UFN 145 on ESPN+ 3 Blachowicz vs Santos

I'm on Robertson. She was underestimated her first two outings. The last loss was disappointing, but I loved the way she reacted to it. She seemed absolutely devastated. She seems like someone who really gives a shit and wants to become something in the sport. She seems to improve pretty rapidly too which makes sense at her age. My guess is Macedo gets taken down, wore out, and then subbed at some point.

Good point. One thing I absolutely hate is female fighters who are smiling and joking after getting their ass kicked in a fight. (Jessica Rose-Clark after losing to Jessica Eye comes to mind)

On top of that, Robertson strikes me as a huge overachiever and what Ben Askren would call a "gamer". She has no business getting opponents to the ground with her (until very recently) poor wrestling or subbing them given the holes in her jits, and yet, that's exactly what she does, time and again.
 
I mostly agree (Robertson's GnP is awful, piddly crap that isn't stopping anyone unless she has massively improved since her last fight), which is why I put way more money on the Robertson ML.

However, +365 for Robertson decision is still nutty. I would guess Macevedo survives to decision but loses at least a third of the time in that spot, which would be +200.

Doesn't seem to take much to get a stoppage in wmma. IMO if she takes her back and flattens her out, she could garner a TKO stoppage even with her strikes not causing a ton of damage.
 
+350
+365

Fgtd at the time was -130

So roughly + 290
Wouldn't that end up being the equivalent of either +250 or +265 or an average price of +257.50, not +290? Like if you put $100 on each decision prop you'd make a net of either $250 or $265 depending on who won?
 
Okay, I need to ask the members here a question. Do Czech MMA judges have a habit of favoring hometown fighters?

Because I'm looking to bet on Carmouche, but after a solid 7.5 unit swing thanks to the corrupt Brazilian judges working Griffin-Alves a few weeks ago, hometown robberies are now something I try to take into account.
 
Okay, I need to ask the members here a question. Do Czech MMA judges have a habit of favoring hometown fighters?

Because I'm looking to bet on Carmouche, but after a solid 7.5 unit swing thanks to the corrupt Brazilian judges working Griffin-Alves a few weeks ago, hometown robberies are now something I try to take into account.
Trying to Czech yourself before you wreck yourself?
<{Heymansnicker}>






I'll see myself out.


Edit* as far as I know this is a debut for the UFC in the Czech republic.
 
Okay, I need to ask the members here a question. Do Czech MMA judges have a habit of favoring hometown fighters?

Because I'm looking to bet on Carmouche, but after a solid 7.5 unit swing thanks to the corrupt Brazilian judges working Griffin-Alves a few weeks ago, hometown robberies are now something I try to take into account.
There may not even be Czech judges for that fight. UFC typically fly in American judges when they go overseas anyway. I also expect plenty of Euro judges from all over to be working this card. Derek Cleary seems like he goes everywhere.

I think the crowd will influence the judges though, everytime Pudilova lands or even throws a punch I expect the crowd to make noise. She's deep on the main card too expect the arena to be packed.

But yeah, never underestimate the hometown bias. Carmouche has a lot of close fights, she don't wanna make this one close.
 
Wouldn't that end up being the equivalent of either +250 or +265 or an average price of +257.50, not +290? Like if you put $100 on each decision prop you'd make a net of either $250 or $265 depending on who won?
I compared it to the fgtd prop and added the 30 of juice I’d lose to the average I got from both props
 
Wouldn't that end up being the equivalent of either +250 or +265 or an average price of +257.50, not +290? Like if you put $100 on each decision prop you'd make a net of either $250 or $265 depending on who won?
Actually you would make a net of $150 or $165 depending on who won, you have to subtract the loss from the other prop if you're going to compare with fgtd.
 
I compared it to the fgtd prop and added the 30 of juice I’d lose to the average I got from both props
No doubt, betting the two decision props at those prices is way better than FGTD at -130, although I don't understand your comment about adding juice back.
 
Actually you would make a net of $150 or $165 depending on who won, you have to subtract the loss from the other prop if you're going to compare with fgtd.
I did subtract the loss, +350 became a net of $250 and +365 became a net of $265.
 
No doubt, betting the two decision props at those prices is way better than FGTD at -130, although I don't understand your comment about adding juice back.

