UFN 142 Dos Santos vs Tuivasa

[Kyle Stephens]

Yeah on tape he looked like a bad matchup for overeem. Maybe usada?

My personal opinion is octagon jitters. And the fact that he faces the legend of Overeem not helping here. He was 1 year removed from his last fight, he looked little bigger than on tape, so that can have an effect on your speed. But he shat the bed for me in this one. Overeem backs away to the fences with high guard and just waits in every fight. If there is any time to pounce on him, this is it!!! I remember JDS let him off the hook in the same position, Big Country too. I don't know what magic he uses, but the Reem has this effect on people, they respect him for no clear reason. They think he got some tricky move that he'll do off the cage or something? I think that K-1, Strikeforce Ubereem aura still in play.

 

[chemmy]

Patterns of losses and wins indicates that out of these fighters, 50% or less win will.

JDS

Hunt

Pedro

Matthews

Crute

Mokhatarian

If your selection does resemble these picks, I'd advise you to change more than 50% of your choice. I know its not helpful at all but it is better than nothing.

Not purposely trying to be a dick, but I honestly don’t think it is better than nothing. Win/loss patterns basically mean nothing in this sport. Each matchup is competely independent.

 

[chemmy]

Fuck easy win, man, no way. You saw JDS vs that slob Ivanov? Come on, prime JDS was a killer, Ivanov would not see a second round. I'll be honest with you, guys - I'm fading Cigano's ass since he lost to Reem. I bet huge agains him vs Miocic and again to Rothwell. I was blidned by greed and despide I saw that Rothwell is big slow dumb guy on tape that eats straight shots, I thought he just have to touch him once. Money in the trash there. I was more prepared and didn't fade him against Ivanov, I know Ivanov just don't have the tools in the stand-up and he is plain slow. He couldn't do much but be there for 25 mins because he has good chin and JDS won't risk being knocked out by some no name guy making his debut.

This here is totally different. Tai is MUCH MUCH faster than Ivanov, he is just as tough if not more, and has more cardio. The guy is young, you saw his uninspiring performance vs Andrei, but he could be a lot better in this fight, the time is on his side. JDS trains @ ATT, but he just use their guys to spar, mainly he is coached by his trainer. So ATT advantage and some new layers to his game is out of the question here. We'll see the SAME EXACT JDS that we saw vs Ivanov, and he could be even worse.

JDS relies heavily on backpedaling when on the defence. This leads him directly near or on the fence where Tai makes his hay. Junior does not use clinches or other methods to buy some time until he resets in the center of the octagon, he is just faster a lot of the times than the opponent, or scares them with power (in the past when he was younger, now people don't fear him so much) and this is largely what keeps him from getting knocked out every time he fights in my humble opinion. JDS doesn't kick, doesn't fight in the clinch or wrestle or nothing other than box. In the disntant past, his fast feet and hands helped him avoid counters and getting pushed to the fence, his sturdy chin absorbed with no problem what slipped through this defence. He is not any of these things now.

Don't bet Junior, people of sherdog (on - moneyline). Be smart, avoid this fight. Cigano is getting KTFO here.

You make a few good points here, but IMO “that slob Ivanov” is pretty much on par with Tuivasa, aside from Tai having a better chance at closing the distance quickly and cornering JDS. JDS is my biggest play of the card so far. I think he coasts here for the most part.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

You make a few good points here, but IMO “that slob Ivanov” is pretty much on par with Tuivasa,

I thought the same before tape study. I don't know if I am seeing things that are not there, but I think Tai is better counter-puncher than Blagoy. He has some head movement in the pocket that will allow him to catch JDS in a trade. At the minimun he is a little faster and puts more weight into his punches. But I hope your bet cashes.

 

[chemmy]

I thought the same before tape study. I don't know if I am seeing things that are not there, but I think Tai is better counter-puncher than Blagoy. He has some head movement in the pocket that will allow him to catch JDS in a trade. At the minimun he is a little faster and puts more weight into his punches. But I hope your bet cashes.

I think Tuivasa has lots of potential but I feel like he’s still another 3 fights or so away from being on JDS’ level. I expect it to be a good learning experience for him though, especially if he hangs in there for the full 25.

 

[northsofia]

I thought the same before tape study. I don't know if I am seeing things that are not there, but I think Tai is better counter-puncher than Blagoy. He has some head movement in the pocket that will allow him to catch JDS in a trade. At the minimun he is a little faster and puts more weight into his punches. But I hope your bet cashes.

