UFN 142 Dos Santos vs Tuivasa

I'm loving Kunchenko, even at -300. The guy who ends up beating him will be either a guy who keeps his distance and outpoints him with kicks (like Alves almost did), or a cleaner boxer. His striking style evolved in Russia and is very TDD-focused, and he has shown good TDD when guys have gotten a hold of him.

As a whole, the level of the sport's striking has evolved past Okami and he seems to be purely a grinder these days.
I had Alves winning that fight 2-1, but I believe that Ghost Okami'll lose pretty clearly here.
 
4) hometown advantage, doesn't seem like it gets talked about much on here but to me it can be a pretty big factor, mainly with the crowd and energy the fighter feeds off of (seemingly, I'm no fighter) and possibly sapping the energy and life a bit out out of an opponent as well as if it goes to a decision and is close, the judges can't help but be biased
Yeah sometimes but weidman got his ass handed by souza in nyc...
 
Have you been posting your bets up? Not a fan of people boasting their winnings but have no proof...
I think someone took this from a post from the last fight forum, and I don't think he was boasting really, perhaps a humble brag
Yeah sometimes but weidman got his ass handed by souza in nyc...
I'd say that Weidman was winning that fight even though I had Jacare. I also don't think the NY/NJ or USA in general homecrowds are as powerful as other countries, not quite as raucus
 
I think someone took this from a post from the last fight forum, and I don't think he was boasting really, perhaps a humble brag

I'd say that Weidman was winning that fight even though I had Jacare. I also don't think the NY/NJ or USA in general homecrowds are as powerful as other countries, not quite as raucus
yup weidman was winning in terms of significant strikes landed but Jacare was looking so much better than Weidman. So when Weidman was KOed, i was not surprised. I just cried in the corner. Lost 4u on Weidman. I can still hear "lets go Wiedman lets go...lets go Weidman lets go.." and then the cheering turned to "USA USA." I thought lex luger was about to drop yokozuna.
 
Patterns of losses and wins indicates that out of these fighters, 50% or less win will.

JDS

Hunt

Pedro

Matthews

Crute

Mokhatarian

If your selection does resemble these picks, I'd advise you to change more than 50% of your choice. I know its not helpful at all but it is better than nothing.
 
Yeah sometimes but weidman got his ass handed by souza in nyc...
Hometown advantage can play a factor when it goes to the judges, it dosen't prevent you from being knocked out smh. Also some people thrive on the energy and support from the crowd, others don't
 
Hometown advantage can play a factor when it goes to the judges, it dosen't prevent you from being knocked out smh
yup. agreed. I guess if it goes to decision, then hometown is a factor.
 
Jake vs Tony Martin.. the thing with Jake is we dont know how much improved he will come. After the fight with Bojan he came like a version 2.0 to the Li Jingliang fight so its hard to bet against him even if I like Tony Martin in this fight. He improved his stand up and has good grappling too but what if a terminator Jake shows up again ?
 
1.5U JDS @ 1.70, JDS is at his best vs slow plodding strikers. This should be a relatively easy win.
Guys, I didn't notice that there are TWO events next to each other. I would be all over this thread, because I have what to say about couple of fights, and for the TUF 28 Finale - not so much.
Fuck easy win, man, no way. You saw JDS vs that slob Ivanov? Come on, prime JDS was a killer, Ivanov would not see a second round. I'll be honest with you, guys - I'm fading Cigano's ass since he lost to Reem. I bet huge agains him vs Miocic and again to Rothwell. I was blidned by greed and despide I saw that Rothwell is big slow dumb guy on tape that eats straight shots, I thought he just have to touch him once. Money in the trash there. :( I was more prepared and didn't fade him against Ivanov, I know Ivanov just don't have the tools in the stand-up and he is plain slow. He couldn't do much but be there for 25 mins because he has good chin and JDS won't risk being knocked out by some no name guy making his debut.

This here is totally different. Tai is MUCH MUCH faster than Ivanov, he is just as tough if not more, and has more cardio. The guy is young, you saw his uninspiring performance vs Andrei, but he could be a lot better in this fight, the time is on his side. JDS trains @ ATT, but he just use their guys to spar, mainly he is coached by his trainer. So ATT advantage and some new layers to his game is out of the question here. We'll see the SAME EXACT JDS that we saw vs Ivanov, and he could be even worse.

JDS relies heavily on backpedaling when on the defence. This leads him directly near or on the fence where Tai makes his hay. Junior does not use clinches or other methods to buy some time until he resets in the center of the octagon, he is just faster a lot of the times than the opponent, or scares them with power (in the past when he was younger, now people don't fear him so much) and this is largely what keeps him from getting knocked out every time he fights in my humble opinion. JDS doesn't kick, doesn't fight in the clinch or wrestle or nothing other than box. In the disntant past, his fast feet and hands helped him avoid counters and getting pushed to the fence, his sturdy chin absorbed with no problem what slipped through this defence. He is not any of these things now.

Don't bet Junior, people of sherdog (on - moneyline). Be smart, avoid this fight. Cigano is getting KTFO here.