Yea the price of the fgtd prop would be +260

I was trying to give even more value by adding in the 30 points from the -130 fgtd price lol. Quick mafs
 
Wouldn't that end up being the equivalent of either +250 or +265 or an average price of +257.50, not +290? Like if you put $100 on each decision prop you'd make a net of either $250 or $265 depending on who won?
And 200 on fgtd at -130 pays 153.8, so he's getting about $100 equity or 50% there doing it that way. Not bad barring a disasterous draw, chance with a Dodson fight higher than avg but still not that high
 
GTD on Pedersoli-Grant @ 1.77 looks like cash to me. Pedersoli will be on his bike, Grant will tepidly do nothing.
 
Had to hit Carlos Diego Ferreira for 2u at +135 vs Rustam Khabilov. Think the Brazilian is very live in this one, could win by KO, sub or decision.
 
I'm on Robertson. She was underestimated her first two outings. The last loss was disappointing, but I loved the way she reacted to it. She seemed absolutely devastated. She seems like someone who really gives a shit and wants to become something in the sport. She seems to improve pretty rapidly too which makes sense at her age. My guess is Macedo gets taken down, wore out, and then subbed at some point.

That's a plus, but on the downside she is mentally weak inside of the cage and doesn't react well when everything doesn't go her way. Another plus she is very technical on the ground.

If Macedo hits her with something strong on the feet, though, I could definitely see her crumbling. Or if she gets reversed on the ground, same thing. I could also see her getting subbed from closed guard again. It's never a good sign when a WMMA fighter taps to an armbar that quickly.

I'm on Macedo at +125 for 1u for degen purposes... definitely would not lay the juice on Robertson.
 
That's a plus, but on the downside she is mentally weak inside of the cage and doesn't react well when everything doesn't go her way. Another plus she is very technical on the ground.

If Macedo hits her with something strong on the feet, though, I could definitely see her crumbling. Or if she gets reversed on the ground, same thing. I could also see her getting subbed from closed guard again. It's never a good sign when a WMMA fighter taps to an armbar that quickly.

I'm on Macedo at +125 for 1u for degen purposes... definitely would not lay the juice on Robertson.
I'm on Macedo at +125 too, a little salty cause I could have done better with the line movement.

Macedo being underrated a lot, being judged off a short notice debut fight up a weight class against a big AES. In her sophomore appearance, Macedo looked improved but it's hard to look good against Andrea Lee who I think is among the very best in the division at the moment. Macedo was looking effective at distance vs Lee but was too willing to clinch and grapple, she could have showed better tactics and strategy.

Meanwhile Robertson is getting soft competition, couple blue belts like Whitbum (who I just cashed as a +160 dog) and Molly the can. Lets not forget Robertson also got easily smashed by old Barb on TUF. And in Robertson's last fight, she was getting tagged up by the Brazilian on the feet, struggled to keep top position and ended up getting subbed.

This fight is a massive step down for Macedo, Robertson is no where near Lee's level. I think Robertson needs to grind out Macedo and use her wrestling to win. I don't think she can sub or hurt Macedo standing. On the other hand I can see Macedo winning several ways. Macedo wins a kickboxing match all day here and I expect a lot of scrambles on the mat, Robertson doesn't have the best top control, could get subbed too.

I should also add, a lot of people seem to be overlooking the difference in athleticism between Macedo and Robertson. Macedo is one of the more physically gifted athletes in this division, Robertson is just mediocre.
There will be a significant speed advantage for Macedo and I expect it to be a big factor.

And for Macedo I'd like to see better strategy, tactics and fight IQ. She's a young fighter and this will come with experience. Already seen improvements between for 1st and 2nd UFC fight, expect more improvements. Macedo trained at MMA Factory with Ngannou's coach for this camp.

Robertson is young and improving too but she won't have her head coach Din Thomas in her corner for this fight because he's in camp with Woodley. He wasn't there last time either and she lost.
 
I'm still not sure if I am overly biased towards Macedo because I was really impressed with her in her fight with AES just because she was so much smaller and I though showed good striking.

I even thought in my head that maybe a Macedo TKO could be something... But took a closer look at Macedos record and she has only had 1 TKO victory in her professional career against a 2-6 fighter.
She has had two more TKO victories in her amateur career against a 1-1 who hasn't fought since 2014 and against a 2-4 fighter who went 1-4 in her amateur career.

So that isn't very attractive... although I still feel she can catch anyone with a headkick or a decent enough bodykick to crumble someone.. But I think i'm biased towards her like I said...

I'm feeling this could go to a close decision where Robertson is the one after back-and-forth scrambles makes sure she ends up on top. Macedo is more interested in high-risk high-reward stuff where Robertson is the opposite.
 
One and only sure thing about the ME is that it wont go to the scorecards :D
 
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