Opinion War Room Government Shutdown over/under predictions

[Crazy Source]

Yeah that’s quite a ways off from 85%. @heloder didn’t want to look it up because he already knew you were wasting peoples time with that claim.

This shutdown isn’t just “the dems” fault. It’s the result of these party line politics and hardball politics where both teams will no longer compromise on anything. Republicans are in power and haven’t made a single concession to the Democrats all year and this is the only tool the dems really have to get what they want. The Republicans have done the same thing when the shoe was in the other foot.

This is a problem that started with Newt Gengrich and has gotten worse until we got to today where neither side negotiates at all with the other. I don’t know how that’s ever going to get fixed.

No longer compromise on cutting ACA subsidies? Thank God the DEMs are drawing a line in the sand. It's the right side to be one.

 

[Andy Capp]

Two party system needs to be broken but I don’t ever see that happening in our lifetime

There's one possibility I can think of--emphasis on the word possibility--that the Trump admin's authoritarian shit eventually hits the fan so hard it results in a second American revolution which brings with it a reshaping of the entire political structure, but even if the first part happens, the second part is even more unlikely; just look at other nations that have overthrown dictators--as often as not they're replaced by a different dictator and the sitation for the people doesn't change.

 

[Beechwood]

These are Democrat supporters and voters. I wonder if the government union will have an influence on Chuck Schumer.

Largest government union calls for clean CR to end shutdown​

https://thehill.com/business/5574613-federal-workers-union-demands-end-shutdown/

....On Sept. 19, the House passed a GOP-backed CR, deemed “clean” and “nonpartisan” by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.). Only one Democrat, Maine Rep. Jared Golden, voted for the measure.

The funding proposal, though, has failed 12 times in the Senate, with only a handful of Democrats backing it. Democrats have insisted on including a permanent extension of subsidies offered under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in any bill to reopen the government. Republicans, meanwhile, said they prefer to negotiate on the ACA credits after the shutdown ends. ....

 

[avenue94]

Yes. But one of them has no insurance. They are self employed and can't afford it. He uses Urgent Care as needed.

The subsidies have to be extended.

@avenue94

I resorted to my AI agent:
Me: Tell me about the government shutdown. Will it end this week given the end of snap benefits on Nov. 1?
AI: The government shutdown is unlikely to end this week, despite the looming cutoff of SNAP benefits on November 1. The Senate has adjourned until Monday, October 27, and no deal is currently in sight.
What Could Break the Stalemate:
• Public backlash as SNAP and WIC benefits halt
• Economic pressure from furloughed workers and delayed federal services
• Fed rate cut on October 29 may shift fiscal urgency
• Presidential intervention or bipartisan compromise
Unless Monday’s vote brings a breakthrough, the shutdown will stretch into November, triggering widespread food insecurity and deepening economic strain.

This is bad news. The Devil's holiday is October 31. Will people depend on candy?

@avenue94

I did some research and the 13th vote on the CR is tomorrow at 3pm.

The SNAP funding bill in the house needs to pass out of a committee first and then all it takes is a simple majority to pass. Shouldn't be a problem.

The SNAP funding bill in the Senate is also in a committee. After it moves through that the bill would require the 60 votes to continue to another final simple majority vote..(just like the CR)

Note: if the two bills do not match, then they go to reconciliation, which would slow things down. If that is not an issue, this measure could be finalized by November 1.

The Democrats went into this wanting premiums extended and SNAP to be continued.

The GOP went into this not wanting to extend premiums yet (or ever) and months after kicking millions of people off of SNAP (many who actually needed it).

I don't know how you see these two data points and then conclude "both sides are bad and equally to blame" given you want your friends to have access to the welfare and health care they qualify for.

 

[N13]

The Democrats went into this wanting premiums extended and SNAP to be continued.

The GOP went into this not wanting to extend premiums yet (or ever) and months after kicking millions of people off of SNAP (many who actually needed it).

I don't know how you see these two data points and then conclude "both sides are bad and equally to blame" given you want your friends to have access to the welfare and health care they qualify for.

I'm going to focus on the NOW and watch how the elected officials vote this week.

 

[N13]

AI agent says:

The Senate did not vote on the continuing resolution (CR) today, October 27. They reconvened in the afternoon but did not schedule a vote on any funding bill including the emergency SNAP benefits.
The Senate may attempt another vote, possibly Tuesday or Wednesday.
If the CR fails again, the SNAP emergency bill (S.3024) could be fast-tracked as a fallback.
Federal workers missed their first full paycheck last Friday, intensifying calls for action.
Speaker Mike Johnson said he wasn’t “100% sure” if military pay would be issued this week.
Public pressure mounting: The largest federal workers’ union called for a clean CR and full back pay today.
Odds of shutdown ending this week: Still low, with Polymarket showing most bets on a resolution after November 16.

 

[Bwagster]

There's one possibility I can think of--emphasis on the word possibility--that the Trump admin's authoritarian shit eventually hits the fan so hard it results in a second American revolution which brings with it a reshaping the entire political structure, but even if the first part happens, the second part is even more unlikely; just look at other nations that have overthrown dictators--as often as not they're replaced by a different dictator and the sitation for the people doesn't change.

