UFC on ESPN 5 Covington vs Lawler

Kyle Stephens said:
How is Mickey Gall a -140 fav to Salim?? And he was even bigger favourite at opens. SMH. This guy is a fraud, he should've not been in the UFC. I didn't wrote my homework on Salim, from what I see losing a split to K-Taro and decision to Alves doesn't seem too bad.
<Dana05>
A lot better than being finished by Diego IMO.
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Keep in mind it's been confirmed that Gall's kidneys were shutting down before he even stepped into the cage with Diego. He spent like 8 days in the hospital after that fight. I think it's called Rabdomyalsis? The guy was a walking corpse about 2 minutes into that one.

Not saying he should be favored here necessarily but I'd say you need to put a giant asterisk next to the Diego fight. You or I might have beaten Gall that day. Guy could have died.
 
I think guys like Dustin Poirier are super high on Schnell.

After Gillian turned into Khabib in a few months, I’m gonna be extra careful betting against ATT fighters lol. I remember when Nina was considered a flakey 500 favourite but the ATT coaches were saying she is actually on world champion level.
 
Rickson said:
I think guys like Dustin Poirier are super high on Schnell.

After Gillian turned into Khabib in a few months, I’m gonna be extra careful betting against ATT fighters lol. I remember when Nina was considered a flakey 500 favourite but the ATT coaches were saying she is actually on world champion level.
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I mean I'm playing Schnell, but didn't DP say that Naurdiev was a top 15 talent like 2 weeks ago?
 
How do you see Schnell winning tho? Have a hard time seeing him outstrike Espinosa. Not so sure Schnell can takedown Espinosa either..
 
Gugabe said:
I mean I'm playing Schnell, but didn't DP say that Naurdiev was a top 15 talent like 2 weeks ago?
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He might be. Losing to Rencountre is no shame at this stage of his career. Naurdiev is still pretty raw but he has some solid skills & he is very calm in the cage. That was too much too soon.
 
conmemay said:
How do you see Schnell winning tho? Have a hard time seeing him outstrike Espinosa. Not so sure Schnell can takedown Espinosa either..
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Feel like he outstrikes Espinosa fairly easily. Not like Espinosa's ultra-elite there, Shelton had plenty of success when he felt like actually throwing strikes.
 
Really liking Clay at +155...he’s just going to pressure against the fence and not get subbed and win a dec. Jim doesn’t have much to offer here

Someone talk me out of it
 
Gugabe said:
Feel like he outstrikes Espinosa fairly easily. Not like Espinosa's ultra-elite there, Shelton had plenty of success when he felt like actually throwing strikes.
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Cant remember it very clearly but my memory of that fight was Espinosa winning it til he slowed down in the third. Schnell's striking is okay, not great imo; and then his chin might still be cracked if Espinosa lands a solid one.
 
conmemay said:
Cant remember it very clearly but my memory of that fight was Espinosa winning it til he slowed down in the third. Schnell's striking is okay, not great imo; and then his chin might still be cracked if Espinosa lands a solid one.
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Shelton had success whenever he actually did anything, just rarely deigned to sully himself with doing things.
 
Naterade said:
Really liking Clay at +155...he’s just going to pressure against the fence and not get subbed and win a dec. Jim doesn’t have much to offer here

Someone talk me out of it
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Clay will bounce around a lot and probably throw more volume than Miller. Miller is super crafty with his grappling, but I tend to doubt he can get Guida down. I like the value on Guida too, I think him winning a decision is the most likely outcome. My concern would be that he overrates his own grappling and will initiate grappling sequences (or at least not actively avoid them) with guys who are better grapplers than he is (see the Oliveira fight as a prime example). If he does that here, Miller could catch a sub for sure.

Initial lean would be to split some $ between Guida's ML and dec line and then maybe see about hedging with Miller's sub line.
 
Gugabe said:
Guys are usually chinny earlier into fights, in my experience. Like it's definitely possible he gets KO'd, but Espinosa hasn't really been a KO machine and Schnell should generally be better than him otherwise.



