UFN 143 on ESPN+ 1 Cejudo vs Dillashaw

[Oblivian]

You god damn whippersnappers.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Will they air the prelims, the fightpass stream is usually atleast one min behind so would be nice if the delay got minimized especially for lb, I remember that bt sports where atleast 30 Seconds ahead of fightpass

I assume prelims and main cards will be broadcast on ESPN+ events though i'm not sure what the prelims will be broadcast on when main cards are on regular ESPN.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

My boy Killashaw isnt looking too good lol. Slurring a bit, looks gaunt and his computer says he weighs 150!

 

[Jordan3399]

My boy Killashaw isnt looking too good lol. Slurring a bit, looks gaunt and his computer says he weighs 150!

Kinda surprised by that and I assume that's not an accurate representation of his actual size given he weighed 149.5 according to CSAC vs Cody and he was meant to be walking around at around 140 back in November in preparation for a flyweight fight.

Damn, looked at more pics of him and he looks lean as hell, wonder if he's deliberately misleading people.

 

[starfish01]

Interesting video, idk how much I'm gonna lean on it though. 150 could just be his "normal" weight he inputed into that program when he first made his account, who knows if he even uses the product, hes just endorsing it on Insta. I doubt he drinks Welchs grape juice to aid performance.

I am betting on TJ having a relatively smooth weightcut because: 1) he always seems extremely serious about conditioning and weight management. 2) He is extremely lean which means the watercut is alot easier. 3) He really isnt a big BW and there are some flyweights that are the same size as him.

Even if the cut is kind of rough I like Dillashaw as a somewhat sizable favorite.

Honestly i would doubt that Cejudo is more than 5lbs smaller than dillashaw. Cejudo is a big flyweight, hes thick and has a gigantic fucking noggin.

 

[NonPhixion]

Interesting video, idk how much I'm gonna lean on it though. 150 could just be his "normal" weight he inputed into that program when he first made his account, who knows if he even uses the product, hes just endorsing it on Insta. I doubt he drinks Welchs grape juice to aid performance.

I am betting on TJ having a relatively smooth weightcut because: 1) he always seems extremely serious about conditioning and weight management. 2) He is extremely lean which means the watercut is alot easier. 3) He really isnt a big BW and there are some flyweights that are the same size as him.

Even if the cut is kind of rough I like Dillashaw as a somewhat sizable favorite.

Honestly i would doubt that Cejudo is more than 5lbs smaller than dillashaw. Cejudo is a big flyweight, hes thick and has a gigantic fucking noggin.

I reckon he has some type of juice to aid performance.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

I reckon he has some type of juice to aid performance.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Few thoughts on Sandhagens chances vs Lineker. In summary I think he's a worse Dillashaw trying to compensate with toughness.

He has solid striking which is no surprise with his kickboxing credentials and training under Ludwig but he's way too hittable which is a bad move vs a guy like Lineker. He's good going forward but Arnett was landing well when he backed him up he just didn't do it anywhere near enough. Lineker is going to have no problem dishing out that kind of pressure and the way Cory keeps his hands down he's going to get tagged especially as he frequently backs himself straight into the fence essentially doing Linekers job for him. TJ did well vs Lineker cause he has great striking forward and backwards, could strike comfortably on the outside and he could shoot perfect takedowns whenever he wanted. He was almost never in danger.

Sandhagen doesn't have any form of wrestling base and aside from a single leg he hit on Austin Arnett hasn't attempted any other TD's in the octagon. On the other hand he's been takendown in both his fights and Lineker does, when necessary, have the option to go to takedowns which he's shown before. I wouldn't be surprised if Linekers goes to these at some point as even Arnett did this with little effort just muscling Cory to the ground and taking his back briefly. Lineker does also have solid TDD with only Dillashaw effectively being able to get him down when others such as Font, Dodson and McCall all failed despite repeated attempts.

