy matters a lot in getting KOs. Izzy for example isn't a particularly heavy puncher but has great placement to make up for it.

Also some fighters get much better striking late in their careers, Matt Serra, Matt Hughes and Tito Ortiz all got much better at striking later in their careers and because of that they were starting to hurt people on the feet way more than they did early or in the middle parts of their careers. Burns seems to be the same as he has been hurting people.with strikes a lot more frequently in the last 4 years than he did earlier in his career.

 

[Khaosan]

Brady is an animal, and has the ability to outgrind anyone. His only loss is to the current champ, and he has looked basically unstoppable in every other fight.

Imagine getting stopped by Belal..