UFN 145 on ESPN+ 3 Blachowicz vs Santos

[ill800]

Damir -120. Getting a good arb opportunity with + money on Reyes.

I don’t see this fight going the distance.

Played that line and both of their itd lines

 

[BaruchSpinoza]

Dodson is very elusive and will be a big step up in competition for yan.

I’m pretty confident in the way I played this fight. It’s risky going heavy on props but I felt like this was a solid play

Stylistically yan is just way more aggressive and throws at a much higher volume. Dodson would really have to pick him apart for 2rds to get the decision

Yan has been dominating his opposition though, he's been landing three for every shot his opponents have managed to counter. I'm not certain he will look the same against Dodson. Really excited to see how this plays out either way!

 

[Rasdun]

Honestly, I was originally looking at Dodson. I figured he may get up to +275 or higher. It wasn't long ago where he was in a very close decision against Moraes. If it goes to decision, I think it has a good chance of being close. Yan could be as solid as we think and finish Dodson, and Dodson always has power to KO someone who gets reckless.

Shocked at how many people on on Yan at these odds. To me, Dodson at anything with a +2xx in front of it is good value

 

[Stunna77]

Dodson backers not concerned with how bad he looked vs Rivera? To me its pretty clear he is slowing down and that A+ athleticism is really what made him special to begin with. If he doesn't land a big shot I am not sure how he wins a decision here and he hasn't shown the ability to hurt many 135ers.

 

[zeckdo]

All you guys talking about Yan decision need to be careful.... the only person to last the distance against Yan in his recent show of form was that Korean guy from the Korean Zombie's camp... The chin and toughness on that guy was otherworldly, and that was a career shortening beating if I've ever seen one. Those guys would rather die than lose and have zero quit in them.

TLDR - Yan is extremely dangerous, Dodson is aging and getting worse and more negative with every fight, why can't Yan catch up to him? He's got top tier foot movement and hands, with a high work rate to boot.

Was just about to comment this after reading the people on Yan, spot on mate. His ML was -250 the other day. that is my LOTN

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Shocked at how many people on on Yan at these odds. To me, Dodson at anything with a +2xx in front of it is good value

He will lose, there is no value. Donate better a dog shelter my friend than lose money on dodson

 

[Omni1]

Full disclosure I hit both of their decision lines

How much better of a line did you end up getting compared to just betting the "Goes The Distance" line? Even a slight edge is significant over time. I also do that occasionally.

 

[zeckdo]

Hadzovic dec +260, Taisumov was the only person to finish Damir, don't think Reyes is as much of a threat as Taisumov, should be a competitive decision.
Pedersoli dec +197, Pedersoli conserves his cardio well, he likes throwing consistent volume for 15 minutes to a decision, with how gun shy Grant was in his debut, I favor Pedersoli in this fight. Pedersoli should also have an advantage on ground, might just play him straight.
Robertson dec +329, Macedo has good sub defense, Lee put her in a few different subs and she got out, same in rd 1 of the AES fight. Robertson isn't good on the ground despite a few of her wins coming by submission. the fact she managed to get armbar'd by Souza like that after winning the round is a huge red flag. I expect Robertson to play it extra safe in this fight after that disaster in her last fight.
Struve/Lima FGTD +180! these two bums are definitely going to a decision. The UFC will regret putting this fight as co-main, it will be a low output boring decision. I also favor De Lima so his decision at +350 is appealing too.

 

[edole]

Macedo went to a draw with a 4-8 hungarian before getting mauled by AES and Lee. Think the flashy strikes and good looks are swaying some peoples better judgement here. Seems like she cares more about instagram likes then training while Roberson is all in. I actually think the most likely outcome here is Roberson sub.

Edit: Just watched Karine fight before that, was down 2-0 and getting wrestlefucked badly then got mounted in the 3rd before rolling for a leg and getting bum to tap to ankle lock. Low level wmma at its finest.

For some obsurd reason, most of Macedo's fights are at 135.

Robertson might be the smallest girl shes ever competed against in MMA.

 

[t6p]

Jan can grapple his ass off. Underdog against Devin Clark (Lol) and standing chokes him out. Jan has a tight squeeze. Remember when Merreta rocked Anthony Smith with that spinning shit and then 5 seconds later he's in the full mount? Remember when Spicely took him down with that trip, fished for a kimura and ended up on Merretas back, making him tap the mat? Gonna be on Jan in this spot.

Exact same read here. I think Jan’s chin holds up long enough for him to get this to ground and find a sub. Santos is so reckless, I have a hard time not seeing Jan having opportunities.

Of course there’s always the danger of Santos landing a killshot and, although it’s looked better lately, Jan’s cardio could be a concern if it goes late. But, I cap Jan as a moderate fav. I got 2.5u down at +120 and I’m considering adding another unit or so if he gets back to + money.

 

[Stunna77]

For some obsurd reason, most of Macedo's fights are at 135.

Robertson might be the smallest girl shes ever competed against in MMA.

She has definitely been at a size disadvantage but that also plays into the narrative that she isn't all that serious about her fighting career. She has pretty thick thighs, but I am expecting her to be undersized at 125 as well. They have both been fighting for about the same time period but Robertson racked up an extensive ammy career and has been putting in the work at ATT every day while Macedo travels the world and posts insta pics.

