UFN 92 - Caceres vs Rodriguez - Utah

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robbiedawg said:
I like the value (+450) on Yair by sub. His BJJ is incredibly crafty and Bruce Leeroy has been subbed 5 times and nearly got subbed by Cole Miller last time out, he leaves way too many openings. Might have a small bet there.

Also like the value on Jason to win in round 1 (+550). Bermudez is a wrestler that's very overrated and has been subbed 4 times. Jason is always dangerous early and has really good subs from his back. Another potential small bet.

I really don't want to force bets on this card though, I have a feeling this wil be one people regret betting on. A lot of people seem to be on Camozzi and Cummings. After watching tape on every fighter and finishing research I don't like Camozzi anymore, I think every fight is priced correctly right now. If Ponz's odds improve a little more that will be the play.
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I don't know what you mean by Bermudez is overrated? No one is saying he is going to be champ but he is a very good fighter. Yes he has four sub losses but three of them were 5-6 years ago Bermudez is a much better fighter now then he was then. I really like Bermudez here from a stylistic point of view but do agree that if Jason wins it will be more likely than not in round one.

Certainly agree with Yair sub being a great play. I already have a small sized bet on that and may add more. The discrepancy between the sub and KO line is well off IMO.
 
Sham5916910 said:
I don't know what you mean by Bermudez is overrated? No one is saying he is going to be champ but he is a very good fighter. Yes he has four sub losses but three of them were 5-6 years ago Bermudez is a much better fighter now then he was then. I really like Bermudez here from a stylistic point of view but do agree that if Jason wins it will be more likely than not in round one.

Certainly agree with Yair sub being a great play. I already have a small sized bet on that and may add more. The discrepancy between the sub and KO line is well off IMO.
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By overrated I mean by the bookies. He's been a big favourite in every single one of his losses and he's just never impressed me. Good guy though.
 
robbiedawg said:
I really don't want to force bets on this card though, I have a feeling this wil be one people regret betting on. A lot of people seem to be on Camozzi and Cummings. After watching tape on every fighter and finishing research I don't like Camozzi anymore, I think every fight is priced correctly right now. If Ponz's odds improve a little more that will be the play.
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What puts you off of Camozzi? Not disagreeing, I'm just interested in your opinion. TL is coming off of two loses, and fighting at altitude with bad cardio to begin with... Saying that this is a big step up for Camozzi in terms of competition, his best opponent other than Jacara, which was a total miss match.

For anyone who has knows TL and Camozzi's style more than me what would you say each does well? I see Camozzi as more of a decision fighter than a finisher, he throws a fairly high volume of punches and his TDD isn't bad... Where as I see TL looking for subs, but in order to do that he is going to have to get the take down and not tire in the process. Just seen an interview where Camozzi says he is looking to take a similar path as Gegard did against TL, keep him at a distance with the jab and tire him in the clinch, after round one TL basically shut down.

I think I will wait until after weigh in's and see how they are looking, if TL looks shredded and has had a good cut his cardio may hold out.
 
ApplesVild said:
What puts you off of Camozzi? Not disagreeing, I'm just interested in your opinion. TL is coming off of two loses, and fighting at altitude with bad cardio to begin with... Saying that this is a big step up for Camozzi in terms of competition, his best opponent other than Jacara, which was a total miss match.

For anyone who has knows TL and Camozzi's style more than me what would you say each does well? I see Camozzi as more of a decision fighter than a finisher, he throws a fairly high volume of punches and his TDD isn't bad... Where as I see TL looking for subs, but in order to do that he is going to have to get the take down and not tire in the process. Just seen an interview where Camozzi says he is looking to take a similar path as Gegard did against TL, keep him at a distance with the jab and tire him in the clinch, after round one TL basically shut down.

I think I will wait until after weigh in's and see how they are looking, if TL looks shredded and has had a good cut his cardio may hold out.
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After looking at the tape, Camozzi's grappling and takedown defense sucks and not just in the Jacare fight. Really low level. If Leites gets a takedown he's in trouble. Leites is also the much more technical striker overall. If Camozzi wins it's if and only if the fight stays on the feet the whole fight and Leites chooses to strike. Then he'll probably win a close 29-28 just by being active on the feet and with his superior cardio.

People are saying Camozzi is hitting his prime and approaching the top 15 and I strongly disagree, he just isn't skilled enough. Leites losing a close decision to Bisping and getting clowned by Mousasi means nothing in this match-up either. I wouldn't play Camozzi unless he was at +200 or higher because I'm expecting Leites' gameplan to be to take the fight to the ground.

I'd prefer to play Jason at +200 over Camozzi and Cummings at their current price but again this is probably a no bet card. I see no value anywhere.
 
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I know this is a touchy subject on here but what do you think about TL as far as being with Nova Uniao and their bad run lately and post-usada?
 
ApplesVild said:
I know this is a touchy subject on here but what do you think about TL as far as being with Nova Uniao and their bad run lately and post-usada?
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Is losing to Mousasi and the MW champ what you call a bad run? Because to me it's not. Look at the level of competition he was fighting on his win streak before those losses. I still think he beats anyone at that level.
 
Two fighters I wish had better lines on this card are Moroz and Ishihara. I think they both smoke their opponents easily but I'm not into parlays.
 
robbiedawg said:
Is losing to Mousasi and the MW champ what you call a bad run? Because to me it's not. Look at the level of competition he was fighting on his win streak before those losses. I still think he beats anyone at that level.
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I didn't mean that TL was on a bad run, he's had two hard match ups in a row, I mean with fighters from Nova Uniao doing so badly lately other than Aldo getting a win lately.

You're swaying me. TL has power even if he isn't a great striker, and watching some more tape Camozzi's cardio isn't amazing, he maybe has a little more gas in the tank than TL but nothing special. If he can keep the distance for three rounds and control with his jab he has a chance I think, but over all TL probably has more weapons.