20u deep on Hunt, I am confident that the old warhorse will make it look easy.
Getting submitted by Oleynik is irrelevant for this match-up.
Getting clipped and visibly little hurt by Oleynik in the same fight IS! Be warned. Hunto legendary chin is no more there. Don't bet old Hunt. I get that Overeem won last week vs some newcommer and your trust in the old HW dogs is back, but Big Pretty is not new to UFC first, and second, he trains at AKA. I don't want to bet against their guys unless I for sure know it's an easy match-up. 20u - you are crazy, you are crazy! Hunt has one way to win this, he has to knock him out, or he is losing it. He is not a consistent winner on the scorecards, he does not have the cardio to do it and he does not wrestle or fight in the clinch, he is almost pure counter puncher now, so scoring a lot of points striking is tough to do for him. He can get outworked.

Don't agree at all with it being almost a 50/50 fight, Shogun is slow as molasses nowadays and his chin is shot.
Shogun is gonna get knocked the fuck out, agree.
It will be something like a 1 in a 100 if Rua wins this. Rua does not have ANY paths to victory here. He is slow, plodding, out of shape, doesn't have chin, doesn't have grappling edge, wrestling edge, he got dick here. Pedro could win every way he chooses to. Even if he want to give the victory it's gonna be difficult. He was that close to beat knock OSP out, and a lot faster than the new exciting prospect in Dom Reyes was able to do it eventuallyu. OSP fought a lot better vs Reyes, but still, Pedro was dropping him out of the gate.

He improved his stand up and has good grappling too but what if a terminator Jake shows up again ?
He loves to grapple, even when he does not have clear edge there, he is going for it. I don't know why. His stand-up game is improving but can it be because he got a lot thicker and muscle bound all of a sudden? Guy is a fucking gorilla now. I remember how Kevin Lee said he is the strongest fighter he fought, just by pure strength. But his new found comfort in striking could be easily shaken by one good punch I think, and Tony Martin is really doing well with his striking. 50-50 in my mind I give slight advantage to Martin because I think his fight mentality is stronger and he makes good decisions infight. Tough to take a side with confidence. Somebody else that has more knowledge here could be very confident in a pick, I am not.
 
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Personaly I like only Justin Willis and Salim to win their fights.
 
Kyle, what are your thoughts on Matthews/Martins and Reis/Nguyen?
 
Raket, in the last paragraph I wrote little about Matthews/Martins fight.
I have not seen recent fights of Reis and of Nguyen.
 
my BS number analysis tells me

1) tuivasa
2) willis
3) rua
4) Matthews

step (2/3)
 
I watched tape on Willis to remind myself how he fights. I see why some of you want to bet against him. I am not saying he's gonna win or things like that. No! But he is not an easy task for Hunt and Hunt is not an easy task for him. In my eyes this is a close fight.

Both fighters wait on the counter, don't have much gas. Maybe Willis will have a little more in the tank this time, he is younger after all, he can improve his cardio easier. Willis is heavy handed as Hunt, but can take a punch maybe better now that Hunt took so much damage and he is old? I didn't like how he stumbled by Oleynik's looping hook. Can't imagine how the fight is gonna play out, just a wild guess I pick Willis by KO. As far as betting - just no.

Watched some tape on Tai-JDS fight. We all know JDS is too easy to be pushed to the the fence, still. But I think unexpected place where Tai can hit him with clear punches is in the open space. JDS is leading with commited long lefts and rights (I think because he jumps in and out of boxing range, he does not stay there) and doesn't fake (much) so the timing is predictable, and when he misses he is in a comprimised position and to make matters worse - he is never ready with a counter. Tai can stay his ground and counter him with a hard left hook. Ivanov did something similar in the brief instances he tried to make something happen, so I am sure Tai can do it too. And Tai did counter well against Arlovski. Arlovski was apprehensive to do his short blitzes, like he did against Albini and Struve, because Tai countered a few of those. As far as cardio, Tai looked fine 1st and 2nd rounds v Andrei, the last he was getting visibly tired and his footwork was reduced to plodding. But he was in better physical shape than his fights before in the UFC, IMO.
JDS does not clinch when trapped on the fence, but rather frames and pushes you away from him. He is so worried to get the hell out of there that he is often easy to find with a punch in the same time or moment after he breaks the clinch.
 
Just wanted to add something we all have to have in mind when betting (I will post it in the both threads)
FIGHTER ON TAPE

FIGHTER IN LIVE ACTION
 
Just wanted to add something we all have to have in mind when betting (I will post it in the both threads)
FIGHTER ON TAPE

FIGHTER IN LIVE ACTION
Yeah on tape he looked like a bad matchup for overeem. Maybe usada?
 
Guys, I didn't notice that there are TWO events next to each other. I would be all over this thread, because I have what to say about couple of fights, and for the TUF 28 Finale - not so much.
Fuck easy win, man, no way. You saw JDS vs that slob Ivanov? Come on, prime JDS was a killer, Ivanov would not see a second round. I'll be honest with you, guys - I'm fading Cigano's ass since he lost to Reem. I bet huge agains him vs Miocic and again to Rothwell. I was blidned by greed and despide I saw that Rothwell is big slow dumb guy on tape that eats straight shots, I thought he just have to touch him once. Money in the trash there. :( I was more prepared and didn't fade him against Ivanov, I know Ivanov just don't have the tools in the stand-up and he is plain slow. He couldn't do much but be there for 25 mins because he has good chin and JDS won't risk being knocked out by some no name guy making his debut.

