UFC FN 254 underdog pick of the night.

[doozer]

Got it going early this week. Basically every card at least one underdog beats the odds. Who do you think is most likely to do so this card?

• Marvin Vettori -140 vs. Roman Dolidze +120
• Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -175 vs. Chidi Njokuani +145
• Seungwoo Choi +320 vs. Kevin Vallejos -410
• Alexander Hernandez -205 vs. Kurt Holobaugh +170
• Da’Mon Blackshear -360 vs. Cody Gibson +285
• A.J. Cunningham +500 vs. Su Young You -700
• Waldo Cortes-Acosta -170 vs. Ryan Spann +140
• Sam Hughes +210 vs. Stephanie Luciano -260
• Diyar Nurgozhay -290 vs. Brendson Ribeiro +235
• Josias Musasa -625 vs. Carlos Vera +455
• Daniel Barez +250 vs. Andre Lima -310
• Priscila Cachoeira +170 vs. Josiane Nunes -205
• Yuneisy Duben +400 vs. Carli Judice -535

Last week Gaethje pulled through for me in the expected fire fight bringing my year total score up to 5-3.

This week I have yet to decide. I’m waiting to watch Shillin and Duffy and UFC on the line but the 2 I’m mainly looking at are Kurt Holobaugh (Alexander beat hubberd by split last fight and Kurt beat him by sub for the ultimate fighter champion), and Sam Hughes (she’s always the underdog and wins half those fights, the girl she’s against doesn’t have huge credentials).

 

[RoseHDCovington]

Bet the underdogs in WMMA. Highest likelihood for an underdog to win

 

[gentel]

Alexander Hernandez has been mid ever since Cowboy clowned him, I think Kurt Holobaugh is the right pick

tbf Holobaugh's fight with Ogden was one of the most miserable I've ever seen, but Hernandez doesn't have that top control lay-n-pray style like Ogden

 

[Sean Chowdhury]

I got spann beating waldo if spann is an underdog, also picking chidi over ZDS

 

[doozer]

Bet the underdogs in WMMA. Highest likelihood for an underdog to win

That’s very interesting. I would have thought it was the other way. The fact that men are more likely to finish means it’s easier to get a 1 shot upset. If one person is just better than the other and no risk of getting caught then I can often see the outcome long before the decision.

 

[doozer]

Alexander Hernandez has been mid ever since Cowboy clowned him, I think Kurt Holobaugh is the right pick

tbf Holobaugh's fight with Ogden was one of the most miserable I've ever seen, but Hernandez doesn't have that top control lay-n-pray style like Ogden

Glad to hear you agree. To be honest Hernandez has felt like a shining prospect to me since he arrived and koed Darush. But I have to let go of those feelings and look at the facts.

 

[doozer]

I got spann beating waldo if spann is an underdog, also picking chidi over ZDS

Chidi is very good. Spann was definitely someone I looked at and would look harder if I didn’t have picks I feel more comfortable in. spann is very good and Waldo is talented but talking a real step up.

 

[Gabe]

Wow. This is a card.

 

[Thesnake101]

I got Chidi over Zaleski here, think his striking at range will carry him to a win.

 

[RoseHDCovington]

That’s very interesting. I would have thought it was the other way. The fact that men are more likely to finish means it’s easier to get a 1 shot upset. If one person is just better than the other and no risk of getting caught then I can often see the outcome long before the decision.

I have meant to do the research before but have forgotten numerous times.

All I know is I've put wmma fighters that were very sizeable favorites in my past parlays and they have cost me on numerous occasions.

I will sometimes pick 2 or 3 heavy favorites to boost my parlay (even if it's not much) even if I didn't know who these fighters were. You're 5-1 favorite? You're going in my $10 "break even for the night" parlay that should be a lock. I've accidentally picked wmma fighters after I've vowed "NEVER AGAIN" because I was looking at odds instead of names.

Tldr: bet on wmma underdogs because wmma is so unpredictable.

 

[Ruv]

Roman is going to reign down blows and KO that knucklehead Marvin this time.

 

[Kowboy On Sherdog]

There are some big-time underdogs on this card... a bunch of them. Someone is going to make some monies.

 

[SamuraiBro]

Vettori is the favourite WTF!
Dude arguably lost the first fight, hasn’t fought in 18 months, had surgeries and coming off a brutal beating.

 

[CroCopsLHK]

Better not offer this card to Abu Dahbi or Saudi Arabia they would wipe their nose with it and cry

 

[Hymen Crusher]

It's barely an underdog but roman is a good pick.

 

[doozer]

Wow. This is a card.

I don’t mind it. Nothing exciting or special on here, but I know almost all the fighters not just by name but I have a bit of a feel for them so I’ll enjoy it more than DWCS. Not much in terms of hot prospects though, and brutal top fights. What is it with rematches with nothing on the line that just happened? First Geathje then this. Geathje I understand they needed a short notice fill in. But we just had this fight. Why would I want to watch Marvin and Roman again when I just watched that, no matter how exciting it was.

 

[doozer]

I got Chidi over Zaleski here, think his striking at range will carry him to a win.

He’s a talented guy, zaleski will be a stiff test though.

 

[doozer]

I have meant to do the research before but have forgotten numerous times.

All I know is I've put wmma fighters that were very sizeable favorites in my past parlays and they have cost me on numerous occasions.

I will sometimes pick 2 or 3 heavy favorites to boost my parlay (even if it's not much) even if I didn't know who these fighters were. You're 5-1 favorite? You're going in my $10 "break even for the night" parlay that should be a lock. I've accidentally picked wmma fighters after I've vowed "NEVER AGAIN" because I was looking at odds instead of names.

Tldr: bet on wmma underdogs because wmma is so unpredictable.

Ouch sorry to hear that. I wondered if it was personal experience. I wonder what causes it. Maybe they are less well rounded and can have their weaknesses exposed by a good game plan.

Unfortunately as I’m not betting for odds but picking my 1 upset I have to know them enough to be fairly confident not just have a coin flip. That said in this case one of my underdog picks I’m considering is Sam Hughes, so that is good to keep in mind.

 

[doozer]

Roman is going to reign down blows and KO that knucklehead Marvin this time.

If I’ve learned one thing about Marvin it is that he is impossible to KO

 

[doozer]

There are some big-time underdogs on this card... a bunch of them. Someone is going to make some monies.

I’m sure there are. Im not one of them as I’m not that confident in my picks. But as a rule of thumb I feel it pays for people to put a little on Sam Hughes, she is always an underdog and wins half the time.