Feel like Joaquim's worth a shot after the amount of difficulty that Nasrat had with Gouti. Feel like we get a close swangfest out of that one.
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I can understand silva as a stab at value but here was my post tape perspective

Nasrat should outvolume silva, Nasrat in his last couple fights really only showed weakness/ willingness to let himless get chased by gouti but Silva seems very content to stand and do nothing( pinchel) or stand and trade(Gordon) so i dont think we see a similar scenario pan out here

Nas is also at the age where improving is still to be expected but that isn’t something to bank on i know

Tldr if Nasrat loses its 90% of the time by KO here
Cap him at -250 ish
 
Naterade said:
Really liking Clay at +155...he’s just going to pressure against the fence and not get subbed and win a dec. Jim doesn’t have much to offer here

Someone talk me out of it
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he lost a round to bj penn in 2019

edit: just watched it again. he actually lost the first 8 minutes.
 
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Netto BJJ is just so hitable, he has no striking defence at all, Jaret Gordan was landing at will early and if he had a little more power or even just more of a finishing instinct he could have had him out of there at a few points early.

Looks like his cardio has actually improved though, he was breathing really heavy after round 2 but still keep a high pace and high out put in the third.

Saying that Gordan is small for the division, Nasrat will be the bigger fighter, height and reach are in his favour and he has power in his strikes too, generally a finisher also. Netto BJJ has that 'let's bang' in him, I think he loses that game to Nasrat who just has the cleaner more powerful more accurate and higher volume striking.

Nasrat cuts off the cage very well, closed the distance and keeps the pressure on. Netto BJJ has shown a decent kicking game, going to the body and legs but I think Nasrat will be able to shut that down and back him to the cage.

We might see a bit of a battle for the centre of the Octagon l which could be dangerous for both guys, each has shown to have stopping power but I would favour Nasrat again to come out on top just by having the better defence and crisper strikes.
 
Austisthunder said:
I can understand silva as a stab at value but here was my post tape perspective

Nasrat should outvolume silva, Nasrat in his last couple fights really only showed weakness/ willingness to let himless get chased by gouti but Silva seems very content to stand and do nothing( pinchel) or stand and trade(Gordon) so i dont think we see a similar scenario pan out here

Nas is also at the age where improving is still to be expected but that isn’t something to bank on i know

Tldr if Nasrat loses its 90% of the time by KO here
Cap him at -250 ish
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Nasrat broke his hand in the 1st vs Gouti too.
 
Invictis said:
Initial leans are Latifi, Guida, and Colby.

I think Guida hasn't declined nearly as much as Jim has. He should be able to take him down with relative ease and win a decision.

By the time they fight I feel like it'll be a pick'em
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Jim looked great in his last fight and apparently he has got all of his medical issues under control too, which seems likely became he looked in the best shape I've seen him in in a while in his last fight
 
I read that Miller has declined more than Guida and I genuinely don’t understand it.

He fought top 15 fighters only for a while. Dustin, Pettis, Trinaldo, Hooker, Charles. They would have all mopped the floor with Guida who has fought guys like Lauzon, Koch & BJ. Only legit opponent recently was Charles and he got finished by him just like Jim. Shit, at least Jim got rear naked choked. Guida ran into a guillotine and tapped immediately lol.

I see Jim Miller as the clearly more skilled fighter. Better technique for sure. Clay relied on his toughness & pace throughout his whole career and those attributes diminish first with age. You saw him swing wild hooks and miss like a retard against BJ. He couldn’t even get a half dead BJ to the ground.

Jim Miller beat 2 mediocre fighters but he ran through them. His current resume is better than Guida‘s win over BJ imo.

I saw some dude on Twitter say Guida can do whatever he wants to Jim standing and I thought he was trolling ? lol. Guida‘s path to victory is to get takedowns imo. He should lose the striking. Miller can win this standing or on the ground.
 
Jim Miller should be the better fighter in round 1, but if he doesnt get Guida out of there early, I wouldn't be shocked to see Guida take rounds 2 and 3 and win a close decision, even in Jersey.

I will probably look to live bet Guida after round 1.

Even with his lymes under control, Miller is still likely affected by it atleast a bit, and he has a history of slowing down in the
2nd half of fights. Guida is on a clear decline, but I still think he will be able to outpace Miller late into the fight.
 
Is The” Stun Gun “the best person Covington has fought?

Upon reflection Colby seems to have had possibly the easiest path to titletown in recent memory

Other contenders include Stylebender and Volkanovski
 
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