UFN 92 - Caceres vs Rodriguez - Utah

[Joseph Budden]

I said I didn't watch tape and now I have. The line is priced correctly so no

How are you gonna tell me to watch tape on Thales' standup being garbage before you even watched tape? lol

but anyways, that fight should be a complete pass imo. Camozzi has shown slow improvements and the fight is at altitude which just reeks of potential for Camozzi to win the last 7 1/2 mins for a close decision.

Also, can't stress enough how much I think that HW opener is a pass. I have a feeling training out of Belcher's camp Sherman is gonna be throwing a lot of straight kicks to the body.

 

[MMAJay]

Put 2u on the O2.5 in the WMMA fight. Moroz will probably pick her apart striking, and continuously do so with the help of her footwork. From my point of view Moroz is a point fighter, and hopefully that will happen this saturday. Taylor won't be able to put out Moroz. The only way I see this going under, is if Moroz locks a sub in once Taylor is tired of getting punched in the face from the distance. Taylor should fight in the 105 division. I just hope that T-rex can survive.

 

[CR0W]

Anyone who calls Camozzi a "technical boxer" is trolling or has no idea what they're talking about.

 

[Ukram]

https://www.ufc.tv/video/chris-camozzi-vs-tom-watson-ufc-fight-night

 

[Bork Lazer]

Anyone who calls Camozzi a "technical boxer" is trolling or has no idea what they're talking about.

Agreed, 100%. Dude has a solid jab but most of his offense comes from kicks then clinching. Then in the clinch he throws a lot of knees and gets his opponent wary of them so he can open up with sharp elbows.

 

[CR0W]

Agreed, 100%. Dude has a solid jab but most of his offense comes from kicks then clinching. Then in the clinch he throws a lot of knees and gets his opponent wary of them so he can open up with sharp elbows.

100% correct. He's a Muay Thai styled fighter if anything. Loves scrapping on the inside clinch, knees, elbows and dirty boxing. Decent enough jab but far from a technical boxer.

 

[AxeMurderer]

I have read so much on the TL/Camozzi fight going back and forth and i am still confident in my pick. As everyone has pointed out TL is the more skilled fighter overall, I just feel styles make fights and the fact that I dont think TL will finish Camozzi, I do think TL will fade and most likely fairly early in the fight, I think Camozzi wins the 2nd and 3rd rounds, if he doesnt finish an exhausted TL in the 3rd. I put up $100 on Camozzi at +160 and feel good about it. By no means is Camozzi a world beater, but i think he takes this with volume, being tough and better cardio.

Now that I posted that I am sure TL will take him down and sub him in the 1st lol. I do like Moroz, Ponzi and Yair and will probably do Round Robin with those fighters.

Again I love this forum and all the insight everyone brings and sharing of their thoughts on the fights.

 

[Xuh]

Put 2u on the O2.5 in the WMMA fight. Moroz will probably pick her apart striking, and continuously do so with the help of her footwork. From my point of view Moroz is a point fighter, and hopefully that will happen this saturday. Taylor won't be able to put out Moroz. The only way I see this going under, is if Moroz locks a sub in once Taylor is tired of getting punched in the face from the distance. Taylor should fight in the 105 division. I just hope that T-rex can survive.

Moroz was pretty wildly aggressive before her last fight. 5 finishes in 1 round, 1 early in the 2nd, came out fists blazing vs Calderwood and Letorneau, until Letorneau almost knocked her head off with a counter & she immediately mentally matured 10 years and became a points fighter for her subsequent fight.
Maybe she'll continue to be more cautious now but I could see her winning by sub (actually the most likely outcome of the fight IMO) or (T)KO, as mentioned Taylor is small, short, and even received the lesser-spotted 115lbs one punch KTFO via lunging in from the outside before. & Moroz will be the best boxer Taylor has ever fought. Plus Taylor is on short notice fighting somewhat at altitude, I could see her gassing in 2 or 3 and Moroz could chew her up with punches for a stoppage if she chose to do so I think... @ 8.0 I might put small beer money on Moroz TKO... (as well as big beer money on Moroz ITD and magnum champagne money on Moroz SU)

 

[Xuh]

Again I love this forum and all the insight everyone brings and sharing of their thoughts on the fights.

do you post on Reddit?
just wondering because I browse now and then there and sometimes see some guy posting about his bets who seems to know his stuff, after checking he seemed to have some similar bets to you last weekend so thought it might be the same person

 

[AxeMurderer]

do you post on Reddit?
just wondering because I browse now and then there and sometimes see some guy posting about his bets who seems to know his stuff, after checking he seemed to have some similar bets to you last weekend so thought it might be the same person

No I don't post on Reddit, just here.

 

[robbiedawg]

How are you gonna tell me to watch tape on Thales' standup being garbage before you even watched tape? lol

but anyways, that fight should be a complete pass imo. Camozzi has shown slow improvements and the fight is at altitude which just reeks of potential for Camozzi to win the last 7 1/2 mins for a close decision.

Also, can't stress enough how much I think that HW opener is a pass. I have a feeling training out of Belcher's camp Sherman is gonna be throwing a lot of straight kicks to the body.

