UFC on ESPN+ 30: Kattar v Ige

So I watched Jack Shore's opponent and... Wow. He's awful. Guy spent two full rounds surviving subs and being beat on until his opponent gassed and he was able to sneak a TKO from the top. There's a pretty clear path to victory for Jack Shore and it involves taking his opponent down and wailing on him. Obviously Jack Shore by Sub at 2.0 is extremely steep when the guy has a number of submissions on his record (he could GNP his opponent), and Jack Shore by Sub in Round 1 isn't that much better at 3.5. But since his opponent has some semblance of submission defence and doesn't give up easily, just anyone else thing there's value in Jack Shore's Round 3 lines? He's finished his last three fights in Round 3, his KO/TKO Round 3 line is at a steep 23.0 (+2200), and even his Sub Round 3 line is at a somewhat reasonable 10.0 (+900)
 
mkess101 said:
Also playing Michalidis/Bukauskus u2.0. These two seem like hyper-aggressive finishers from the 4 total fights I watched of them (which is the most of any fight on the card, and with plenty of the fights the number is zero LOL). I have a hard time seeing this one go on for more than 10 minutes.
Click to expand...
Are they really hyper-aggressive finishers? I feel they both like moving in and out, and neither of them mind moving backwards or being on the outside. I'm actually tempted to play the over or starts round 3, but them both having been KOed has me hesitating. Also, I would favour Michalidis straight if he wasn't so damned undersized...
 
Very interesting fights all around.
Im small on stamman dec, mccann ml, u2. 5 for gordon v fish, phillips rd 1 and fishgold tko props (hedging with gordon ml and chimaev ml, obviously). Have a kattar,razak, shore parlay as well.
 
BaruchSpinoza said:
Are they really hyper-aggressive finishers? I feel they both like moving in and out, and neither of them mind moving backwards or being on the outside. I'm actually tempted to play the over or starts round 3, but them both having been KOed has me hesitating. Also, I would favour Michalidis straight if he wasn't so damned undersized...
Click to expand...
Lmfao Michalaidis wasn't KO'd, he was gassed. Which actually bodes really badly for him since his opponent was only KO'd at MW (at 6'3") and this is Light Heavyweight

Buaskas is really dumb, is an MMA version of Neil from The Inbetweeners (he's Lithuanian, his name sounds Russian, but this dude could not be more English), and can tell I'm absolutely going to loathe hearing him talk every time post-fight BUT he actually has pretty good stamina, not bad kickboxing and is capable of getting off his back when he gets put down there (time and time again, every single fight). Part of the reason for that is that he doesn't throw much power behind his shots, sticks and moves with his jab, and only opens up his combinations when he can see his opponent is starting to tire. This is kind of the worst possible thing for Michalaidis, who throws wild haymakers, wrestles through sheer physicality and has gassed before against a fellow kickboxer who was also gassing. Maybe the fact he's fighting at 205 instead of his usual 185 helps his cardio, but I somewhat doubt it

I placed a $50 bonus bet on Michalaidis at 2.7 before I started reading deeper into it and honestly I regret it already, this one has all the makings of a round three finish for Buaskas
 
GoldenWolf87 said:
Have the face offs or weigh ins happened yet today?
Click to expand...
Yeah
BaruchSpinoza said:
I've heard people say Mounir Lazzez lives up to his nickname "The Sniper" with a long and rangy style. But from what I've seen Mounir isn't really that great at using his reach to keep guys at distance, for example the rather short Dmitrijs Homjakovs (supposedly 5'8", 173 cm) seemed to have no real trouble reaching him. That does not bode well against Abdul Razak Alhassan who obviously doesn't have to connect very many times to flip the switch. Everything points towards a quick KO for Abdul Razak Alhassan being the most likely outcome, but I've got to put a couple of dimes on Mounir T/KO R1 at +1400. He is at least big, explosive and unpredictable, throw a guy like that in a firefight and anything can happen...
Click to expand...

Watching that dmitrijis fight right now. The smaller dmitir was able to bully mounir out of clinch situations which leads me to believe Mounir isn't really strong at all, or doesn't have a good grasp of clinch tactics for positional control.
 
Jack Shore jumped to -715 on BetRivers

He really expected to just murder this Arron Philips guy?
 
I want to take Elliot just bc this is a good matchup for him and he’s the better fighter but he’s been so disappointing lately and has lost in Michael Johnson ways. I’d like to think he won’t lose a 4th straight and the line is right so may take him anyway bc of that and well Because it’s Wednesday night and what the hell else am I doing
 
Monster Meat said:
at this point might was well take him inside
Click to expand...

I won’t be making bets tonight, might do some little having fun with live. I don’t know like, any of the matchups both fighters well enough to feel I’d be doing anymore than guessing
 
HockeyBjj said:
I won’t be making bets tonight, might do some little having fun with live. I don’t know like, any of the matchups both fighters well enough to feel I’d be doing anymore than guessing
Click to expand...

yea I don’t know most either but I do feel good about Alhassan inside at -152 and although it should be a close fight rivera by dec +120 and of course the over 2.5 in that fight. It should be a 3 round kickboxing match.
 
