UFN 142 Dos Santos vs Tuivasa

[Gugabe]

I still regret not taking the shot on Oleynik, he was like +220 at one point, such easy money.

Hunt is fighting in Australia not NZ but the Aussies cheer for him just as much. Hunt looked good against Lewis but Lewis' back was apparently super messed up in that fight, Lewis didn't look like himself. Had one good moment in the Bladyes fight where he hurt Bladyes in the 1st round but then got wrestled.

Totally possible Hunt could win here though, Willis is green and he's very beatable, it's a close fight I think, I want no part of it.

Oleynik may have won, but a lot of the movement was on that weird Staph thing on Hunt's arm IMO. And Hunt still needed to shit the bed to hand Oleynik a win even in his old age, I'd happily take Hunt in a re-run at evens.

 

[Dianabol]

Oleynik may have won, but a lot of the movement was on that weird Staph thing on Hunt's arm IMO. And Hunt still needed to shit the bed to hand Oleynik a win even in his old age, I'd happily take Hunt in a re-run at evens.

No way I would take Hunt in a rematch, fight is over once it hits the mat

What do you think of Crute vs Craig? I like Crute but I want at least -160

 

[Broe.]

No way I would take Hunt in a rematch, fight is over once it hits the mat

What do you think of Crute vs Craig? I like Crute but I want at least -160

I don't like crute very much, he seemed very hittable in the contender series fight and he also seemed to be pretty slow and to tire rather fast. I know Craig sucks but he has got more experience and also more quality wins. This fight should be a pick'em imo. I put a small bet on Craig x 2.75

 

[Gugabe]

No way I would take Hunt in a rematch, fight is over once it hits the mat

What do you think of Crute vs Craig? I like Crute but I want at least -160

Rolled with Crute before. Dude's got good grappling, but I have no idea how good Craig's grappling is in practice. Didn't like how he looked on TNC, definitely didn't come across as a -600.

Oleynik tried, tried and tried again to get it down but couldn't until he winged Hunt with a big shot whilst literally standing on one healthy leg.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Sounds weird but Shogun actually looked good and dangerous in the Smith fight, I liked his movement and handspeed. It was an excellent counter right hand from Smith off the backfoot that he just didn't see coming that got him. On reflection that was a really high level counter punch and Smith showed fine balance finishing the fight. He never loses balance and throws the right strikes. Here we have Pedro whos a bit lumbering and may not have the highest fight IQ in the world. He will bang with Shogun and try to create a KO, he's not really a counter puncher who can let the KO come to him like Smith did.

Totally different dynamic and I'm writing the Smith fight off when I look at this fight. At the odds, I'll take a stab at Shogun

Shogun at +336 in my bookie. Went 1u on him. Will be happy to freerroll if the odds allow it.

Shogun is still dangerous. He has a shot chin and a lot of holes in his defense (that have been there forever but he used to have an iron chin).
Pedro is younger and bigger with all the benefits that come with it. No nearly the same level of wear and tear between those 2.

This is where I can explain the -390 / + 336 odds. BUT...

We have an explosive veteran against a way less experienced fighter who has passed the 1rst round only once in his career. I think that the gap closes a bit there because while Pedro has everything to win here he still exposes himself to getting finished.

I still think Shogun will lose this one because he has been done for years now and I will happily freeroll if money comes from him. But at these odds I have to go with the veteran.

PS: I think Anthony Smith is underrated. Dude looks fantastic at 205.

 

[Gugabe]

Shogun at +336 in my bookie. Went 1u on him. Will be happy to freerroll if the odds allow it.

Shogun is still dangerous. He has a shot chin and a lot of holes in his defense (that have been there forever but he used to have an iron chin).
Pedro is younger and bigger with all the benefits that come with it. No nearly the same level of wear and tear between those 2.

This is where I can explain the -390 / + 336 odds. BUT...

We have an explosive veteran against a way less experienced fighter who has passed the 1rst round only once in his career. I think that the gap closes a bit there because while Pedro has everything to win here he still exposes himself to getting finished.

I still think Shogun will lose this one because he has been done for years now and I will happily freeroll if money comes from him. But at these odds I have to go with the veteran.

PS: I think Anthony Smith is underrated. Dude looks fantastic at 205.

Anthony Smith is my boy after he cashed that +1750 Sub3 bet in his last fight, but I think it's going a bit far to say he looks fantastic. I'll say he looks fantastic after he comes in on 3 days notice to stop Jon Jones this New Years.

 

[MMAOracle]

after watching both tapes of tuivasa and dos santos, I think tuivasa will win.

tuivasa
1) this guy can withstand massive shots
2) he is fairly skilled striker
3) UFC favors him a lot. the fight with Andrei should have been a draw or a loss but oddly tuivasa won.

dos santos
1) good footwork
2) precision striker
3) crazy experience

This is gonna be a striker vs striker match. Dos santos rarely take things to the ground. If he is going toe to toe with tuivasa, I have feeling dos santos will get pummeled. What are your thoughts?

NVM. I take it all back. After much deliberation, I switched sides to JDS. Tuivasa will be tasting defeat soon. I can smell it.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

3) UFC favors him a lot. the fight with Andrei should have been a draw or a loss but oddly tuivasa won.

You are not the guy that said that UFC affects the results of the fights on purpose right?

 

[Dianabol]

I don't like crute very much, he seemed very hittable in the contender series fight and he also seemed to be pretty slow and to tire rather fast. I know Craig sucks but he has got more experience and also more quality wins. This fight should be a pick'em imo. I put a small bet on Craig x 2.75

Rolled with Crute before. Dude's got good grappling, but I have no idea how good Craig's grappling is in practice. Didn't like how he looked on TNC, definitely didn't come across as a -600.

