UFC on ESPN 5 Covington vs Lawler

[Oblivian]

As long as Giles plays it fairly safe, he should win every round vs. Meer and possibly finish him late.

 

[BigNick100]

He beat a guy world champ grappler guy in Neto who he survived on the ground with.

And trying to jab your way to a win sp vs ortho is hard so no surprises there. He still outlanded Cummings who really didn't look bad at all and was arguably losing till the last minute overhand counter that landed clean.

Saying Giles might have a terrible ground game is just shows you've probably only watched one fight at best in his career when we saw him hit multiple TDs in his debut and grapple with a guy like Neto.

I don't understand your reply here.

Your replying to him saying 'Giles might have a terrible ground game' (which he might from a jits point of view) then saying Giles hit multiple td's in his debut against a can in James Bochnovic who doesn't belong in the UFC and then saying he grappled with guys like Neto, who took him down easily in round 1 and full mounted him with Giles not showing any get ups and also getting taken down in round 3 by a gassed Neto doesn't have any counter argument to it. Giles getting full mounted and not getting subbed show he can defend and survive subs ya and isn't a total fish out of water on his back, that's it really. It was still not a good look how he wasn't showing much get ups and getting full mounted.

Yea got up under a gassed Neto in round 3 but then he shouldn't have even been taken down by a gassed Neto that round and Neto was too gassed to hold him down at that point.

Still got subbed by Zak the next fight after that after it.

Jordan and his top notch wrestling/ground talk once again lol

 

[Jordan3399]

I don't understand your reply here.

Your replying to him saying 'Giles might have a terrible ground game' (which he might from a jits point of view) then saying Giles hit multiple td's in his debut against a can in James Bochnovic who doesn't belong in the UFC and then saying he grappled with guys like Neto, who took him down easily in round 1 and full mounted him with Giles not showing any get ups and also getting taken down in round 3 by a gassed Neto doesn't have any counter argument to it. Giles getting full mounted and not getting subbed show he can defend and survive subs ya and isn't a total fish out of water on his back, that's it really. It was still not a good look how he wasn't showing much get ups and getting full mounted.

Yea got up under a gassed Neto in round 3 but then he shouldn't have even been taken down by a gassed Neto that round and Neto was too gassed to hold him down at that point.

Still got subbed by Zak the next fight after that after it.

Jordan and his top notch wrestling/ground talk once again lol

You can see clearly that his ground game isn't terrible if you've seen his fights, not great but the guys had a lot of grappling in his fights to look at and if it was terrible he'd of been subbed fairly easily by someone like Neto. Getting mounted isn't a good look sure, but Neto would also probably do the same or worse to GM3 whose positional grappling is a mess.

Cummings was a club and sub and Cummings has very solid BJJ anyway. He still stuffed Cummings attempts to take him down before that and I liked that Giles while rocked still fought hard to escape a locked in guillotine and didn't just tap quickly like most would. Not to mention trying to draw conclusions on Giles grappling based solely on that fight is just poor capping when its the most irrelevant of all his UFC fights to study.

 

[Oblivian]

I've been watching Giles for a while now as he was a fixture on AXS. A lot of his fights involved grappling. I remember mistakenly thinking he was from a wrestling background. He actually subbed Brendan Allen who just got a contract on the Contender series. His top game has always looked pretty solid to me. On bottom though, I think he's uncomfortable.

 

[ApplesVild]

He beat a guy world champ grappler guy in Neto who he survived on the ground with.

And trying to jab your way to a win sp vs ortho is hard so no surprises there. He still outlanded Cummings who really didn't look bad at all and was arguably losing till the last minute overhand counter that landed clean.

Saying Giles might have a terrible ground game is just shows you've probably only watched one fight at best in his career when we saw him hit multiple TDs in his debut and grapple with a guy like Neto.

I agree on Hikes ground game it doesn't look bad to me, take down defence isn't terrible either. He can maintain control on the ground and do damage from the top he has some subs on his record but I don't think he will be too much of a sub thread to GM3, but he could be a ground and pound threat. That first round against Neto he was taken down and controlled very easily though, if GM3 can get him to the mat he could have similar results.

Big question for me is how much has Giles been training and how dedicated is he. I didn't see anything new from him in the Cummins fight, he looked okay at points but there was nothing there that stood out. Good hands, accurate strikes and he has some power but he's basic.

Can't really get a read on either guy here

 

[BigNick100]

You can see clearly that his ground game isn't terrible if you've seen his fights, not great but the guys had a lot of grappling in his fights to look at and if it was terrible he'd of been subbed fairly easily by someone like Neto. Getting mounted isn't a good look sure, but Neto would also probably do the same or worse to GM3 whose positional grappling is a mess.