Overall, to win I expect Sandhagen needs to outpoint Lineker striking on the feet to win but given many of his tendencies playing right into Linekers standard gameplan, the unlikeliness of him getting a finish and the risk of him just getting outgrappled I favour Lineker. Won't make a play yet as I feel the lines about right on Lineker but if it improves significantly I'll look to.

Also I'm really interested in seeing footage of Emmers vs Sandhagen if anyone knows where to get it. Couldn't find anything online. If anyone could offer a summary of how it went down I'd be interested too.

Digging this up from a few days ago. Quoted yours but I know more than a few agree with you outright. Thought I'd share my opinion fwiw.

What do you think about the huge height disparity? Quick scan, but I couldn't find anything even close to Sandhagen's 5'11" in Lineker's ~40 (lol) fights, not recently anyways. Linekers punches are fast, and obviously hard, but I could see him whiffing on a ton of them here. And Cory fights long too - arms out with fingers straight a la Jon Jones.

The Iuri "knockdown" (I don't think it really was one that deserves much focus as a weak chin, more Cory riding out the momentum/flurry backwards, if that makes sense) and surviving the armbar attempt screams composure, toughness, and no-quit to me. Love those attributes in guys I bet on. Sandhagen was taken down by Iuri and Arnett but he scrambled quick and used both to his own advantage. His bouncing movement & mix-ups throwing will work well against a relatively slow, plodding Lineker (albeit with fast, hard hands). I like how Sandhagen uses the elbow a lot too. Lineker seems to have a great chin but in Rd 1 Kelleher landed a couple big shots early that seemed to both stun John, and wake him up too.

Overall, Kelleher is a poor comparison but the one aspect I can take from that is his jab, when he threw, was working to keep Lineker away. Round 3 Kelleher (hopefully not including being slept haha) is how I expect Sandhagen to look against John, except quicker, longer and with way more movement. I don't expect Sandhagen to just stand there and let John go 1-2-3 head-head-body like Brian did. Or smash his legs at will. He moves around too much. I would expect his plan to be jab-jab and dart away quick, with Lineker's shortness making up for the rest.

Now to what really matters: the money. Honestly, although a KO threat from 0 to 15 min, I see this as almost a tough ask for Lineker and a pretty good match-up overall. Cory ML and to win a decision are there for us and at these odds I'm on them. To steal your words, if I get a 'worse Dillashaw' in Cory, at these odds, I'm thrilled.

 

[ill800]

Lineker relies way too much on his chin for me to want to bet him

Sandhagen has some pop, is very accurate and has good counters. I can see him avoiding lineker for most of the fight while outpounting him and even hurting him.

Corey has never been finished. Very tough and gritty showing vs iuri

Linker really hasn’t been that impressive since getting exposed by tj. Kelleher caught him a few times, Vera was putting it on him a bit in the 3rd. I even had Dodson beating him before the tj fight

After tape I’ve remained on a 1 unit play on
Sandhagen ml at +185. Will probably add his dec prop at over +300

 

[turbozed]

Interesting video, idk how much I'm gonna lean on it though. 150 could just be his "normal" weight he inputed into that program when he first made his account, who knows if he even uses the product, hes just endorsing it on Insta. I doubt he drinks Welchs grape juice to aid performance.

I am betting on TJ having a relatively smooth weightcut because: 1) he always seems extremely serious about conditioning and weight management. 2) He is extremely lean which means the watercut is alot easier. 3) He really isnt a big BW and there are some flyweights that are the same size as him.

Even if the cut is kind of rough I like Dillashaw as a somewhat sizable favorite.

Honestly i would doubt that Cejudo is more than 5lbs smaller than dillashaw. Cejudo is a big flyweight, hes thick and has a gigantic fucking noggin.

Instead of conjecture, you can just check the CSAC info for what their weights were rehydrated.