 

[edole]

She has definitely been at a size disadvantage but that also plays into the narrative that she isn't all that serious about her fighting career. She has pretty thick thighs, but I am expecting her to be undersized at 125 as well. They have both been fighting for about the same time period but Robertson racked up an extensive ammy career and has been putting in the work at ATT every day while Macedo travels the world and posts insta pics.

I definitely hear what you're saying. I might continue to hedge Macedo with FGTD.

If she gets subbed, then shame on me.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Exact same read here. I think Jan’s chin holds up long enough for him to get this to ground and find a sub. Santos is so reckless, I have a hard time not seeing Jan having opportunities.

Of course there’s always the danger of Santos landing a killshot and, although it’s looked better lately, Jan’s cardio could be a concern if it goes late. But, I cap Jan as a moderate fav. I got 2.5u down at +120 and I’m considering adding another unit or so if he gets back to + money.

I'm 2u at +110 and I think I spritz on Jan Sub when its released but I'm gonna temper myself in this spot. Merretas athleticism, power, cardio are all big concerns for me.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Robertson's takedowns are technically ugly and all kinds of flawed, but they manage to get the opponent down. And to her credit, she showed significant improvement in this regard versus Bueno Silva, with only one bad mistake in her double-leg shot.

And I don't think she will be easy for Macedo to hit at all, as starting with the McCann fight, she showed some nice circling on the outside. Note that McCann, whose stand-up is superior to Macedo's, didn't get a single clean punch through in the first 3 minutes of their fight.

One other thing to note is that for all of Macedo's flaws, she has consistently shown good sub defense. Andrea Lee is even bigger and stronger than Robertson, and has a dangerous top game, yet she couldn't sub Macedo despite beating her up in the clinch and ragdolling her on the ground.

THAT being said, there are a lot of annoying variables in this fight. Both fighters are young and have shown improvement in their recent fights. Robertson has a tendency to get over-aggressive, being wide-open to strikes and even submissions in the process. We know that Macedo sucks in the clinch, but will she suck as badly defending shots? These are different skills, after all.

Thus, I didn't go as heavy on this fight as I would have otherwise.

2.7u on Robertson at -135, and 1u on Robertson by decision at an insane +365.

 

[zeckdo]

Wow Santos vs Anders was a lot different than I remember. Santos hardly dominated. Anders was undersize and was still able to land TD's every round, Santos TDD sucks, he relies on power to stuff shots and get back up. Anders was gassed at the end of round 2, and managed to take Santos back in rd 3. Santos can't be so sloppy on the ground vs Blach, Blach will capitalize and sub him.

 

[Rasdun]

He will lose, there is no value. Donate better a dog shelter my friend than lose money on dodson

You may be right, although I think Dodson still has the speed advantage, and will connect at a higher pct when he throws. I think it will be a close fight, and at +230 I am willing to put a unit on it to find out. We shall see my friend.

 

[ill800]

How much better of a line did you end up getting compared to just betting the "Goes The Distance" line? Even a slight edge is significant over time. I also do that occasionally.

+350
+365

Fgtd at the time was -130

So roughly + 290

 

[Stunna77]

Robertson's takedowns are technically ugly and all kinds of flawed, but they manage to get the opponent down. And to her credit, she showed significant improvement in this regard versus Bueno Silva, with only one bad mistake in her double-leg shot.

And I don't think she will be easy for Macedo to hit at all, as starting with the McCann fight, she showed some nice circling on the outside. Note that McCann, whose stand-up is superior to Macedo's, didn't get a single clean punch through in the first 3 minutes of their fight.

One other thing to note is that for all of Macedo's flaws, she has consistently shown good sub defense. Andrea Lee is even bigger and stronger than Robertson, and has a dangerous top game, yet she couldn't sub Macedo despite beating her up in the clinch and ragdolling her on the ground.

THAT being said, there are a lot of annoying variables in this fight. Both fighters are young and have shown improvement in their recent fights. Robertson has a tendency to get over-aggressive, being wide-open to strikes and even submissions in the process. We know that Macedo sucks in the clinch, but will she suck as badly defending shots? These are different skills, after all.

Thus, I didn't go as heavy on this fight as I would have otherwise.

2.7u on Robertson at -135, and 1u on Robertson by decision at an insane +365.

While showing decent sub defense and not getting subbed, she gave her back up A LOT to both AES (who has shit bjj) and Lee. She was also mounted by bums on the regional scene. Robertson seems to more of a sub threat than Lee, despite being the smaller/weaker gal. She also landed some decent GnP on Molly, wouldn't be shocked in Macedo got stuck in some bad spots and finished.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

While showing decent sub defense and not getting subbed, she gave her back up A LOT to both AES (who has shit bjj) and Lee. She was also mounted by bums on the regional scene. Robertson seems to more of a sub threat than Lee, despite being the smaller/weaker gal. She also landed some decent GnP on Molly, wouldn't be shocked in Macedo got stuck in some bad spots and finished.

I mostly agree (Robertson's GnP is awful, piddly crap that isn't stopping anyone unless she has massively improved since her last fight), which is why I put way more money on the Robertson ML.

However, +365 for Robertson decision is still nutty. I would guess Macevedo survives to decision but loses at least a third of the time in that spot, which would be +200.

 

[Oblivian]

I'm on Robertson. She was underestimated her first two outings. The last loss was disappointing, but I loved the way she reacted to it. She seemed absolutely devastated. She seems like someone who really gives a shit and wants to become something in the sport. She seems to improve pretty rapidly too which makes sense at her age. My guess is Macedo gets taken down, wore out, and then subbed at some point.