This here is totally different. Tai is MUCH MUCH faster than Ivanov, he is just as tough if not more, and has more cardio. The guy is young, you saw his uninspiring performance vs Andrei, but he could be a lot better in this fight, the time is on his side. JDS trains @ ATT, but he just use their guys to spar, mainly he is coached by his trainer. So ATT advantage and some new layers to his game is out of the question here. We'll see the SAME EXACT JDS that we saw vs Ivanov, and he could be even worse.

JDS relies heavily on backpedaling when on the defence. This leads him directly near or on the fence where Tai makes his hay. Junior does not use clinches or other methods to buy some time until he resets in the center of the octagon, he is just faster a lot of the times than the opponent, or scares them with power (in the past when he was younger, now people don't fear him so much) and this is largely what keeps him from getting knocked out every time he fights in my humble opinion. JDS doesn't kick, doesn't fight in the clinch or wrestle or nothing other than box. In the disntant past, his fast feet and hands helped him avoid counters and getting pushed to the fence, his sturdy chin absorbed with no problem what slipped through this defence. He is not any of these things now.

Don't bet Junior, people of sherdog (on - moneyline). Be smart, avoid this fight. Cigano is getting KTFO here.


Getting clipped and visibly little hurt by Oleynik in the same fight IS! Be warned. Hunto legendary chin is no more there. Don't bet old Hunt. I get that Overeem won last week vs some newcommer and your trust in the old HW dogs is back, but Big Pretty is not new to UFC first, and second, he trains at AKA. I don't want to bet against their guys unless I for sure know it's an easy match-up. 20u - you are crazy, you are crazy! Hunt has one way to win this, he has to knock him out, or he is losing it. He is not a consistent winner on the scorecards, he does not have the cardio to do it and he does not wrestle or fight in the clinch, he is almost pure counter puncher now, so scoring a lot of points striking is tough to do for him. He can get outworked.


Shogun is gonna get knocked the fuck out, agree.
It will be something like a 1 in a 100 if Rua wins this. Rua does not have ANY paths to victory here. He is slow, plodding, out of shape, doesn't have chin, doesn't have grappling edge, wrestling edge, he got dick here. Pedro could win every way he chooses to. Even if he want to give the victory it's gonna be difficult. He was that close to beat knock OSP out, and a lot faster than the new exciting prospect in Dom Reyes was able to do it eventuallyu. OSP fought a lot better vs Reyes, but still, Pedro was dropping him out of the gate.


He loves to grapple, even when he does not have clear edge there, he is going for it. I don't know why. His stand-up game is improving but can it be because he got a lot thicker and muscle blound all of a sudden? Guy is a fucking gorilla now. I remember how Kevin Lee said he is the strongest fighter he fought, just by pure strength. But his new found comfort in striking could be easily shaken by one good punch I think, and Tony Martin is really doing well with his striking. 50-50 in my mind I give slight advantage to Martin because I think his fight mentality is stronger and he makes good decisions infight. Tough to take a side with confidence. Somebody else that has more knowledge here could be very confident in a pick, I am not.
I thought you said your betting strategy was to bet hard on veteran dogs :)
 
I thought you said your betting strategy was to bet hard on veteran dogs :)
That dosent mean bet every single old fighter that's a dog. Pretty big difference between someone who's a savy vet and someone who just shot and got too much wear and tear. Cerrone vs Perry would be a pretty good example of betting a veteran underdog against the up and comer I suppose, while Ellenberger vs Perry was a fight when someone has clearly tipped over the veteran line to just someone who is a shadow of themselves
 
That dosent mean bet every single old fighter that's a dog. Pretty big difference between someone who's a veteran and someone who is just shot and got too much wear and tear. Cerrone vs Perry would be a pretty good example of betting a veteran underdog against the up and comer I suppose
Yea just a bit of tongue and cheek.

I do think hunt will win tho, and JDS for that matter tho he is not a dog. It was very disappointing to see Hunt throw away the olenyck fight not even trying to fight hands on the ground but Willis is a matchup that will suit him better. I am from NZ so possibly a little bias but I don't think so.
 
Yea just a bit of tongue and cheek.

I do think hunt will win tho, and JDS for that matter tho he is not a dog. It was very disappointing to see Hunt throw away the olenyck fight not even trying to fight hands on the ground but Willis is a matchup that will suit him better. I am from NZ so possibly a little bias but I don't think so.
I will probably be on both of them too. Small on Hunt. Would love to livebet JDS after round 1 instead but getting limited everywhere they got LB so don't know if that will be an option.
Although I'm not sure Willis is a better match up, Oleinik should have been a very easy matchup for Hunt. Very sloppy stand up, no defense, great BJJ but horrible wrestling, unfortunately he was able to rock Hunt with one of those winging hooks which led to him being able to get him to the ground
 
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