It's bad compared to skilled technical strikers but much more technical than Camozzi's

 

[robbiedawg]

i actually don't think the jab is going to be the factor, i think camozzi's leg kicks will take away leites' movement - hopefully sooner rather than later.

If he throws leg kicks he will get taken down

 

[AxeMurderer]

If he throws leg kicks he will get taken down

I actually hope he does not throw leg kicks until TL starts to gas. Hopefully he grinds TL against the cage, uses his knees, elbows early and tries to wear TL down. The last thing I would want is for an early kick to allow TL to take him down and give TL time to work while not draining his gas tank and giving away the round as well.

 

[Oblivian]

It's bad compared to skilled technical strikers but much more technical than Camozzi's

Sorry robbie, but I'm going to take everything you say with a big grain of salt now. You acknowledged Leites has more power and now you are saying Leites is more technical, so how in the world is Camozzi the better striker who wins 70% of the time standing? Did watching tape honestly sway your opinion that much?

I've touched on this before, but I think these threads can become pretty worthless when you have so many people make strong opinions on a fight and then completely flip flop after "watching tape". There was a good period of time in these threads where I noticed a trend of people talking strongly on a side and then flipping or live betting out of it. It doesn't change the way I make my plays, but it's one of the reasons that I lost interest in these threads and another reason why I rarely let others sway my opinion.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Sorry robbie, but I'm going to take everything you say with a big grain of salt now. You acknowledged Leites has more power and now you are saying Leites is more technical, so how in the world is Camozzi the better striker who wins 70% of the time standing? Did watching tape honestly sway your opinion that much?

I've touched on this before, but I think these threads can become pretty worthless when you have so many people make strong opinions on a fight and then completely flip flop after "watching tape". There was a good period of time in these threads where I noticed a trend of people talking strongly on a side and then flipping or live betting out of it. It doesn't change the way I make my plays, but it's one of the reasons that I lost interest in these threads and another reason why I rarely let others sway my opinion.

If your memory is foggy and you're making a strong case, thats kind of absurd. But I don't think its unreasonable to have your opinion swayed by tape watching. Thats kind of the point of doing so lol. I might have joined the "Cote has value" side of the forum if it weren't for a rewatch on the Cote - Saunders fight and a reminder how much slower his hands are, bad his tdd is, and reliant on the right hand he is.

 

[weedreference]

Anyone who calls Camozzi a "technical boxer" is trolling or has no idea what they're talking about.

Of course I mean by MMA standards, in which case he is... or at the very least more technical boxer than a brawler. Just look at how he throws his punches... good snap, limited energy expended. It's true he uses the clinch to make up for his lack of a middle range game, but you have to expect that from a slow and rangy MMA fighter.

 

[weedreference]

Sorry robbie, but I'm going to take everything you say with a big grain of salt now. You acknowledged Leites has more power and now you are saying Leites is more technical, so how in the world is Camozzi the better striker who wins 70% of the time standing? Did watching tape honestly sway your opinion that much?

I've touched on this before, but I think these threads can become pretty worthless when you have so many people make strong opinions on a fight and then completely flip flop after "watching tape". There was a good period of time in these threads where I noticed a trend of people talking strongly on a side and then flipping or live betting out of it. It doesn't change the way I make my plays, but it's one of the reasons that I lost interest in these threads and another reason why I rarely let others sway my opinion.

I've flip-flopped many times after watching tape. Granted, that's never been after I've come on here touting some specific aspect of some guy, but quite often my perception of a fighter was wrong and watching tape corrected it.

 

[Johnbmma1]

If he throws leg kicks he will get taken down

Disagree. Being a southpaw that leg kick will be there for Camozzi as an inside leg kick. You can't really catch inside leg kicks from a southpaw effectively. In fact I messaged Camozzi some things I see that could benefit him. Did the same thing with his fight vs Miranda. I'll share the messages between me and him tomorrow after weigh ins for you guys

 

[CR0W]

Of course I mean by MMA standards, in which case he is... or at the very least more technical boxer than a brawler. Just look at how he throws his punches... good snap, limited energy expended. It's true he uses the clinch to make up for his lack of a middle range game, but you have to expect that from a slow and rangy MMA fighter.

Well even for an MMA fighter I certainly wouldn't class him as a "technical boxer" by any means.

Masvidal is a fairly technical boxer for MMA for example but (for me) Camozzi doesn't full under that banner. Either way, Camozzi certainly has a chance in this fight.

 

[AffectEffect]

I've touched on this before, but I think these threads can become pretty worthless when you have so many people make strong opinions on a fight and then completely flip flop after "watching tape". There was a good period of time in these threads where I noticed a trend of people talking strongly on a side and then flipping or live betting out of it. It doesn't change the way I make my plays, but it's one of the reasons that I lost interest in these threads and another reason why I rarely let others sway my opinion.

Why do you care what someone's "strong opinion" is? Look for strong or weak arguments instead.

"Strong opinions" are almost worthless without a coherent argument. Even cappers that I have known for 10 years, if they say " I am really confident in X" I still need to hear the logic behind their opinion.

I think it is very amateur to come on here looking for touts and following their strong opinions, it basically is taking the pressure off yourself to make your own informed decision. "This guy sounds really confident, he has made some good picks lately, I am gonna tail him" is just closing your eyes and praying.