Oleynik tried, tried and tried again to get it down but couldn't until he winged Hunt with a big shot whilst literally standing on one healthy leg.

Yeah I wasn't that impressed with Crute's performance on DWTNCS, he looked like he lacked composure, he is still very green. His defense wasn't great either. But I do see good potential in Crute, his game just needs to be developed and polished more.

Any powerful athletic striker against Paul Craig has a good chance at winning. Crute also a brown belt in BJJ.

Craig really doesn't have much wrestling and he's not physical or athletic at all. His striking is weak, his chin is also weak, he's a vulnerable fighter. All he has is a decent offensive sub game.

I think Crute KO's Craig but I hope he can show more composure than he did in his last fight

 

[MMAOracle]

You are not the guy that said that UFC affects the results of the fights on purpose right?

I am. I am the dude who said UFC tries to groom certain fighters by overlooking certain things. A good example is the khabib vs conor fight. Another example is Souza vs Gastelum, where Souza should have won. I also said that Herb Dean is super fishy. I also mentioned how UFC has a HUGE incentive to constantly make super fights. Yes, I am that guy.

 

[MMAOracle]

I finished watching Pedro and Rua's tapes. This is pretty close and Pedro has a slight edge but the money line is heavily skewed. Rua is at +360. Rua has slightly less than 50% of winning but the line is VERY VERY good.

 

[Stunna77]

Yeah I wasn't that impressed with Crute's performance on DWTNCS, he looked like he lacked composure, he is still very green. His defense wasn't great either. But I do see good potential in Crute, his game just needs to be developed and polished more.

Any powerful athletic striker against Paul Craig has a good chance at winning. Crute also a brown belt in BJJ.

Craig really doesn't have much wrestling and he's not physical or athletic at all. His striking is weak, his chin is also weak, he's a vulnerable fighter. All he has is a decent offensive sub game.

I think Crute KO's Craig but I hope he can show more composure than he did in his last fight

Finished tape on this fight last night. Sub or bust again for Craig. He lacks any semblance of servicable boxing and Crute will take away his kicks with his constant forward movement. Crute is the better wrestler and looks to pass guard as soon as the fight hits the mat, which is big here since Craig is really only dangerous if you play around in his guard, he looks lost from top position. I went into tape not knowing much about Crute besides his TNC fight, so I assumed he was a striker. Was pleasantly suprised to see he had a wrestling/judo background and starting bjj at 12. It would be smart of him to just tear Craig up on the feet with his boxing combo's, but he does have a heavy top game as well. Craig sub would be an easy hedge if that is people's style. I went 3u -185.

 

[2bet]

20u deep on Hunt, I am confident that the old warhorse will make it look easy.
Getting submitted by Oleynik is irrelevant for this match-up.

I also share the love for JDS, if JDS doesn't get koed he won't lose this, Tuivasa by KO should be a good hedge

 

[raketmannen]

I finished watching Pedro and Rua's tapes. This is pretty close and Pedro has a slight edge but the money line is heavily skewed. Rua is at +360. Rua has slightly less than 50% of winning but the line is VERY VERY good.

Don't agree at all with it being almost a 50/50 fight, Shogun is slow as molasses nowadays and his chin is shot. He was pretty much losing against Gian Villante before getting a KO in the third and that was years ago. The same Villante that goes to split decision with Herman and Cummins. He still got power in his hands but Pedro seems to have a really good chin, he ate clean bombs from Latifi.
I expect a first round KO from Pedro by a straight right or a headkick

 

[northsofia]

Correct me if i am wrong, but i think Shogun said before the Smith fight, that he has a big advantage on the ground and he will try to use it. Maybe this time he will really do it, Pedro`s ground game is not very good and i think this is the only way that Shogun can win this. Shogun SUB will be a lot better than his ML if you are Rua fan.

 

[NorthernLights]

At evens I'll gladly bet Hunt.

20u deep on Hunt, I am confident that the old warhorse will make it look easy.
Getting submitted by Oleynik is irrelevant for this match-up.

I also share the love for JDS, if JDS doesn't get koed he won't lose this, Tuivasa by KO should be a good hedge

I agree with everything you said but putting 1/5 of your bankroll in the hands of 2018 Hunt is asking for trouble.

 

[Baba87]

50€ on : jds , hunt and rua.... i will try it

 

[Soccer Steve]

Don't agree at all with it being almost a 50/50 fight, Shogun is slow as molasses nowadays and his chin is shot. He was pretty much losing against Gian Villante before getting a KO in the third and that was years ago. The same Villante that goes to split decision with Herman and Cummins. He still got power in his hands but Pedro seems to have a really good chin, he ate clean bombs from Latifi.
I expect a first round KO from Pedro by a straight right or a headkick

I agree. The bookies aren't stupid, they definitely set traps and this one, like the Brunson line against Adesanya, has all the makings of a trap.

 

[Sadistics]

I agree. The bookies aren't stupid, they definitely set traps and this one, like the Brunson line against Adesanya, has all the makings of a trap.

The books don't form the line, bettors do. They also don't often care who wins or losses as they profit either way from the vig.

 

[zeckdo]

Don't agree at all with it being almost a 50/50 fight, Shogun is slow as molasses nowadays and his chin is shot. He was pretty much losing against Gian Villante before getting a KO in the third and that was years ago. The same Villante that goes to split decision with Herman and Cummins. He still got power in his hands but Pedro seems to have a really good chin, he ate clean bombs from Latifi.
I expect a first round KO from Pedro by a straight right or a headkick

spot on man. I would use the dog shelter line to describe Shogun here.