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UFN 92 - Caceres vs Rodriguez - Utah

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Joseph Budden said:
If your memory is foggy and you're making a strong case, thats kind of absurd. But I don't think its unreasonable to have your opinion swayed by tape watching. Thats kind of the point of doing so lol. I might have joined the "Cote has value" side of the forum if it weren't for a rewatch on the Cote - Saunders fight and a reminder how much slower his hands are, bad his tdd is, and reliant on the right hand he is.
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I agree on that, but remember, I've been on here a lot of years in these threads. I've seen several posters (not necessarily current posters) who throughout the years would argue strongly for one guy, flip flop their opinion of it, and then act like a winner regardless. "Man, I knew I should have stuck with my first instinct" or "I'm glad I looked into that more". It was a recurring theme, and especially with livebetting. If you have someone consistently buying out of plays on livebetting, why the hell listen to their pre-fight picks?

It's a public forum so people can do what the hell they want, but the second I see someone try to make strong statements and then flip flop afterwards, I'm done listening to their initial opinion. Who knows if they won't do the same thing again.
 
Just in case anyone isn't already a fan of Yair...



I am firmly aboard the Yair hype train...this guy is a beast.
 
gigliotti-smith props are out of whack.

it's near a pick'em (granted, gigliotti now up to -145, but still not a big favorite)

yet the props all indicate early gigliotti finish.

NOT gigliotti ITD -135
t.smith +3.5 -105

tempting as hell.

and geez, gigliotti RD 1 only pays +190...

the way it's all set it's like 5d is taking the stance of "gigliotti early or he loses"
 
EzFlyer said:
gigliotti-smith props are out of whack.

it's near a pick'em (granted, gigliotti now up to -145, but still not a big favorite)

yet the props all indicate early gigliotti finish.

NOT gigliotti ITD -135
t.smith +3.5 -105

tempting as hell.

and geez, gigliotti RD 1 only pays +190...

the way it's all set it's like 5d is taking the stance of "gigliotti early or he loses"
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Honestly, thats kind of how I see the fight too. Pretty upset at the Gig round 1 price, but was gonna post in here how coupling that with the over is probably a safe way to play this.

But that damn Trevor Smith decision price is sooo tempting too. Have to put something on that. Dude has a tendency to get starched early, but if Gig cant do that its not hard to see him getting grinded by the vet
 
Oblivian said:
I agree on that, but remember, I've been on here a lot of years in these threads. I've seen several posters (not necessarily current posters) who throughout the years would argue strongly for one guy, flip flop their opinion of it, and then act like a winner regardless. "Man, I knew I should have stuck with my first instinct" or "I'm glad I looked into that more". It was a recurring theme, and especially with livebetting. If you have someone consistently buying out of plays on livebetting, why the hell listen to their pre-fight picks?

It's a public forum so people can do what the hell they want, but the second I see someone try to make strong statements and then flip flop afterwards, I'm done listening to their initial opinion. Who knows if they won't do the same thing again.
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Meh you're being a douche for no reason. I had an opinion based on memory a week before the fight and have changed my opinion after watching tape, not that hard to understand. I'm not suddenly going to toot my own horn for initially favouring someone without watching tape when I haven't even bet anything.
 
Oblivian said:
Sorry robbie, but I'm going to take everything you say with a big grain of salt now. You acknowledged Leites has more power and now you are saying Leites is more technical, so how in the world is Camozzi the better striker who wins 70% of the time standing? Did watching tape honestly sway your opinion that much?

I've touched on this before, but I think these threads can become pretty worthless when you have so many people make strong opinions on a fight and then completely flip flop after "watching tape". There was a good period of time in these threads where I noticed a trend of people talking strongly on a side and then flipping or live betting out of it. It doesn't change the way I make my plays, but it's one of the reasons that I lost interest in these threads and another reason why I rarely let others sway my opinion.
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I had an opinion based on memory on recent fights then watched tape and changed my opinion. I've not even bet anything or recommended a bet, so stop being a twat
 
EzFlyer said:
gigliotti-smith props are out of whack.

it's near a pick'em (granted, gigliotti now up to -145, but still not a big favorite)

yet the props all indicate early gigliotti finish.