I see Tuivasa`s striking as a little sloppy. I think Blagoy is a little more technical, but he doesnt have a lot of power in his hands, because his arms are shorter. Tuivasa posesses a lot more power, but he catched Arlovski clear a few times and Andrei stayed on his feed. Maybe his power is a little overrated. Maybe he can catch JDS in the first, but after this i dont see him getting the KO.

 

[2bet]

I watched tape on Willis to remind myself how he fights. I see why some of you want to bet against him. I am not saying he's gonna win or things like that. No! But he is not an easy task for Hunt and Hunt is not an easy task for him. In my eyes this is a close fight.

Both fighters wait on the counter, don't have much gas. Maybe Willis will have a little more in the tank this time, he is younger after all, he can improve his cardio easier. Willis is heavy handed as Hunt, but can take a punch maybe better now that Hunt took so much damage and he is old? I didn't like how he stumbled by Oleynik's looping hook. Can't imagine how the fight is gonna play out, just a wild guess I pick Willis by KO. As far as betting - just no.

Watched some tape on Tai-JDS fight. We all know JDS is too easy to be pushed to the the fence, still. But I think unexpected place where Tai can hit him with clear punches is in the open space. JDS is leading with commited long lefts and rights (I think because he jumps in and out of boxing range, he does not stay there) and doesn't fake (much) so the timing is predictable, and when he misses he is in a comprimised position and to make matters worse - he is never ready with a counter. Tai can stay his ground and counter him with a hard left hook. Ivanov did something similar in the brief instances he tried to make something happen, so I am sure Tai can do it too. And Tai did counter well against Arlovski. Arlovski was apprehensive to do his short blitzes, like he did against Albini and Struve, because Tai countered a few of those. As far as cardio, Tai looked fine 1st and 2nd rounds v Andrei, the last he was getting visibly tired and his footwork was reduced to plodding. But he was in better physical shape than his fights before in the UFC, IMO.
JDS does not clinch when trapped on the fence, but rather frames and pushes you away from him. He is so worried to get the hell out of there that he is often easy to find with a punch in the same time or moment after he breaks the clinch.

Good arguments for Tuivasa, I will rethink betting JDS.

I will stand my ground with good old Hunt though.
Only 3 months after getting knocked out by Overeem Mark Hunt took good care of the Black Beast. He didn't fall for those Black Beast comebacks, like everybody else. Mark Hunt is a smart fighter.
The Mark Hunt from back then would have been a big favourite against a Willis that only ever beat a Chase Sherman by decision. Sure, Hunt did get older and definitly not better in the meantime, but if he is 80% the fighter from back then it should be enough IMO
Further points:
- He doesn't have to learn any new tricks to beat Willis, Hunt has seen it all and Willis brings nothing new to the table. It's a good match-up
- He did not get beaten up in the Olynik loss, so his duribility threshold did not get worse by that fight
- I imagine it to be a rather measured fight, Hunts cardio will not be tested that much
- he does have kind of a home advantage in Australia, there will be no jetlag for him and it's definitely not the same as fighting in Russia against a submission wizard
- I expect him to be fucking focused and motivated for his farewell fight

Of course he needs to be fit and healthy. If his right arm looks as fucked up as in the Olynik fight I will shorten my bet for sure, no question.
That is actually my biggest concern. It's not his age, that he might underestimate Willis, or that he took so much damage throughout the years.
My biggest concern is that he will come to fight at that event, no matter what. If he is injured he might just fight anyway, he has that warrior attitude. He doesn't give a shit.
Otherwise he would have not fought in goddamn Russia with that freakin' weird looking right arm of his.

 

[Soccer Steve]

All due respect, but how did Kyle Stephens go from eye-roll posts to GOAT so quickly? Ghost of Budden, that you...?

 

[Cockadoodle]

Suman Monktarian is flying out the door, odds have gone from 3.65 to 5.25 and sinking fast. He wasnt very impressive in the TUF house, seemed to talk a fair game but definitely could see nerves in his performance and possibly lack of potential.
Sodiq Yusuff looked the ducks nutts on TNC against a good opponent hence the pricing.

Suman did suffer an ACL tear during that fight which could have affected him, and it was weird to see that a guy who has 6/8 submission victories spend no time on the ground. Saw no time on the ground from Sodiq either so unsure of his pedigree although he hails from a jiu jitsu gym and says the only reason he hasnt displayed jitsu is because his striking has worked up until now.

