UFC on ESPN+ 30: Kattar v Ige

Sadistics said:
Reminder that this is a Wednesday card.

Biggest bet so far is Gordon, he's gonna drown Fishgold
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What odds did you get and how many units staked? I know you usually get absurd early lines so I want to compare with current lines.
 
Broe. said:
Yeah Fishgold could catch him in the 1sy round though. Fiahgold is 1st round or bust.
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Yeah I agree. I don't see Fish getting many subs at this level, and he only has 2 KOs in 22 fights, the last being in 2016 vs a 0-2 guy. Rd1 or bust at near evens is a pretty good deal.
 
Sadistics said:
Yeah I agree. I don't see Fish getting many subs at this level, and he only has 2 KOs in 22 fights, the last being in 2016 vs a 0-2 guy. Rd1 or bust at near evens is a pretty good deal.
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Sounds really good and an ez hedge if wanted.
 
Sadistics said:
Yeah I agree. I don't see Fish getting many subs at this level, and he only has 2 KOs in 22 fights, the last being in 2016 vs a 0-2 guy. Rd1 or bust at near evens is a pretty good deal.
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Ah shit, I put 1u on fishgold now I hear ur prediction and have regret
 
i think this is the easiest card to bet on -- or at least the one i'm most confident betting on.

Kattar over Ige at -280 seems like easy money.
Frankie vs Munhoz.. Frankie will be winning until he gets clipped and finished, liking munhoz at 230
Rodriguez over Esparza.. I also see this with one outcome -- Rodriguez outclassing Esparza in the striking and avoiding the TD for the most part for a UD. -160 is great odds.

Of course, the times where I feel the most confident are the ones I get the most wrong. Please tell me why i'm wrong!
 
Sadistics said:
Hey I'm wrong all the time, don't let me sway you too much. What has you liking Fishgold?
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I feel like he’s been in there with some killers and held his own in their worlds before losing, Kattar in the boxing and Makwhan in the grappling, plus Gordon moving down makes me wonder if his chin holds up. My guess is Fishgold wins first two rounds and wins a 29-28
 
loller90278 said:
i think this is the easiest card to bet on -- or at least the one i'm most confident betting on.

Kattar over Ige at -280 seems like easy money.
Frankie vs Munhoz.. Frankie will be winning until he gets clipped and finished, liking munhoz at 230
Rodriguez over Esparza.. I also see this with one outcome -- Rodriguez outclassing Esparza in the striking and avoiding the TD for the most part for a UD. -160 is great odds.

Of course, the times where I feel the most confident are the ones I get the most wrong. Please tell me why i'm wrong!
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It's hard to stomach taking Kattar when knowing a lot of people got him at -140 odds, one of most insane opening lines I've seen this year.
 
'Suga Daddy' said:
I feel like he’s been in there with some killers and held his own in their worlds before losing, Kattar in the boxing and Makwhan in the grappling, plus Gordon moving down makes me wonder if his chin holds up. My guess is Fishgold wins first two rounds and wins a 29-28
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That's fair, but the big takeaway is he's winning til he's not, and it's not a coincidence. It looked like even Teymur was gonna outcardio him near the end of rd1.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
It's hard to stomach taking Kattar when knowing a lot of people got him at -140 odds, one of most insane opening lines I've seen this year.
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Kattar is a lock. He is on another level compared to someone like Ige
 
BigSteve said:
Kattar is a lock. He is on another level compared to someone like Ige
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I didn't say he isn't the justified big favorite or anything, but I'm not betting him at -300 when people got him at -140, that's all. Unfortunately he didn't show up in my bookie fast enough so it's a pass for me unless there's a good prop available.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
I didn't say he isn't the justified big favorite or anything, but I'm not betting him at -300 when people got him at -140, that's all. Unfortunately he didn't show up in my bookie fast enough so it's a pass for me unless there's a good prop available.
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ah ye no dramas, opened up at 1.30 on mine. Il take that. More importantly il take the Ko line when it openes
 
I put 2u on Elliot against Beniot, not his odds improve and its almost a pick em? What am i missing, Beniot always struggled with wrestlers. Surley the public dosent think Elliot is that shot
 
Man there's a prop I love here...

Playing Edgar dec +285. Soooo much more value than his ML at +180 imo.

Munhoz has a granite chin, big power, and one of the best guillotines in the UFC (Ortega, Hermannson maybe too?). But he doesn't cut off the cage well and his footwork is so-so. He's terrific against guys who will stand in the pocket and bang, but overall as a striker he's a poor man's Lineker imo.

On the flipside, Frankie is nearing the end of the road for sure. Shopworn, chin likely gone. BUT...he knows what he is and he's a smart vet that knows his only path to victory. He's not likely at all to mess around in the pocket with Munhoz. The guillotine is a concern if Frankie does wrestle, but in 30+ pro fights Frankie has never been subbed. He knows what he's doing on the mat. I don't see Frankie taking chances here, he's got nothing left to prove and doesn't desperately need to try to finish or put on some crazy exciting fight. I see him bouncing around throwing punches from outside the pocket as usual, simply trying to outwork and outpoint Pedro. Possibly mixing in the occasional TD late in rounds to seal them.

Now, of course it only take one shot to end Frankie's night. And it's very possible that happens. But at +285 I really love the value on Frankie's dec line.
 
mkess101 said:
Man there's a prop I love here...

Playing Edgar dec +285. Soooo much more value than his ML at +180 imo.

Munhoz has a granite chin, big power, and one of the best guillotines in the UFC (Ortega, Hermannson maybe too?). But he doesn't cut off the cage well and his footwork is so-so. He's terrific against guys who will stand in the pocket and bang, but overall as a striker he's a poor man's Lineker imo.

On the flipside, Frankie is nearing the end of the road for sure. Shopworn, chin likely gone. BUT...he knows what he is and he's a smart vet that knows his only path to victory. He's not likely at all to mess around in the pocket with Munhoz. The guillotine is a concern if Frankie does wrestle, but in 30+ pro fights Frankie has never been subbed. He knows what he's doing on the mat. I don't see Frankie taking chances here, he's got nothing left to prove and doesn't desperately need to try to finish or put on some crazy exciting fight. I see him bouncing around throwing punches from outside the pocket as usual, simply trying to outwork and outpoint Pedro. Possibly mixing in the occasional TD late in rounds to seal them.

Now, of course it only take one shot to end Frankie's night. And it's very possible that happens. But at +285 I really love the value on Frankie's dec line.
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Franke was not very smart in the zombie fight. Terrible fight iq. He looks very old now too, almost 39. He could definitely outpoint munhoz to a dec. I think taking Munhoz down is both dangerous and unlikely. Munhoz kicks could also be a big issue. Maybe we’ll see a renewed edgar like Aldo, but big risk vs Munhoz who was willing to fight anyone. Edgar also said no to 5 rounds from what I heard. He has to fight near perfect to win this, or it’ll be a bad night for him.
 
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