At UFC 227, the following guys weighed in at the following weights on fight day:

FLW
Mouse - 142 lbs
Cejudo - 141 lbs
Alex Perez - 146.5
Shorty Torres - 143.5

BW
Cody - 141 lbs
TJ - 149.5 lbs
Vera - 150 lbs
Waluigi - 149.5
Ramos - 153.5
Kang - 154
Simon - 153
Jackson - 153

By these weights, Cejudo isn't a big FLW and TJ is a medium sized BW. It's really Cody that should be fighting at FLW.

 

[longway]

If he strike with Geoff for any extended period he is getting KTFO. It's imperative to wrestle here.

I initially watched tape on this fight as i wanted to play Belal as a dog, after watching tape i think Belal is unplayable, as Neal's striking is just too sharp for Belal, and on top of that he is a southpaw who can switch stances, and if Belal has not fixed his vulnerability to left hooks and left high kicks, am even thinking there is some value in Neal here. Belal is formidable as an opponent, not bc he is particularly outstanding at any one aspect of MMA, but bc he can integrate all aspects of the sport seamlessly.

So to play Neal, his TDD has to be good. From what I have seen, his wrestling and TDD is good, but still holding off pulling the trigger on this play. I saw his fight against Holland, and he had a real nice reactive sprawl, but thats the only full fight I have found. Anyone know where to find more footage on him?

 

[Sadistics]

I initially watched tape on this fight as i wanted to play Belal as a dog, after watching tape i think Belal is unplayable, as Neal's striking is just too sharp for Belal, and on top of that he is a southpaw who can switch stances, and if Belal has not fixed his vulnerability to left hooks and left high kicks, am even thinking there is some value in Neal here. Belal is formidable as an opponent, not bc he is particularly outstanding at any one aspect of MMA, but bc he can integrate all aspects of the sport seamlessly.

So to play Neal, his TDD has to be good. From what I have seen, his wrestling and TDD is good, but still holding off pulling the trigger on this play. I saw his fight against Holland, and he had a real nice reactive sprawl, but thats the only full fight I have found. Anyone know where to find more footage on him?

You can see more footage of his defensive grappling vs Waldon on DWCS, who he fought on a weeks notice up a weight class

 

[longway]

Digging this up from a few days ago. Quoted yours but I know more than a few agree with you outright. Thought I'd share my opinion fwiw.

What do you think about the huge height disparity? Quick scan, but I couldn't find anything even close to Sandhagen's 5'11" in Lineker's ~40 (lol) fights, not recently anyways. Linekers punches are fast, and obviously hard, but I could see him whiffing on a ton of them here. And Cory fights long too - arms out with fingers straight a la Jon Jones.

The Iuri "knockdown" (I don't think it really was one that deserves much focus as a weak chin, more Cory riding out the momentum/flurry backwards, if that makes sense) and surviving the armbar attempt screams composure, toughness, and no-quit to me. Love those attributes in guys I bet on. Sandhagen was taken down by Iuri and Arnett but he scrambled quick and used both to his own advantage. His bouncing movement & mix-ups throwing will work well against a relatively slow, plodding Lineker (albeit with fast, hard hands). I like how Sandhagen uses the elbow a lot too. Lineker seems to have a great chin but in Rd 1 Kelleher landed a couple big shots early that seemed to both stun John, and wake him up too.

Overall, Kelleher is a poor comparison but the one aspect I can take from that is his jab, when he threw, was working to keep Lineker away. Round 3 Kelleher (hopefully not including being slept haha) is how I expect Sandhagen to look against John, except quicker, longer and with way more movement. I don't expect Sandhagen to just stand there and let John go 1-2-3 head-head-body like Brian did. Or smash his legs at will. He moves around too much. I would expect his plan to be jab-jab and dart away quick, with Lineker's shortness making up for the rest.

Now to what really matters: the money. Honestly, although a KO threat from 0 to 15 min, I see this as almost a tough ask for Lineker and a pretty good match-up overall. Cory ML and to win a decision are there for us and at these odds I'm on them. To steal your words, if I get a 'worse Dillashaw' in Cory, at these odds, I'm thrilled.

