UFC on ESPN+ 30: Kattar v Ige

I am liking this fight card for wed i think we are going to see quite a number of finishes and some by underdogs. Any offical reason why that other fight match was canceled?

Bergh is out due to bad weight cut. Deemed “medically unfit”. Never made it to the scale
 
Man, killed it last 2 events but I don't know a lot about plenty of the fighters tomorrow night and no time to tape them all. Pre-fight action gonna be way smaller, will look to live bet more probably. Will have some random parlays going too of course after hitting some nice ones Saturday.

I will say that although I'm on Gordon dec +180, I'm also on Fishgold NSC at -160. Normally I wouldn't pair those props up, but here I think it fits. If Gordon wins, it's likely by dec. If Fishgold does, he likely finishes.

I'm also playing Chimaev KO/TKO at +434. 6 fights, 6 finishes and half are by KO/TKO. From what I can see, 2 TKO finishes are on the mat with gnp. I like taking my chances on that for a finish over paying juice on the sub prop.

Gonna play Meatball too, even though I've only watched part of one fight for her opponent. Molly is nothing special, but she is aggressive and she doesn't let rounds get stolen from her due to complacency or inactivity. That matters a lot in mid/low level WMMA imo. She will fight for your money and I think she can have some grappling success here.

I'm on Kattar itd at -105 too plus rd 4 and 5 finishes for him. I like hime to beat up Ige for awhile and finish late.

Played Stamman dec at +215, just saw it's down to +135, WTF? Glad I snagged that when I did, damn.

Also playing Michalidis/Bukauskus u2.0. These two seem like hyper-aggressive finishers from the 4 total fights I watched of them (which is the most of any fight on the card, and with plenty of the fights the number is zero LOL). I have a hard time seeing this one go on for more than 10 minutes.

Those are my generic pre-fight thoughts for now...
 
Fishgold is pretty confident it doesn't make it past the first round saying "it's kill or be killed," and predicting a first round TKO or getting knocked out.
 
Fishgold is pretty confident it doesn't make it past the first round saying "it's kill or be killed," and predicting a first round TKO or getting knocked out.

Sounds great until Gordon shoots a double and puts Fishgold on his back 20 seconds into the fight ha ha...
 
Sounds great until Gordon shoots a double and puts Fishgold on his back 20 seconds into the fight ha ha...

That will be challenging considering Fishgold is a significantly better wrestler.

Of course, Fishgold might well end up on his back anyways from a scramble or being over-eager with taking the back or going for a submission, but it's less likely to come from Gordon's mediocre, naked double-leg attempts.
 
Sounds great until Gordon shoots a double and puts Fishgold on his back 20 seconds into the fight ha ha...
"we both said we're going to throw down." Fishgold posted that on his instagram page while showing the face off
 
Going to live bet on some other fights maybe, but my slip for this is probably going to be 3k on a parlay of Molly, Elliot, Kattar, and Rivera. Will be 18k profit if I can hit it. dropping one will take it around to 9k or so.

I might drop off Elliot, due to his unpredictable nature, but I dunno yet. Benoit has had only 3 fights since 2016, and the only one he won of those was against a complete bum from over here in AUstralia who was never UFC level.

Molly should be too much for Tahlia, but I'll rewatch some of Tahlia's fights today to take a better look.

Rivera and Stamman are very similar fights, but I think Rivera has a few more tools, slicker striking setups, and more speed on the feet.

Kattar should piece up Ige, I think. Might rewatch some more of Ige though.
 
That will be challenging considering Fishgold is a significantly better wrestler.

Of course, Fishgold might well end up on his back anyways from a scramble or being over-eager with taking the back or going for a submission, but it's less likely to come from Gordon's mediocre, naked double-leg attempts.

Yeah Gordon is no world beating wrestler, but he does pursue the TD. And while Fishgold may techically be the better wrestler, he's ultra aggressive and often doesn't seem to even mind being taken down. He wants to scramble (as you mentioned). Fishgold (from what I've seen) isn't trying to sprawl n brawl. He welcomes the grappling exchanges.
 
"we both said we're going to throw down." Fishgold posted that on his instagram page while showing the face off

Would be dumb of Gordon given his chin issues, but who knows? Glad I have Fishgold NSC, KO, and rd 1 I guess...along with Gordon dec.
 