Who shut the government down?

 

[N13]

Due to the shit I've taken on this, I decided to get another opinion.

Me: Eliminate children because they cannot vote. What percentage of SNAP beneficiaries are democrat voters?

AI: While exact numbers are hard to pin down, surveys suggest that a majority of adult SNAP recipients lean Democratic—likely between 60% and 70%—after excluding children and non-voters.
There’s no official government breakdown of SNAP recipients by political affiliation, but we can triangulate from available data:
• 22% of Democrats reported receiving SNAP at some point
• 10% of Republicans reported the same
• Suggests Democrats are twice as likely to have used SNAP
Demographic Correlations
SNAP recipients are disproportionately:
• Black and Hispanic Americans – groups that vote Democratic at rates of 80%+
• Single mothers – a demographic that leans strongly Democratic. 68%
• Urban residents – urban areas tend to vote Democratic by wide margins. 62%
• Low-income households – lower-income voters have historically favored Democratic candidates
These overlapping factors suggest a strong Democratic tilt among adult SNAP recipients.
Excluding Children and Non-Voters
• Of the 42 million SNAP recipients, roughly 20 million are adults
• Among those, an estimated 12–14 million are likely Democratic voters
Conclusion
While exact partisan breakdowns are not published by the USDA, the intersection of race, income, geography, and historical voting patterns supports the conclusion that a significant majority of adult SNAP recipients are likely Democratic voters.
Why This Matters for SNAP
• SNAP recipients are disproportionately low-income, with most households earning below 130% of the federal poverty line.
• This strong Democratic lean reinforces the political urgency of funding food aid programs during shutdowns.
• Cuts or delays in SNAP benefits disproportionately affect a core Democratic voting bloc.

Looks like my initial guess and suggestion wasn't that far off.

 

[Andy Capp]

Who shut the government down?

Go to search, choose "This Thread" from the drop down menu, and enter my name into the By: field and you will have your answer several times over. I'm tired of repeating myself. Or even just go back one page. You're not worth any more of my time than this.

 

[avenue94]

I'm going to focus on the NOW and watch how the elected officials vote this week.

Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face, but oh well.

 

[Andy Capp]

These are Democrat supporters and voters. I wonder if the government union will have an influence on Chuck Schumer.

Largest government union calls for clean CR to end shutdown​

https://thehill.com/business/5574613-federal-workers-union-demands-end-shutdown/

....On Sept. 19, the House passed a GOP-backed CR, deemed “clean” and “nonpartisan” by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.). Only one Democrat, Maine Rep. Jared Golden, voted for the measure.

The funding proposal, though, has failed 12 times in the Senate, with only a handful of Democrats backing it. Democrats have insisted on including a permanent extension of subsidies offered under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in any bill to reopen the government. Republicans, meanwhile, said they prefer to negotiate on the ACA credits after the shutdown ends. ....

LOL @ prefer

Why don't they negotiate right fucking now? Can you guess or you as thick as this other B-word above?

 

[N13]

Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face, but oh well.

It's the Saint Stephen method. Judge them not by what they say, but by what they do.

Next week, we get to see how the people vote. I'm predicting Mamdani and red in NJ and VA.

What exactly do you want me to do for you? Got any Specific questions?

 

[oldshadow]

The demorats shutdown is getting more interesting. I hope they dont pass SNAP funds because the demorats didn't want to pass temporary pay for government works but they are still getting paid. Bernie say the legislators can't afford not to get paid.

 

[Bwagster]

Go to search, choose "This Thread" from the drop down menu, and enter my name into the By: field and you will have your answer several times over. I'm tired of repeating myself. Or even just go back one page. You're not worth any more of my time than this.

The Dems want 1.5 trillion dollars smh

 

[Andy Capp]

The Dems want 1.5 trillion dollars smh

Negotiations? How in the actual fuck do they work?

Get bent.

 

[Andy Capp]

The demorats shutdown is getting more interesting. I hope they dont pass SNAP funds because the demorats didn't want to pass temporary pay for government works but they are still getting paid. Bernie say the legislators can't afford not to get paid.

Further, it's not an immediate urge; it's plainly and simply how politics in a democracy works at a fundamental level. The minority party failing to exercise what small amount of power they have is failing not only their constituents but the entire nation, as I have already explained ITT. If the situation were reversed my position would be the same. Now, stop circling back to this trash. I'm tired of repeating myself. Instead of bringing the Dems back to the negotiating table, the GOP is playing chicken and hoping the Dems cave in. Trying to blackmail the minority opposition with a threat to the well-being of the American people is disgusting and shoud be decried by everyone.

 

[oldshadow]

I thought you were not even a US citizen.

 

[N13]

Air traffic controllers are not getting paid tomorrow.

Great, thank you Congress.

What could possibly go wrong?

 

[Bwagster]

Negotiations? How in the actual fuck do they work?

Get bent.

Typical lib response. Should’nt you be protesting the Whitehouse construction?

 

[Andy Capp]

Typical lib response. Should’nt you be protesting the Whitehouse construction?

Typical air head response.