NOT gigliotti ITD -135
t.smith +3.5 -105

tempting as hell.

and geez, gigliotti RD 1 only pays +190...

the way it's all set it's like 5d is taking the stance of "gigliotti early or he loses"
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I think if Smith gets on top he can grind him out. This jiggly guy doesn't look that good. He has more wins via grappling than standing KO's so if he needs to grapple in this fight, he'll be playing Smith's strengths and I'll favor the more experienced and bigger guy in this match up.

No one knows what jiggly is capable of but debutantes almost always have a disadvantage with jitters etc.

It's not on my list of plays or anything but I'm planning on buying some Smith EDC action.
 
Couple thoughts:

Ponz/Cummings - Feel like Cummings will have to get Ponz moving backward and put a high pace on to have success, but Ponz is probably the harder and more accurate striker and usually is the one moving forward in his fights, which will make that tough. Think the fight takes place standing up for the most part so like Ponz winning the exchanges and possibly getting a KO, even though Cummings is durable.

Gigliotti/Smith - Agree with most that Gigliotti probably starches him early or gets grinded out as the fight goes along. Gigliotti could have made big improvements though as a 22 year old training with Bader, Dolloway, Chandler etc. at Power MMA. Smith claims he used to be a bad fighter because he didn't train and take things seriously and now he is doing so. Think it is a little too late for that at 35. Favor Gigliotti ITD, but wouldn't be shocked if he faded if Smith hangs around.

Think Moroz probably wins, but I have not been good at picking WMMA, so pass for me.

McGee, although KO'd by Ponz has proven to be durable and have great cardio, think he takes a decision or late stoppage over Steele.

Like Swanson, Burmudez and Yair to all win, did a couple mix and match 2-person parlays with those three and included them in a hail mary parlay as well.

Think Ishihara probably smokes Guiterrez, but haven't seen enough of either and Ishihara seems wild. Probably a pass.
 
Stunna77 said:
Gigliotti/Smith - Agree with most that Gigliotti probably starches him early or gets grinded out as the fight goes along. Gigliotti could have made big improvements though as a 22 year old training with Bader, Dolloway, Chandler etc. at Power MMA. Smith claims he used to be a bad fighter because he didn't train and take things seriously and now he is doing so. Think it is a little too late for that at 35. Favor Gigliotti ITD, but wouldn't be shocked if he faded if Smith hangs around.
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training with those guys he should have some gode wrasslin, if smith cant take him down he is in for a long night

smiths striking is way below average by ufc standards
 
rille31 said:
training with those guys he should have some gode wrasslin, if smith cant take him down he is in for a long night

smiths striking is way below average by ufc standards
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Agreed, and Gigliotti should have a fairly sizable athleticism advantage, even if he isn't the most technical striker at this point.
 
Be sharp, overwhelm him, let him make mistakes, 15-16 pounds to cut

 
weedreference said:
I've flip-flopped many times after watching tape. Granted, that's never been after I've come on here touting some specific aspect of some guy, but quite often my perception of a fighter was wrong and watching tape corrected it.
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Recently flip flopped on krylov after watching tape of Herman after my initial thought was krylov puts himself in too many bad spots

Hell I recently rewatched Gsp Hendricks for the 5th time and watching live thought Gsp def lost

First couple rewatches def thought Gsp did win the rounds other than 2

Recently clearly thought 1-2-4 Hendricks and robbery.

So there lol
 
My leans this card that are pretty strong

Camozzi
Ishihara
Yair
Cub

Will probably add cerrone

100 wins 900

Can't believe the price on cerrone btw
 
MONEYLINE said:
My leans this card that are pretty strong

Camozzi
Ishihara
Yair
Cub

Will probably add cerrone

100 wins 900

Can't believe the price on cerrone btw
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think cerrone has value as a moderate fav? i definitely do.
 
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