Cummings was a club and sub and Cummings has very solid BJJ anyway. He still stuffed Cummings attempts to take him down before that and I liked that Giles while rocked still fought hard to escape a locked in guillotine and didn't just tap quickly like most would. Not to mention trying to draw conclusions on Giles grappling based solely on that fight is just poor capping when its the most irrelevant of all his UFC fights to study.

It's not poor but lets not act like it great like you are making it out to seem or questioning someone because Giles has shown he can be been put in very bad spots that he should have never been in. Or getting taken down by a gassed Neto. Ya that Zak fight he was stunned and of course that contributed to him getting subbed, but the he has been put in some bad spots that can't be ignored. Who is drawing conclusions to just that one fight? haha, I love how you throw in "is just poor capping" Always trying to come across as a know it all.

anyone listening to you talk about wrestling is poor capping

 

[Jordan3399]

I agree on Hikes ground game it doesn't look bad to me, take down defence isn't terrible either. He can maintain control on the ground and do damage from the top he has some subs on his record but I don't think he will be too much of a sub thread to GM3, but he could be a ground and pound threat. That first round against Neto he was taken down and controlled very easily though, if GM3 can get him to the mat he could have similar results.

Big question for me is how much has Giles been training and how dedicated is he. I didn't see anything new from him in the Cummins fight, he looked okay at points but there was nothing there that stood out. Good hands, accurate strikes and he has some power but he's basic.

Can't really get a read on either guy here

One thing I like a lot is that while Neto got control time over Giles he's a much better grappler than GM3 and has way better positional grappling. Neto would have controlled someone like Holland fine on the ground while GM3 let it become a mess of scrambles and lost a dec as a result because he couldn't maintain position.

GM3 is a threat but as long as Giles fights like normal, very conservative and safe he should be able to outstrike GM3 to a dec or late finish comfortably.

 

[Jordan3399]

It's not poor but lets not act like it great like you are making it out to seem or questioning someone because Giles has shown he can be been put in very bad spots that he should have never been in. Or getting taken down by a gassed Neto. Ya that Zak fight he was stunned and of course that contributed to him getting subbed, but the he has been put in some bad spots that can't be ignored. Who is drawing conclusions to just that one fight? haha, I love how you throw in "is just poor capping" Always trying to come across as a know it all.

anyone listening to you talk about wrestling is poor capping

I said poor capping and mentioned one fight cause that's what the original post I replied to was doing. Merely commenting on the limited grappling shown in Giles latest fight rather taping any others which had way more grappling and would have let him draw a clear conclusion and not left him questioning if Giles had terrible grappling which was completely off.

 

[ApplesVild]

One thing I like a lot is that while Neto got control time over Giles he's a much better grappler than GM3 and has way better positional grappling. Neto would have controlled someone like Holland fine on the ground while GM3 let it become a mess of scrambles and lost a dec as a result because he couldn't maintain position.

GM3 is a threat but as long as Giles fights like normal, very conservative and safe he should be able to outstrike GM3 to a dec or late finish comfortably.

I don't know about Neto controlling Holland, Holland is slippery and fuck and just seems to have a knack for escaping positions and taking minimum damage while he's in them, he's under rated because he's a weird goofy fucker in my opponion.

Giles will want it standing, and probably land shots but GM3's chin is sturdy. If GM3 can get it to the mat I think he has a good chance of taking the round from that point, but he also gasses so if Giles can stuff takedowns late and make GM3 stroke he should box him up

 

[Broe.]

He beat a world champ grappler guy in Neto who he survived on the ground with.

And trying to jab your way to a win sp vs ortho is hard so no surprises there. He still outlanded Cummings who really didn't look bad at all and was arguably losing till the last minute overhand counter that landed clean.

Saying Giles might have a terrible ground game just shows you've probably only watched one fight at best in his career when we saw him hit multiple TDs in his debut and grapple with a guy like Neto.

I said "might", furthermore I don't know what takedowns have to do with groundgame. And also I said he only has a jab, I have no idea what that has to do with this : "And trying to jab your way to a win sp vs ortho is hard so no surprises there. He still outlanded Cummings who really didn't look bad at all and was arguably losing till the last minute overhand counter that landed clean." ??????

 

[Jordan3399]

I said "might", furthermore I don't know what takedowns have to do with groundgame. And also I said he only has a jab, I have no idea what that has to do with this : "And trying to jab your way to a win sp vs ortho is hard so no surprises there. He still outlanded Cummings who really didn't look bad at all and was arguably losing till the last minute overhand counter that landed clean." ??????