See how they look at the weighins
 
robbiedawg said:
Two fighters I wish had better lines on this card are Moroz and Ishihara. I think they both smoke their opponents easily but I'm not into parlays.
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Thought about that exact parlay, but after last weeks event where such steep favourites like brown and robbie loss and holm's recent performance, really hard to like any parlay lately.

Taylor fights so strange, she struggles with lack of height and reach but when in the pocket and close up she unleashes like a pack of "dynamite" hence that nick name she also has some good wrestling and take downs but yeah moroz should get this.

If anyone is doing some parlays in this event I think hedge either way or create a hedge parlay with 1 fav and 1 underdog or underdog + overs, worked out for me during my holm loss and ended up in the + that night.
 
Ukram said:
Thought about that exact parlay, but after last weeks event where such steep favourites like brown and robbie loss and holm's recent performance, really hard to like any parlay lately.

Taylor fights so strange, she struggles with lack of height and reach but when in the pocket and close up she unleashes like a pack of "dynamite" hence that nick name she also has some good wrestling and take downs but yeah moroz should get this.

If anyone is doing some parlays in this event I think hedge either way or create a hedge parlay with 1 fav and 1 underdog or underdog + overs, worked out for me during my holm loss and ended up in the + that night.
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Every fight is different. Everyone knew Lawler was in trouble early and Ellenberger is always dangerous with that right hand. Taylor has only fought low level women that chill against the cage and let her hit them. When she couldn't get in on the inside against another low level fighter she got hit with a straight and got KO'd stiff. Moroz is going to be best, most technical fighter she's fought by a huge margin. Moroz has good footwork and will either stay on the outside and pepper Taylor with shots for the whole fight or just use her superior grappling to control her for the whole fight or sub her. I'm not even going to bother talking about Ishihara's opponent, it's a setup fight for him. The only thing that worries me is Ishihara's cardio if he doesn't get the early finish since he's flying from Japan and the fights are at altitude.
 
ApplesVild said:
I didn't mean that TL was on a bad run, he's had two hard match ups in a row, I mean with fighters from Nova Uniao doing so badly lately other than Aldo getting a win lately.

You're swaying me. TL has power even if he isn't a great striker, and watching some more tape Camozzi's cardio isn't amazing, he maybe has a little more gas in the tank than TL but nothing special. If he can keep the distance for three rounds and control with his jab he has a chance I think, but over all TL probably has more weapons.

See how they look at the weighins
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Camozzi has never stayed on the outside and used a jab, he's honestly just a brawler for the most part. If he wants to try and fight technical like Mousasi and use a jab against a superior technical striker he has no chance.

About Nova Uniao, I don't know to be honest. Aldo looked better than ever against Edgar. It's a tough one.
 
robbiedawg said:
Every fight is different. Everyone knew Lawler was in trouble early and Ellenberger is always dangerous with that right hand. Taylor has only fought low level women that chill against the cage and let her hit them. When she couldn't get in on the inside against another low level fighter she got hit with a straight and got KO'd stiff. Moroz is going to be best, most technical fighter she's fought by a huge margin. Moroz has good footwork and will either stay on the outside and pepper Taylor with shots for the whole fight or just use her superior grappling to control her for the whole fight or sub her. I'm not even going to bother talking about Ishihara's opponent, it's a setup fight for him. The only thing that worries me is Ishihara's cardio if he doesn't get the early finish since he's flying from Japan and the fights are at altitude.
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According to the guys at bookie beatdown Ishihara has been training at TAM so no traveling from japan before the fight.
 
Ukram said:
Thought about that exact parlay, but after last weeks event where such steep favourites like brown and robbie loss and holm's recent performance, really hard to like any parlay lately.

Taylor fights so strange, she struggles with lack of height and reach but when in the pocket and close up she unleashes like a pack of "dynamite" hence that nick name she also has some good wrestling and take downs but yeah moroz should get this.

If anyone is doing some parlays in this event I think hedge either way or create a hedge parlay with 1 fav and 1 underdog or underdog + overs, worked out for me during my holm loss and ended up in the + that night.
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Hedging is for pussies ;)
 
Agent Mulder said:
According to the guys at bookie beatdown Ishihara has been training at TAM so no traveling from japan before the fight.
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Not sure when Ishi arrived but there's a pic on Justin B's twitter of him at the gym with Ishi from the other day.

I would have parlayed Ishi just have a question mark still over his cardio if an opponent can take his shots. Hopefully he learned from the Hirota fight.
 
robbiedawg said:
Every fight is different. Everyone knew Lawler was in trouble early and Ellenberger is always dangerous with that right hand. Taylor has only fought low level women that chill against the cage and let her hit them. When she couldn't get in on the inside against another low level fighter she got hit with a straight and got KO'd stiff. Moroz is going to be best, most technical fighter she's fought by a huge margin. Moroz has good footwork and will either stay on the outside and pepper Taylor with shots for the whole fight or just use her superior grappling to control her for the whole fight or sub her. I'm not even going to bother talking about Ishihara's opponent, it's a setup fight for him. The only thing that worries me is Ishihara's cardio if he doesn't get the early finish since he's flying from Japan and the fights are at altitude.
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Yeah like moroz still, picked her in my b/d just don't trust unknowns like taylor the potential is there or its not especially in the ufc, guess that is the fun we shall have at 3am on Sunday morning lol
 
Joseph Budden said:
Danny Brown. A hipster/ratchet rap artist. Check out the song I Will to get better acquainted. A fine piece of music that vulgarly covers the topic of eating pussy. A real classic.
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For so long, I thought it was Dave Chappelle from an older Chappelle Show skit.
 
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