My picks for the full card are below:

Those in green I have a high degree of confidence in and would encourage others to bet on these fighters. Those in orange I have a high enough degree of confidence in to wager my own money, but not enough confidence to outright recommend others wager their money on these picks. Those in blue I believe are toss ups and while I believe the outcome I listed is the most likely; I personally am not confident enough to wager money on these fights.

Aaron Phillips(+550)/Jack Shore(-750): Shore Via Submission

Liana Lojau (+160)/Diana Belbita (-185): Belbita Via Decision

Jared Gordon (-143)/Chris Fishgold (+123): Fishgold Via TKO

Modestas Bukauskas (-170)/Andreas Michailidis (+145): Bukauskas Via TKO

Lerone Murphy (+140)/Ricardo Ramos (-170): Murphy Via TKO

John Phillips (+280)/ Khamzat Chimaev (-340): Chimaev Via Submission/TKO

Abdul Razak Alhassan (-325)/Mounir Lazzez (+275): Alhassan Via TKO

Tailia Santos (+125)/Molly McCann (-145): McCann Via Decision

Jimmie Rivera (-132)/Cody Stamman (+112): Stamman Via Decision

Tim Elliott (-132)/Ryan Benoit (+112): Elliot Via Decision

Dan Ige (+240)/Calvin Kattar (-290): Ige Via Decision
 
Lets go

AW7AdqW.png
 
Tirimasuperman said:
Lmfao Michalaidis wasn't KO'd, he was gassed. Which actually bodes really badly for him since his opponent was only KO'd at MW (at 6'3") and this is Light Heavyweight

Buaskas is really dumb, is an MMA version of Neil from The Inbetweeners (he's Lithuanian, his name sounds Russian, but this dude could not be more English), and can tell I'm absolutely going to loathe hearing him talk every time post-fight BUT he actually has pretty good stamina, not bad kickboxing and is capable of getting off his back when he gets put down there (time and time again, every single fight). Part of the reason for that is that he doesn't throw much power behind his shots, sticks and moves with his jab, and only opens up his combinations when he can see his opponent is starting to tire. This is kind of the worst possible thing for Michalaidis, who throws wild haymakers, wrestles through sheer physicality and has gassed before against a fellow kickboxer who was also gassing. Maybe the fact he's fighting at 205 instead of his usual 185 helps his cardio, but I somewhat doubt it

I placed a $50 bonus bet on Michalaidis at 2.7 before I started reading deeper into it and honestly I regret it already, this one has all the makings of a round three finish for Buaskas
Click to expand...

Thanks for the input!

Was Michalaidis gassed in his KO loss against Butcher as well? I haven't been able to find that fight...

I think I will be willing to take a stab at starts R3. Hopefully Michalaidis comes out looking to pace himself and doesn't look to finish or be finished. By the way, Buaskas R3 is +1600 on bet365, I'm definitely putting a sprinkle on that!
 
mkess101 said:
Yep, but he's gonna eat straight shots down the pipe for doing so imo. He only moves his head off the center line a slight amount when he throws them from what I've seen. The target will be there for Kattar unless Ige's timing is basically perfect.
Click to expand...

Kattar might have the cleanest straight 1-2 in the game. I love how there is no loop to his punches. He throws fast and straight punches down the pipe - beautiful.
 
Tirimasuperman said:
So I watched Jack Shore's opponent and... Wow. He's awful. Guy spent two full rounds surviving subs and being beat on until his opponent gassed and he was able to sneak a TKO from the top. There's a pretty clear path to victory for Jack Shore and it involves taking his opponent down and wailing on him. Obviously Jack Shore by Sub at 2.0 is extremely steep when the guy has a number of submissions on his record (he could GNP his opponent), and Jack Shore by Sub in Round 1 isn't that much better at 3.5. But since his opponent has some semblance of submission defence and doesn't give up easily, just anyone else thing there's value in Jack Shore's Round 3 lines? He's finished his last three fights in Round 3, his KO/TKO Round 3 line is at a steep 23.0 (+2200), and even his Sub Round 3 line is at a somewhat reasonable 10.0 (+900)
Click to expand...
I like Shore 3rd round too. He seems like a methodical fighter that will just wear the other guy down eventually. I think TKO might be a little more likely as well. For what it's worth, Phillips says he's a BJJ black belt.
 
BaruchSpinoza said:
Are they really hyper-aggressive finishers? I feel they both like moving in and out, and neither of them mind moving backwards or being on the outside. I'm actually tempted to play the over or starts round 3, but them both having been KOed has me hesitating. Also, I would favour Michalidis straight if he wasn't so damned undersized...
Click to expand...
Yup and so is Michalidis. I would love to see a Greek fighter doing it for Greece has being a while since we havent seen greek fighters.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,237,038
Messages
55,463,264
Members
174,786
Latest member
JoyceOuthw

Share this page

Back
Top