UFN 143 on ESPN+ 1 Cejudo vs Dillashaw

[Card]

This is huge for my career, I'm going to murk Cerrone, Cerrone is just another guy, I grew up wrestling, I'm a man of structure

 

[Gugabe]

I feel like Cerrone after 2-3 mins or even R1'll be a great livebetting spot. If Hernandez can't get him out of there, I feel like he slows a little and then gets brutally finished due to having a bunch of associated defensive lapses. The more I see of OAM, the less I'm impressed lately. Aside from his insistence on holding on against Burns to fuck me on that under.

Decent chance of a Hernandez blitz-out, but I feel like if Cerrone ever gets him moving backwards or gets enough space to get comfortable then there's gonna be a one-sided ass whooping.

 

[null]

Aside from betting PVZ to win 2u, I put 2u on Cowboy. I'm expecting to hedge with Herndez in round 1, often Cowboy's weakness, and Hernandez KO/TKO. And looking to live bet Cerrone after round 1 as well.

 

[raketmannen]

his cardio is sound with finishing power in the 5th round, never mind a 3 rounder; and he wont fall over and give up like Alcantara if his finishing attempt fails the first time.

Lineker did gas in the third against Vera, even said so himself, and was on the backfoot for most of that round, still throwing heat though

 

[Dianabol]

It's tempting to bet Bermudez.

Bermudez is the smallest favorite he's been in 15 fights and it's against Te Edwards

All the value is on Bermudez, I think Edwards has a punchers chance. Edwards is younger, bigger and he hits harder, thats it.

Bermudez has only ever been KO'd by Zombie and Stephens.

 

[Gugabe]

It's tempting to bet Bermudez.

Bermudez is the smallest favorite he's been in 15 fights and it's against Te Edwards

All the value is on Bermudez, I think Edwards has a punchers chance. Edwards is younger, bigger and he hits harder, thats it.

Bermudez has only ever been KO'd by Zombie and Stephens.

Yeah. In agreement here. On Bermudez already, gonna be looking to 'hedge' with the u2.5. Bermudez has only put together one particularly terrible performance against Glenn, everything else was pretty solid.

 

[Dianabol]

Lineker did gas in the third against Vera, even said so himself, and was on the backfoot for most of that round, still throwing heat though

It looked like he was coasting in the 3rd.

Maybe Lineker didn't take Vera that seriously and didn't train as hard as he usually does. I've always thought Lineker has shown good conditioning.

I gotta take Lineker against Sandhagen, they shouldn't have rushed Sandhagen into a spot like this I don't think he's ready.

 

[Dianabol]

Yeah. In agreement here. On Bermudez already, gonna be looking to 'hedge' with the u2.5. Bermudez has only put together one particularly terrible performance against Glenn, everything else was pretty solid.

Yeah it's just crazy to think about all the guys Bermudez has been favored over and now this scrub Te Edwards is the smallest favorite of them all.

Bogus decision in the Bermudez vs Glenn fight, Bermudez deserved that one. Elkins and Fili fights were legit coinflips, I had Elkins and Fili winning by the smallest of margins.

As I was saying before, had any of those splits decisions gone the other way yet the performance being the same, you'd be looking at very different line on Bermudez vs Edwards.

Bermudez also fighting at home, loser of this fight probably gets cut.

I'm probably gonna have to take Bermudez too, just a higher level fighter. This is the first card in a long time where I'm not picking any dogs. Unless Dillashaw looks like death on the scale, then I'll pick Cejudo.

 

[Gugabe]

Yeah it's just crazy to think about all the guys Bermudez has been favored over and now this scrub Te Edwards is the smallest favorite of them all.

Bogus decision in the Bermudez vs Glenn fight, Bermudez deserved that one. Elkins and Fili fights were legit coinflips, I had Elkins and Fili winning by the smallest of margins.

As I was saying before, had any of those splits decisions gone the other way yet the performance being the same, you'd be looking at very different line on Bermudez vs Edwards.

Bermudez also fighting at home, loser of this fight probably gets cut.

I'm probably gonna have to take Bermudez too, just a higher level fighter. This is the first card in a long time where I'm not picking any dogs. Unless Dillashaw looks like death on the scale, then I'll pick Cejudo.

Bermudez' look cardio-drained against Glenn. Definitely didn't look like the -400 he should have looked like in there, but Edwards hasn't really accomplished anything in his career to make him evens at this spot.

