Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jul 15, 2019.
I'm on Oezdemir here. Great odds as well, even better that last time before Latifi pulled out with back problems.
It's weird that Latifi is the favourite now, I really liked him as a dog
How is Mickey Gall a -140 fav to Salim?? And he was even bigger favourite at opens. SMH. This guy is a fraud, he should've not been in the UFC. I didn't wrote my homework on Salim, from what I see losing a split to K-Taro and decision to Alves doesn't seem too bad.
A lot better than being finished by Diego IMO.
I like volkan too. Robbie could be a good play depending on odds. I really think he was juicing for the askren fight as he looked huge and strong af, veins popping and shit. If we get that same rob, I think he likely tko's colby. Lawler has got very good tdd and Is the better, much more powerful striker. The next 3 main card fights are very competitive off the top of my head, dogs could be good plays.
Volkan/Latifi being moved to the Uruguay card
Auto faded Mickey Gall with a + line. Salim is meh. Nothing special but he is fighting a fraud. The line might flip.
Science Lawler at +200 is must take imo
Nasrat -250 is no value but absent a meme ko he wins imo
Bit of devils advocate and coming from someone betting Salim but judging Gall too harshly for his last fight where his kidneys started failing midfight against what is actually a reasonably challenging style match would be a mistake.
I like ATT special water Lawler at +200. Especially with his strength he showed against Asskren.
I still think Covington is underrated and I love his fighting style but Lawler is about to have a TRTvitor esque run. And it’s too perfect for the interim title he won to be absolutely meaningless.
On ozedimir as well, esp at + odds. He will be more active than Latifi with equivalent boop power.
Something I can't quite put my finger on in that Lawler-Askren fight. It looked like Robbie...gave up.... He had Askren dead and when he came alive again it seemed to beat Lawler mentally. Just something I picked up on and that's how I see it. I'm probably reading the tea leaves but I don't trust him and won't bet him, even at +200.
Oezdemir and Latifi out
He used an extraordinary amount of energy trying to finish Askren. I'll have to watch the fight again to see if he gave up though.
They have been moved to the card the week after
Yeah, 'gave up' is wrong. Like he settled for whatever happens next, happens. Win or lose. I just didn't like the energy he was giving off. All this sounds stupid though, I'll admit. I'm just passing though (or tilt chasing on Covington if the night is going poorly ).
Initial leans are Latifi, Guida, and Colby.
I think Guida hasn't declined nearly as much as Jim has. He should be able to take him down with relative ease and win a decision.
By the time they fight I feel like it'll be a pick'em
The Guida who was having trouble with a totally washed Penn?
Jim actually looked decent last time out,
I want to bet jim but im trying to be more prudent so its a pass for me unless we get close to evens
He lost 1 round to him.
Guida completely decimated Lauzon, who Miller barely won a split decision over.
I've been betting on Miller for a while, his victory at UFC 228 was huge for me. But they're both at the tail end of their careers, and Guida is still in great shape, and will grind out a win.
Miller Vs Guida feels like the type of match up where at this stage of their careers it should be a rubber match after first fighting on a "Fight For the Troops" 2009 era card and an initial rematch back in 2014-16.
Can't believe this is a fight that's never happened before. At this stage of their careers I've no idea how to call it, either.
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