You make some fair points, but I have watched all his fights from Rivera onward, and he has not lost any fights that remained standing. Sandhagen's POV, without be able to ground Lineker for extended periods, is fraught with danger. IMO he is going to get KTFO, its too early in his career to take on a fighter who has the physical attributes that Linker possesses.

 

[longway]

You can see more footage of his defensive grappling vs Waldon on DWCS, who he fought on a weeks notice up a weight class

I saw that, but I meant outside the UFC. I saw his fight with Holland who is a big for a MW too, he did lose, but his wrestling and clinch work looked looked real nice. But to play him at these odds I would ideally like to see a bit more.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Everyone seems to be on board with Neal? should i take a shot for a KO for him? or is he a pass.

 

[Jordan3399]

Everyone seems to be on board with Neal? should i take a shot for a KO for him? or is he a pass.

There was a general lean towards Belal early but after more research I think his skillsets being recognised more although not to the extent he's a great play or anything. More that it's a tough fight for Belal and the line might be more accurate than it seemed. I've got a little on Neal at -150 now but Belal Dec could arguably offer better value. I don't think either guy is someone worth betting big on.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Killashaw looks a bit better here. Like i said somewhere these weight cuts need to be cut they are brutal

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Everyone seems to be on board with Neal? should i take a shot for a KO for him? or is he a pass.

Neal ITD prop is a must bet - the guy is a KO artist and Belal doesn't have good record vs heavy hitters. As far as a straight bet it's little more tricky. You should watch tape yourself (if you didn't do it already) and make your own decision. Belal is there to win, he doesn't screw around. He has that ability to lull everybody into a false sence of security by fighting in something like a sparring mode (where he has the upper hand every time). He doesn't hurt people, but puts so much volume out there, and on top of that secures takedowns and/or pin you against the fence (that way he is in total control of the pace and direction of the fight). My argument is that this shit only flyes v some scrubs like Randy Brown or that new guy Rencountre. I respect that style. It's almost bulletproof. You own every area of the fight - what's not to like? But the lack of danger in his game, number 1, and the fact that he doesn't have very good defensive responses if he is on the back foot number 2, are my biggest arguments against him.

 

[Vir_Ars]

Neal ITD prop is a must bet - the guy is a KO artist and Belal doesn't have good record vs heavy hitters. As far as a straight bet it's little more tricky. You should watch tape yourself (if you didn't do it already) and make your own decision. Belal is there to win, he doesn't screw around. He has that ability to lull everybody into a false sence of security by fighting in something like a sparring mode (where he has the upper hand every time). He doesn't hurt people, but puts so much volume out there, and on top of that secures takedowns and/or pin you against the fence (that way he is in total control of the pace and direction of the fight). My argument is that this shit only flyes v some scrubs like Randy Brown or that new guy Rencountre. I respect that style. It's almost bulletproof. You own every area of the fight - what's not to like? But the lack of danger in his game, number 1, and the fact that he doesn't have very good defensive responses if he is on the back foot number 2, are my biggest arguments against him.

I do like too the way of Belal to fight, it's really efficient to win, but there will be 15 min of danger and Belal dont have the power to put that guy away and Neal really looks like a KO artist and is really fast and atletic, perfect to close the dinstance and hit hard, my only concern is wrestling and cardio, if Belal go heavy for it, this will be difficult for Neal to keep up their cardio.

 

[longway]

Neal ITD prop is a must bet

Its only +150. I think its worth waiting to see where the KO prop will be set. The only knock I have of Neal is that he doesn't use feints, he seems to have the speed to exploit openings, rather than create them with feints. Belal uses feints a lot, and is really quite clever imo, I just wonder if he will manage to freeze Neal out of his game. Quite often he level changes and you never know if he will shoot, feint and do nothing, or throw the overhand.

And I also realised that Belal has faced alot of switch stance and southpaws in his UFC fights, so he will be used to that by now.