Don't mistake me betting McCann here as saying she's some secretly top tier fighter. She's not. But Santos WAS given a ufc can in her first fight and failed. McCann's only been successful with that, and I don't see any evidence Santos is better than her last 3 opponents.
There's levels to can-dom though. Despite her record, Mara Romero Borella isn't THAT bad. I feel pretty comfortable saying she beats any of the cans Molly McCann beat, and it's not like her losses to Chookagian, Lauren Murphy, Montana De La Rosa or Cortney Casey are that embarassing when they're all top 10-15 fighters (Chookagian is obviously top 5, and apparently by some Disney miracle Lauren Murphy is now too)

Styles make fights though, and Molly McCann's defensive grappling isn't up to par while Santos's offensive grappling is solid enough (genuinely, she had a slick back take at the start of the Borella fight), it's entirely possible that Taila Santos subs McCann
 
Would be dumb of Gordon given his chin issues, but who knows? Glad I have Fishgold NSC, KO, and rd 1 I guess...along with Gordon dec.
Fishgold looked good during the face offs. Dispute that little missed weight. I would bet on fishgold small one to.
 
There's levels to can-dom though. Despite her record, Mara Romero Borella isn't THAT bad. I feel pretty comfortable saying she beats any of the cans Molly McCann beat, and it's not like her losses to Chookagian, Lauren Murphy, Montana De La Rosa or Cortney Casey are that embarassing when they're all top 10-15 fighters (Chookagian is obviously top 5, and apparently by some Disney miracle Lauren Murphy is now too)

Styles make fights though, and Molly McCann's defensive grappling isn't up to par while Santos's offensive grappling is solid enough (genuinely, she had a slick back take at the start of the Borella fight), it's entirely possible that Taila Santos subs McCann

If you're talking about styles though, where are you getting this idea that Santos is some kind of offensive grappler beyond the first 2 minutes of her UFC debut? She's a kickboxer and a bjj blue belt with no other grappling credentials I'm aware of. This fight is more likely going to be fought on the feet, where McCann should have an edge, or with McCann using her own wrestling, where Santos has decent defense but will be playing defense most of the time. Stylistically McCann wins easily here, and Santos's sub chance isn't any stronger than your average fighter.
 
Might put a little something on Molley, I thought Santos looked a little rough weighing in. I am kinda worried about Meatballs t-Rex arms and cardio though.
 
I had no early leans at all for this card and I am still struggling to come up with anything.
Small on Ige and McCann for now.
Maybe Lazzez/Alhassan starts R2 for 1,91?
But that would be just a gamble.
Fuck I hate this card for betting lol
 
Good Analysis. At first I wrote off Mounir as a scrub that Abdul would run through ( he still could and probably will ) but Mounir is actually probably the most skilled striker Abdul has faced up this point in his career. He is wiry but still pretty strong from what I can tell, but hasn't shown any offensive wrestling ability that I believe would be necessary to beat Abdul.

I also haven't really seen anything great from Mounir's defensive striking and he will probably catch one in the pocket. Chances are Mounir will slowly be backed into the fence as well and be fighting off his back foot which pretty much lends itself to a barnburner.

I am wondering if I should make a play that Abdul finishes him inside the distance or the 1st round. I think his power carries from round to round but I am trying to guage how he is going to come out in light of him mentioning he may want to show more technicality. However, since 30% of his purse gone he is going to want to make that back with a knockout of the night bonus.

This is a huge step up in competition for Mounir, he seems very relaxed in interviews and more or less going with the flow and happy to be there.
Who dont make weight dont gain bonus
 
I've heard people say Mounir Lazzez lives up to his nickname "The Sniper" with a long and rangy style. But from what I've seen Mounir isn't really that great at using his reach to keep guys at distance, for example the rather short Dmitrijs Homjakovs (supposedly 5'8", 173 cm) seemed to have no real trouble reaching him. That does not bode well against Abdul Razak Alhassan who obviously doesn't have to connect very many times to flip the switch. Everything points towards a quick KO for Abdul Razak Alhassan being the most likely outcome, but I've got to put a couple of dimes on Mounir T/KO R1 at +1400. He is at least big, explosive and unpredictable, throw a guy like that in a firefight and anything can happen...
 
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