 

[raketmannen]

It looked like he was coasting in the 3rd.

Maybe Lineker didn't take Vera that seriously and didn't train as hard as he usually does. I've always thought Lineker has shown good conditioning.

I gotta take Lineker against Sandhagen, they shouldn't have rushed Sandhagen into a spot like this I don't think he's ready.

I'm not gonna look for interview right now but I'm 90% certain he himself said he got tired in the 3rd and that it was because he'd had a 1 year layoff since the TJ fight. But yeah he's always shown really good endurance otherwise, that's the only fight I can think of when he's visibly slowed down like that

 

[Dianabol]

Betting lots of favorites really isn't my style but I see a lot of match ups where it's clear who the better fighter is and I like the prices.

PVZ
Cutelaba
Lipski
Brown

Also some value on Lineker, Bermudez.

I'd like to say Hernandez too, I certainly favor him, I'd be on him at -130, hopefully money will come in on Cowboy.

If 3 or more dogs win on this card I'll be surprised. Really think this is one of those cards where favorites are gonna wipe the floor with the dogs.

 

[Oblivian]

It's tempting to bet Bermudez.

Bermudez is the smallest favorite he's been in 15 fights and it's against Te Edwards

All the value is on Bermudez, I think Edwards has a punchers chance. Edwards is younger, bigger and he hits harder, thats it.

Bermudez has only ever been KO'd by Zombie and Stephens.

Edwards comes from a better wrestling background and that was wrestling at a higher weight as well. This is a fight where Bermudez doesn't have his wrestling to fall back on. Once Bermudez fails takedowns, it's like his confidence slips away and he's extremely hesitant. I think it's going to be a rough one for him going up a class against a solid wrestler who hits hard. Also, when you step back and look at Bermudez's career, his 2-6 in his last eight fights with the two wins being Jason and Kawijiri. I think either age has caught up with him, or more likely, MMA just passed him by. He has not really progressed.

 

[Dianabol]

Edwards comes from a better wrestling background and that was wrestling at a higher weight as well. This is a fight where Bermudez doesn't have his wrestling to fall back on. Once Bermudez fails takedowns, it's like his confidence slips away and he's extremely hesitant. I think it's going to be a rough one for him going up a class against a solid wrestler who hits hard. Also, when you step back and look at Bermudez's career, his 2-6 in his last eight fights with the two wins being Jason and Kawijiri. I think either age has caught up with him, or more likely, MMA just passed him by. He has not really progressed.

Does Edwards come from a better wrestling background? Bermudez was a D1 wrestler and all american. I don't know the specifics from Edwards wrestling background.

Bermudez pretty much takes down everyone though, only 3 UFC opponents he hasn't taken down. And I do think Bermudez can hold his own on the feet. Bermudez only completed 1 takedown vs Fili and I thought he won the stand up exchanges. 2-6 over 8 is terrible but lets put it into context, he's losing to solid fighters and you could argue some of those losses should have been wins.

Edwards has just shown me nothing besides athleticism and a right hand, yes he has a wrestling background too but I haven't seen him use it much and his level of competition is pathetic compared to Bermudez. 6-2 is a crap record for a prospect and Edwards has never won a fight outside the 1st round. Edwards doesn't seem to be a full time fighter either, he's fought 8 times since 2013, he's 28 years old.

Bermudez is a big step up for Edwards and Edwards is a step down for Bermudez. I don't think it's a good idea for guys that are 5'6" to fight at LW but guys with similar skillets like Edgar and Guida have shown success. Perhaps cutting less weight will give him more energy too, typically we see good results from guys moving up in weight.

I gotta pick Bermudez but Edwards certainly has the ability to get a KO

 

[Jordan3399]

It's tempting to bet Bermudez.

Bermudez is the smallest favorite he's been in 15 fights and it's against Te Edwards

All the value is on Bermudez, I think Edwards has a punchers chance. Edwards is younger, bigger and he hits harder, thats it.

Bermudez has only ever been KO'd by Zombie and Stephens.

As Oblivian said Edwards has a better wrestling background plus is bigger so should have an advantage there. Not to mention for a division 1 wrestler Bermudez generally underachieved only reliably getting down Rick Glenn in his last 4 fights while he was takendown multiple times by Elkins and Fili. Edwards was at least NCAA Division 1 which is higher than Elkins or Fili who outwrestled Bermudez.