Both fighters will be debuting in the UFC and Suman will be at home.
Am wondering what price he would have to get to before I took a small stab

 

[MMAOracle]

Not purposely trying to be a dick, but I honestly don’t think it is better than nothing. Win/loss patterns basically mean nothing in this sport. Each matchup is competely independent.

yup, you are 100% correct. wins and losses pattern don't mean crap. I am not a moron so I know I am just looking at false patterns but shoot, it is very difficult to ignore these statistical data. Like for instance, the crowd's chance of getting the fighter correct comes out to 60% accuracy rate. I then see that the main card prediction accuracy rate is only 57%. Whenever this happened, the main card prediction rate always recovered back to 60% in a cyclical manner. Also, undergdogs mostly win main card in consecutive events.

 

[null]

Really tempted on Mark Hunt at +100 vs Justin Willis, especially if Hunt is healthy and not infected with staph like it appeared in his last fight vs Oleinik.

Alright, I'm not waiting any longer: 2u on Hunto at evens. Willis' best win is Chase Sherman and it was only a decision victory. I'll take a chance on The Super Samoan Down Under even at 44 years old.

 

[kevinramsdell]

If JDS can't beat sloppy af Tua I will never bet MMA again and just stick to basketball & football.

 

[kevinramsdell]

@Kyle Stephens DM me some parlay picks and I'll venmo you some cash if they hit

 

[piglord]

Suman Monktarian is flying out the door, odds have gone from 3.65 to 5.25 and sinking fast. He wasnt very impressive in the TUF house, seemed to talk a fair game but definitely could see nerves in his performance and possibly lack of potential.
Sodiq Yusuff looked the ducks nutts on TNC against a good opponent hence the pricing.

Suman did suffer an ACL tear during that fight which could have affected him, and it was weird to see that a guy who has 6/8 submission victories spend no time on the ground. Saw no time on the ground from Sodiq either so unsure of his pedigree although he hails from a jiu jitsu gym and says the only reason he hasnt displayed jitsu is because his striking has worked up until now.

Both fighters will be debuting in the UFC and Suman will be at home.
Am wondering what price he would have to get to before I took a small stab

might as well wait for the sub line man, i don't see how suman wins by dec or ko.

 

[piglord]

my picks:

http://piglordmma.com/2018/11/28/tuf-finale-28-ufc-fight-night-142-betting-predictions/

 

[MMAOracle]

<Straight>
Martial Arts - 24202 Junior Dos Santos -142 for Game
Martial Arts - 24206 Mark Hunt +100 for Game
Martial Arts - 24401 Rafael Dos Anjos +225 for Game
Martial Arts - 24209 Mauricio Rua +360 for Game

<Parlay I>
Martial Arts - 24202 Junior Dos Santos -142 for Game
Martial Arts - 24210 Tyson Pedro -500 for Game
Martial Arts - 24206 Mark Hunt +100 for Game

<Parlay II>
Martial Arts - 24422 Antonina Shevchenko -310 for Game
Martial Arts - 24401 Rafael Dos Anjos +225 for Game

step (3/3) due diligence check/ stats check/ other's opinion check
Hope I can redo last week. Fingers crossed.

 

[conmemay]

Here's hoping Hunto wins one last time in Australia and ko Willis. Hunt needs to be patient and keeps his guard up in the first round tho. His chin is no longer rock solid and Willis is an explosive mf for someone looking overweight like him. HUNT KO3.

 

[Brockstar]

Hometown advantage can play a factor when it goes to the judges, it dosen't prevent you from being knocked out smh. Also some people thrive on the energy and support from the crowd, others don't

Hometown factor plays a big part in timezone change for visiting fighter, elevation, comforts of home and food. If guys don’t take those into account it can play a huge factor.

For this card I would say timezone would be a factor if the fighters don’t go to AUS early enough to adjust.

 

[zeckdo]

Sooooo little footage on Kai Kara, can't search the TUF fights on fight pass for some retarted reason. Had to look up the TUF season to find what episode he fought Pantoja. https://www.ufc.tv/video/episode-2408-round-two fight starts at 16:45.

 

[matthew55]

Sooooo little footage on Kai Kara, can't search the TUF fights on fight pass for some retarted reason. Had to look up the TUF season to find what episode he fought Pantoja. https://www.ufc.tv/video/episode-2408-round-two fight starts at 16:45.

fightpass used to have the upcoming event and the fight card so you could easily watch whatever figher's videos that you want. Do you still have that? It kind of irks me, I know I can just do a search but fack!