UFC on ESPN+ 30: Kattar v Ige

I like Shore 3rd round too. He seems like a methodical fighter that will just wear the other guy down eventually. I think TKO might be a little more likely as well. For what it's worth, Phillips says he's a BJJ black belt.
The problem with Phillips hasnt fought in a long long while. Jack Shore has being active last year.I am not saying that has a effect but i know a long lay off didn't help a fighter in some cases. Unless Phillis has being training then that would be different. But i dont know.

I still have nightmares from frank camacho hoping that doesnt happen today.
 
Are they really hyper-aggressive finishers? I feel they both like moving in and out, and neither of them mind moving backwards or being on the outside. I'm actually tempted to play the over or starts round 3, but them both having been KOed has me hesitating. Also, I would favour Michalidis straight if he wasn't so damned undersized...

From what I saw, moments of inactivity but when they engage, both really get after it. Both seem to be finishing machines too, albeit against lesser competition.
 
Anyone betting o2.5 at +116 on the Fishgold/Gordon fight?
Fishgold ain't koing him (he only has 2 tko's against bums back in the day) and I don't think he can submit him either.
Moreover, dec seems Gordon's only path to victory...
Seems like there is a bit of value there, isn't there?
 
Anyone betting o2.5 at +116 on the Fishgold/Gordon fight?
Fishgold ain't koing him (he only has 2 tko's against bums back in the day) and I don't think he can submit him either.
Moreover, dec seems Gordon's only path to victory...
Seems like there is a bit of value there, isn't there?

Don't be sure about Fishgold not KO'ing him. Not saying it's likely, but I have NO confidence in Gordon's chin if he gets cracked clean.
 
Yup and so is Michalidis. I would love to see a Greek fighter doing it for Greece has being a while since we havent seen greek fighters.

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It's ok bro, we miss him too.
 
Are they really hyper-aggressive finishers? I feel they both like moving in and out, and neither of them mind moving backwards or being on the outside. I'm actually tempted to play the over or starts round 3, but them both having been KOed has me hesitating. Also, I would favour Michalidis straight if he wasn't so damned undersized...
Wow, you'd favor him straight? It's not even size that worries me, but his cardio is bad, he's really flat-footed and he neither pursues nor retreats in an intelligent way; he's too linear.
 
The problem with Phillips hasnt fought in a long long while. Jack Shore has being active last year.I am not saying that has a effect but i know a long lay off didn't help a fighter in some cases. Unless Phillis has being training then that would be different. But i dont know.

I still have nightmares from frank camacho hoping that doesnt happen today.
He's been training, and his last fight was about 8 months ago so not that long of a layoff. I don't think it'll matter much though. I'd give him a small chance of a TKO. In Shore's last fight, I think he got wobbled but noone really saw his legs do a mini chicken dance.
 
There's levels to can-dom though. Despite her record, Mara Romero Borella isn't THAT bad. I feel pretty comfortable saying she beats any of the cans Molly McCann beat, and it's not like her losses to Chookagian, Lauren Murphy, Montana De La Rosa or Cortney Casey are that embarassing when they're all top 10-15 fighters (Chookagian is obviously top 5, and apparently by some Disney miracle Lauren Murphy is now too)

Styles make fights though, and Molly McCann's defensive grappling isn't up to par while Santos's offensive grappling is solid enough (genuinely, she had a slick back take at the start of the Borella fight), it's entirely possible that Taila Santos subs McCann

I got $4000 praying you're wrong about this scary analysis.

Lol.
 
I watched some tape on Phillips as you always need to look into a steep dog for value. He has pretty good body kicks and striking at range. The problem is his fight IQ, he puts himself in many bad positions. From what I have seen from Jack Shore he is good at dominating the positions so it is just a bad combination of a low IQ fighter going against a high IQ fighter.

Phillips also really struggles once he gets in the pocket and leaves himself open.

I wanted to bet Phillips and that is why I taped it but I can't justify it.
 
Anyone betting o2.5 at +116 on the Fishgold/Gordon fight?
Fishgold ain't koing him (he only has 2 tko's against bums back in the day) and I don't think he can submit him either.
Moreover, dec seems Gordon's only path to victory...
Seems like there is a bit of value there, isn't there?

Jared Gordon has been TKOd in three of his last four fights, of course he is at risk of getting knocked out again if he finds himself in a tough position. It doesn't matter if you get knocked out by a single punch or by brutal ground and pound once your opponent has you wrapped up. It is up to them whether going for a submission or repeated blows will be more effective.