Cause you said he only has a jab and looked disappointing vs Cummings yet he was outstriking him with it in an unfavourable style match up. The lead hand is much harder to use in an open stance match up so someone who likes to use his jab a lot like Giles would naturally find it harder but instead he was busting him up.

You said 'might' like it was even an option, its clearly not and obvious if you taped any further back than one fight.
Also wrestling is a huge factor in grappling and a guys ground game and needless to say takedowns are a significant part of wrestling.

 

[Oblivian]

I don't know about Neto controlling Holland, Holland is slippery and fuck and just seems to have a knack for escaping positions and taking minimum damage while he's in them, he's under rated because he's a weird goofy fucker in my opponion.

Giles will want it standing, and probably land shots but GM3's chin is sturdy. If GM3 can get it to the mat I think he has a good chance of taking the round from that point, but he also gasses so if Giles can stuff takedowns late and make GM3 stroke he should box him up

I think Giles will also do a lot of work against the fence. I think he's fine on top in this matchup, but he'd need to be careful with his neck going for a takedown.

 

[Deleted member 560591]

I want to bet Stosic but I’m afraid of his low output because he is scared of gassing out by throwing 2 punches

 

[Bastaille]

I want to bet Stosic but I’m afraid of his low output because he is scared of gassing out by throwing 2 punches

Exactly my thoughts on this fight.

 

[piglord]

Yeah. Don't particularly want to play Stosic but IMO you could make an argument for -300 on what they've actually shown.

"what they've actually shown" is key here in my opinion.

kennedy always absorbs strikes from much smaller opponents - despite being 6'5 with a 83-inch reach, the guy does not manage distance well at all. i get the feeling he started training martial arts later in life because he's quite raw for a 27 year old.

however, he is athletic and trains at a great gym with an intelligent head coach. if he uses his reach well and throws more volume than stosic, he can win this fight despite being the less technical striker.

i really wanted to bet stosic at -130 or so but might regrettably have to pass. still, if a tonne of cash comes in on kennedy after the size mismatch at the face offs, i may reconsider.

 

[Oblivian]

I've also noticed that guys who are tentative can be even more tentative against a lanky opponent where range can seem tricky.

 

[BatBoyJG]

Cause you said he only has a jab and looked disappointing vs Cummings yet he was outstriking him with it in an unfavourable style match up. The lead hand is much harder to use in an open stance match up so someone who likes to use his jab a lot like Giles would naturally find it harder but instead he was busting him up.

You said 'might' like it was even an option, its clearly not and obvious if you taped any further back than one fight.
Also wrestling is a huge factor in grappling and a guys ground game and needless to say takedowns are a significant part of wrestling.

Giles was on his way to losing that fight 30-27. I think you are misremembering how that fight went. Gerald also fights in the southpaw stance quite often so Giles could very well have the same issue he did in his last fight.

That being said I see Giles as a pretty smart fighter overall. I see him wearing Gerald out and running away with the fight. Should have bet him at -150, the way the price is trending I’ll be staying away.

 

[Monster Meat]

I dunno if I’m buying granger

Seems like her only path to victory is the submission and I’m not sold on her jiu jitsu being that good for +100

She hit two standing guillotines in her last three fights. She arnbarred Jammie colleen who is pretty clueless on the ground

For anyone in NJ you can get goldy at -150 on bet stars and granger is +158 on pointsbet nice little arb.

 

[ApplesVild]

I want to bet Stosic but I’m afraid of his low output because he is scared of gassing out by throwing 2 punches

Kennedy is fairly low out put too, and doesn't seem to have much power for his size. I think it probably goes to a fairly uneventful decision

 

[Jordan3399]

Giles was on his way to losing that fight 30-27. I think you are misremembering how that fight went. Gerald also fights in the southpaw stance quite often so Giles could very well have the same issue he did in his last fight.

That being said I see Giles as a pretty smart fighter overall. I see him wearing Gerald out and running away with the fight. Should have bet him at -150, the way the price is trending I’ll be staying away.

Only one judge had Cummings up 20-18 and I'm really surprised all gave him the first. Cummings was swinging at air most of the fight and in the first 10 minutes was credited with just 2 significant strikes to the head, both in the second round. The third Cummings landed more as he changed his tactic to letting Giles land big shots on him then winging counters, worked in the end because he caught Giles with a huge shot but it was losing him the round until then and probably a rightfully very close dec.

Also Giles didn't really struggle too much last fight with Cummings being southpaw, he had Cummings swinging at air for the most part and made Cummings reliant on his chin to win, and Cummings is a slicker boxer than GM3 by quite a bit and until the third he was only able to land body and leg strikes with any real success.