UFC Vegas 70: Krylov vs. Spann, Feb 25

Seems to me people are also betting Martinez because they saw Leavitt lose to Paddy and then Paddy get exposed against Gordon,so they automatically fade Jordan.Martinez is tough and will dish more damage on the feet but there's a big level difference in the grappling,Jordan can get him on the fence,chain wrestle,eventually I think he get's the sub
This feels like the line for his fight with Sayles tbh. Jordan is very limited but it's not like he's shown an awful chin or anything, so I wouldn't automatically favor strikers against him.
 
This feels like the line for his fight with Sayles tbh. Jordan is very limited but it's not like he's shown an awful chin or anything, so I wouldn't automatically favor strikers against him.
Yeah,he's tougher than he looks.And I wouldn't rull out him winning a decision either...
 
Yeah,he's tougher than he looks.And I wouldn't rull out him winning a decision either...
I hope it doesn't go that far because his fight with Ogden was a pile of shit, lol.
 
Maybe,I would bet on that if Jordan was a heavy favorite,but he's at dog odds now so...
I’d rather bet Martinez live after 1. I’ve played his 2nd and 3rd rd tko props.

I don’t really like a specialist who has been out specialed several times and gasses out from his specialty.

he’s not a very special fighter, especially when his specialty is specifically dispelled
 
I’d rather bet Martinez live after 1. I’ve played his 2nd and 3rd rd tko props.

I don’t really like a specialist who has been out specialed several times and gasses out from his specialty.

he’s not a very special fighter, especially when his specialty is specifically dispelled
You're backing a guy who nearly lost to Jacob Rosales though. I think that's important context.

Jordan can and has already gotten exposed before but I wouldn't expect a dude who cut his teeth in Fury FC to be doing that to him honestly.
 
You're backing a guy who nearly lost to Jacob Rosales though. I think that's important context.

Jordan can and has already gotten exposed before but I wouldn't expect a dude who cut his teeth in Fury FC to be doing that to him honestly.
I’ll take the risk at +750 and +1200

Rosales would beat leavitt up on the feet too
 
Current Odds My Local Casino has that I like I will never bet more then a -200

Peek-185
Johnson/Armfield-OV 1.5-145
Perez+115
Aliev-175
Deaton/Solecki-OV 1.5-155
Johnson-165
Leavitt/Martinez-OV 1.5-160
Mallot/Lainesse-UN 1.5-115
Mayes+110
Krylov-165
 
I’d rather bet Martinez live after 1. I’ve played his 2nd and 3rd rd tko props.

I don’t really like a specialist who has been out specialed several times and gasses out from his specialty.

he’s not a very special fighter, especially when his specialty is specifically dispelled
The bet could be dead after R1.I get your angle,but like others have replied,he's facing a non UFC level guy.The guys got bad TD defense,bad awerness on the ground and he's a chubby little guy,not some fast twitch type that can explode out of position.And I don't rate Jordan highly but him getting subed by Paddy(under pressure in London) ain't such a big factor for this matchup,Paddy's jits is legit.I just think and I maybe wrong,that there's value on Leavitt and if it wasn't for Paddy's bad display against Gordon he would be a moderate favorite here
 
The bet could be dead after R1.I get your angle,but like others have replied,he's facing a non UFC level guy.The guys got bad TD defense,bad awerness on the ground and he's a chubby little guy,not some fast twitch type that can explode out of position.And I don't rate Jordan highly but him getting subed by Paddy(under pressure in London) ain't such a big factor for this matchup,Paddy's jits is legit.I just think and I maybe wrong,that there's value on Leavitt and if it wasn't for Paddy's bad display against Gordon he would be a moderate favorite here

And his split with Ogden? Is leavitt ufc level? Will he be around next year?

I’m not basing my play on the pimblett fight.
Rosales is a consistent flake whenever he faces someone who's even decent on the regional scene.
He’d still piece up leavitt on the feet.
 
In a straight kickboxing match, sure.
Hey I never said there would be grappling. More so pointing out Jordan isn’t a very good striker and I’m not sure how his chin is since he hasn’t really fought any big punchers.

I think @BigSteve was right on his podcast. Either of these guys could end up looking like big value depending on how the fight goes.

jordan sub was like +200. Martinez late finish I liked way better.
 
Hey I never said there would be grappling. More so pointing out Jordan isn’t a very good striker and I’m not sure how his chin is since he hasn’t really fought any big punchers.

I highly doubt he's going to try and strike though. He didn't even try and strike with Paddy who the grappling was always going to be close with.
 
I highly doubt he's going to try and strike though. He didn't even try and strike with Paddy who the grappling was always going to be close with.
Maybe a little bit to start the bout but yea he’s going to go for tds. He probably gets them. Is he bake to lock up a sub when Martinez is trying to get back up? Possibly.

is he not able to get the sub early, gasses and gets beat up by Martinez pressure? Also possible

that’s how I see the fight going. I don’t think he subs him early and there’s a good chance
Martinez can beat him up. I probably have $60 on it.
 
I already have 1 unit on Jordan. I think this is a very winnable matchup for him. I also feel like the betting line is somewhat scewed because a, he lost to Paddy who got a bit exposed and b, because of his "gayish" antics. I think people dismisses his skillset because he's not the manly fighter type. If he looked like Andre Petroski and didnt do the split when he wins he would be a 2 to 1 favourite.
I really didn't like what i saw in terms of takedown defence from Martinez. The dude was taken down with zero resistance and gave his back immediately.
I think Jordan can hold him down and take him down over and over again for 2 straight rounds and then survive the 3rd.
 
Took at shot on Jose Johnson the other day after reading these posts, DK had him at +125 at the time.

Now at +135.
 
Took at shot on Jose Johnson the other day after reading these posts, DK had him at +125 at the time.

Now at +135.
casual bettors started taping and noticing how well Armfield did on short notice vs Onama who is in hindsight pretty much overrated.

also might be my post where I said Johnson has been taken down in total of 18 times in his two DWCS appearances. <Neil01>
 
I really don't think Armfield is very good at all. He's a one-dimensional striker at a big length disadvantage. Johnson might have poor TDD in itself, but his attacks, sweeps, and getups are all pretty good. Onama handled Armfield's grappling with ease and was able to completely manhandle him on a takedown in their second round. Johnson is absolutely a fighter who's better than his record, and I don't see how Armfield wins here. Easiest dog bet of the card.
 
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