Guys, I didn't notice that there are TWO events next to each other. I would be all over this thread, because I have what to say about couple of fights, and for the TUF 28 Finale - not so much.
Fuck easy win, man, no way. You saw JDS vs that slob Ivanov? Come on, prime JDS was a killer, Ivanov would not see a second round. I'll be honest with you, guys - I'm fading Cigano's ass since he lost to Reem. I bet huge agains him vs Miocic and again to Rothwell. I was blidned by greed and despide I saw that Rothwell is big slow dumb guy on tape that eats straight shots, I thought he just have to touch him once. Money in the trash there.
I was more prepared and didn't fade him against Ivanov, I know Ivanov just don't have the tools in the stand-up and he is plain slow. He couldn't do much but be there for 25 mins because he has good chin and JDS won't risk being knocked out by some no name guy making his debut.
This here is totally different. Tai is MUCH MUCH faster than Ivanov, he is just as tough if not more, and has more cardio. The guy is young, you saw his uninspiring performance vs Andrei, but he could be a lot better in this fight, the time is on his side. JDS trains @ ATT, but he just use their guys to spar, mainly he is coached by his trainer. So ATT advantage and some new layers to his game is
out of the question here. We'll see the SAME EXACT JDS that we saw vs Ivanov, and he could be even worse.
JDS relies heavily on backpedaling when on the defence. This leads him directly
near or on the fence where
Tai makes his hay. Junior does not use clinches or other methods to buy some time until he resets in the center of the octagon, he is just faster a lot of the times than the opponent, or scares them with power (in the past when he was younger, now people don't fear him so much) and this is largely what keeps him from getting knocked out every time he fights in my humble opinion. JDS doesn't kick, doesn't fight in the clinch or wrestle or nothing other than box.
In the disntant past, his fast feet and hands helped him avoid counters and getting pushed to the fence, his sturdy chin absorbed with no problem what slipped through this defence. He is not
any of these things now.
Don't bet Junior, people of sherdog (on - moneyline). Be smart, avoid this fight. Cigano is getting KTFO here.
Getting
clipped and visibly little hurt by Oleynik in the same fight IS! Be warned. Hunto legendary chin is no more there. Don't bet old Hunt. I get that Overeem won last week vs some newcommer and your trust in the old HW dogs is back, but Big Pretty is not new to UFC first, and second, he trains at AKA. I don't want to bet against their guys unless I for sure know it's an easy match-up. 20u - you are crazy, you are crazy! Hunt has one way to win this, he has to knock him out, or he is losing it. He is not a consistent winner on the scorecards, he does not have the cardio to do it and he does not wrestle or fight in the clinch, he is almost pure counter puncher now, so scoring a lot of points striking is tough to do for him. He can get outworked.
Shogun is gonna get knocked the fuck out, agree.
It will be something like a 1 in a 100 if Rua wins this. Rua does not have ANY paths to victory here. He is slow, plodding, out of shape, doesn't have chin, doesn't have grappling edge, wrestling edge, he got dick here. Pedro could win every way he chooses to. Even if he want to give the victory it's gonna be difficult. He was that close to beat knock OSP out, and a lot faster than the new exciting prospect in Dom Reyes was able to do it eventuallyu. OSP fought a lot better vs Reyes, but still, Pedro was dropping him out of the gate.
He loves to grapple, even when he does not have clear edge there, he is going for it. I don't know why. His stand-up game is improving but can it be because he got a
lot thicker and muscle blound all of a sudden? Guy is a fucking gorilla now. I remember how Kevin Lee said he is the strongest fighter he fought, just by pure strength. But his new found comfort in striking could be easily shaken by one good punch I think, and Tony Martin is really doing well with his striking. 50-50 in my mind I give slight advantage to Martin because I think his fight mentality is stronger and he makes good decisions infight. Tough to take a side with confidence. Somebody else that has more knowledge here could be very confident in a pick, I am not.