Also in the Lamas fight he was dropped badly by a jab, Lamas just went to his standard guillotine to finish but most fighters would of won by TKO there and Bermudez was dropped by guys like Brandao, Grice, Hayden.

Agree with value probably being on Bermudez slightly but I'm going to wait till I can see Edwards KO line first. Edwards seems like he needs a KO to win while Bermudez has more paths to victory but I don't trust him vs a big puncher that nullify his wrestling at all irrespective of his recent losses.

 

[wack3d]

Does Edwards come from a better wrestling background? Bermudez was a D1 wrestler and all american. I don't know the specifics from Edwards wrestling background.

Bermudez pretty much takes down everyone though, only 3 UFC opponents he hasn't taken down. And I do think Bermudez can hold his own on the feet. Bermudez only completed 1 takedown vs Fili and I thought he won the stand up exchanges. 2-6 over 8 is terrible but lets put it into context, he's losing to solid fighters and you could argue some of those losses should have been wins.

Edwards has just shown me nothing besides athleticism and a right hand, yes he has a wrestling background too but I haven't seen him use it much and his level of competition is pathetic compared to Bermudez. 6-2 is a crap record for a prospect and Edwards has never won a fight outside the 1st round. Edwards doesn't seem to be a full time fighter either, he's fought 8 times since 2013, he's 28 years old.

Bermudez is a big step up for Edwards and Edwards is a step down for Bermudez. I don't think it's a good idea for guys that are 5'6" to fight at LW but guys with similar skillets like Edgar and Guida have shown success. Perhaps cutting less weight will give him more energy too, typically we see good results from guys moving up in weight.

I gotta pick Bermudez but Edwards certainly has the ability to get a KO

he said in a interview he could not get any fights on the regionals. as nobody wanted to fight him becourse of his wrestling pedigree

seems like a tough match Bermudez as i dont think he can use his wrestling here and will be forced into a standup fight againt a much bigger fighter hwo have a 6 inch reach advantage

 

[longway]

Lineker did gas in the third against Vera, even said so himself, and was on the backfoot for most of that round, still throwing heat though

Yeah you are right. He lost the last round. But generally his cardio has held up. I remember one fight, forget which , when he was laying on some heavy and sustained GnP trying to get his opponent out of there until the end of the round, 1st I think, and he wasn't even breathing hard when he got up to go back to his corner at the bell. He has got the ability to go at it several times. Against Dillashaw he was finally having success in catching Dillashaw with heavy body shots in R3, and this was after spending prolonged periods with Dillashaw on top of him, and him trying to muscle himself back to his feet. Overall, his cardio is surprisingly good given his explosiveness.

The Vera fight was his first fight back after Dillashaw, where apparently he had his jaw broken in the 1st round. So maybe it was the extended layoff that affected him.

 

[Soccer Steve]

I'm not going to shy away from the fact that all I'm doing with Menifield-Moreira is pretty much wiki-capping. Maybe I can save others the time...

With an 0:08 KO on a Tuesday fight and then a list of crushed cans what do we have in Menifield? Moreira crushed cans himself but I like the idea of him weathering 8-10 punches, dragging the dude down, and then choking him or ripping an arm off. The Brazilian fought 5 times in 2018 so he's obviously trying to make something of himself as a fighter. I got Moreira at 0.5u for 3u on his ITD line so the submission line might not be too terrible.

 

[Oblivian]

Can someone give a rundown of ESPN+? Is this another streaming service to subscribe to?

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Can someone give a rundown of ESPN+? Is this another streaming service to subscribe to?

It streams a lot of live sports not including NBA NFL or MLB. Theres stupid espn+ originals on there too. Its like 5 bucks a month. Not sure if there is a library of things to watch, I would assume you wont just miss out if you dont catch it live idk I haven't bought it yet. Still murky waters on how it's going to work with fight pass if events will be put on there to stream later or not.

 

[Oblivian]

It streams a lot of live sports not including NBA NFL or MLB. Theres stupid espn+ originals on there too. Its like 5 bucks a month. Not sure if there is a library of things to watch, I would assume you wont just miss out if you dont catch it live idk I haven't bought it yet. Still murky waters on how it's going to work with fight pass if events will be put on there to stream later or not.

Thanks. I think it's ridiculous to have Fight Pass and then another streaming service on top of it. I'm wondering if this will last. I'll probably play the free trial game for a while.