Fishgold has not flashed knockout power but theres many very plausible scenarios wherein this fights end up with Jared being knocked out
 
Wow, you'd favor him straight? It's not even size that worries me, but his cardio is bad, he's really flat-footed and he neither pursues nor retreats in an intelligent way; he's too linear.
Yeah, agreed, his cardio is the most serious concern... But I don't really see him being flat-footed, for the weight-class I think he moves quite well, mainly sitting down on the balls of his feet when he is safely out of range. I think he is more fluid and versatile than Modestas, and even though he comes in with haymakers he usually times it pretty well not to get hit. Modestas seems way more defensively clumsy IMO.
 
Jared Gordon has been TKOd in three of his last four fights, of course he is at risk of getting knocked out again if he finds himself in a tough position. It doesn't matter if you get knocked out by a single punch or by brutal ground and pound once your opponent has you wrapped up. It is up to them whether going for a submission or repeated blows will be more effective.

Fishgold has not flashed knockout power but theres many very plausible scenarios wherein this fights end up with Jared being knocked out
Levels. Wasn't Andrei Arlovski knocked out like four times in a row? Just because three killers are able to knock you out doesn't mean Joe Riggs is
 
Levels. Wasn't Andrei Arlovski knocked out like four times in a row? Just because three killers are able to knock you out doesn't mean Joe Riggs is

Ferreira is a good fighter, but he's hardly a big KO guy. Not sure if I can remember him ever even hurting anyone with punches?

Silva is a big hitter though for sure, and Do Bronx has turned into a guy who can put people away with strikes for sure.

So...you have a decent point here is I guess what I'm saying ha ha.
 
11 fights on the card.

Total subs o6.5 is...+39000. Yeah, 390-1. No, I'm not saying it has a good chance of hitting LMAO. But...c'mon. It's not worth 5 or 10 bucks?

Kattar/Ige-very unlikely, but Ige has 5 subs in his career. If it goes late...there's a small chance anyway.
Benoit/Elliott-Elliott will sub hunt, so for sure possible
Stamman/Rivera-okay almost no chance
Santos/Meatball-It's WMMA and Santos went for one in her last fight so possible
Lazezz/Alhassan-very unlikely
Phillips/Chimaev-for sure, Chimaev is a sub machine
Murphy/Ramos-probably not, but never know
Michalidis/Bukauskus-probably not but club n sub is possible at least
Gordon/Fishgold-for sure possible, Fishgold hunts subs a lot
Jojua/Belbita-well it's WMMA so more likely than KO anyway I guess? But I know nothing about either of them to be fair
Phillips/Shore-good chance Shore subs him

So I only see 2 fights out of 11 where it's near impossible it happens. And who knows, weird things do go down sometimes.

Just sayin'
 
Ferreira is a good fighter, but he's hardly a big KO guy. Not sure if I can remember him ever even hurting anyone with punches?

Silva is a big hitter though for sure, and Do Bronx has turned into a guy who can put people away with strikes for sure.

So...you have a decent point here is I guess what I'm saying ha ha.
Hey Mkess, glad to see you're still around.

Just to add to Gordon's recent KOs - They were all to lightweights where Gordon was undersized. Now he's back at featherweight. CDF isn't exactly a proficient striker, but he has hurt guys on the feet before. In the J Silva fight, Gordon took a lot of big shots during that fight and was only KOd after he tore his hamstring and was a sitting duck. And like you said, Chucky Olives has turned into a solid striker.

Fishgold definitely has a chance to crack Gordon in round 1, but beyond that I'm having a hard time seeing him win this fight
 
Ferreira is a good fighter, but he's hardly a big KO guy. Not sure if I can remember him ever even hurting anyone with punches?

Silva is a big hitter though for sure, and Do Bronx has turned into a guy who can put people away with strikes for sure.

So...you have a decent point here is I guess what I'm saying ha ha.
The context of the Ferreira fight is important. He kicked Jared Gordon in the dick like 12 times and Gordon basically just got right back to it. It's way harder to defend yourself when your nuts went 5 straight minutes living life as a soccer ball
 
Hey Mkess, glad to see you're still around.

Just to add to Gordon's recent KOs - They were all to lightweights where Gordon was undersized. Now he's back at featherweight. CDF isn't exactly a proficient striker, but he has hurt guys on the feet before. In the J Silva fight, Gordon took a lot of big shots during that fight and was only KOd after he tore his hamstring and was a sitting duck. And like you said, Chucky Olives has turned into a solid striker.

Fishgold definitely has a chance to crack Gordon in round 1, but beyond that I'm having a hard time seeing him win this fight

Great to see you here brother!
 
fuck me i didnt think belbita would be so terrible on the ground. I definitely read this fight wrong! I had it going over 2.5 rounds.

why TF would belbita initiate the clinch... baffling
 
Looks like i was wrong on the greek underdog.
Well right about Santos
 
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