UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo

[B.Goetz]

So far I like Xiaonan (-188) and Salikhov (-175).

 

[guesswhoseback]

Salikhov vs. Song is tricky.

I'm not worried about Sali age, but he slows down if you make him work at a higher pace than he is used to. If he can't stay at kicking range, he's not comfortable. If Song crashes the pocket, Sali will be forced throw more punches and get tired or dropped.

At this point I also like Song chin more. He is the local fighter, but Sali is well-known in that country because of his striking matches before MMA. "The King of Kungfu"

What do yall think about this mat

Over 2.5

 

[guesswhoseback]

They're back to pricing Yan like they did from 2018-22 where he was -300 to -400 against everyone including top 3, top 5 BWs? I wanted to play him here but almost -350.... WTF wasn't expecting that.

I suppose Yan covered -170 against Song though he lost the 1st round. But damn near every fight he was priced -300 to -400 he almost never covered that wide.

Tempted to play Fig but worried he will just cover his price, score a knockdown, get ground control but lose a 48-47 decision.

Take fig point spread

 

[ExitLUPin]

Take fig point spread

Never bet spreads but I read 1 moron judge having an atrocious score can kill the entire bet? Is that true?

 

[Thesnake101]

Never bet spreads but I read 1 moron judge having an atrocious score can kill the entire bet? Is that true?

Depends on the spread. Think one of Fig's current spreads is +13.5 at like -185 or something like that. That one hits if at least one judge gives him 1 round.

 

[mkess101]

Never bet spreads but I read 1 moron judge having an atrocious score can kill the entire bet? Is that true?

Yes, but mathematically it's less likely that one bad judge would ruin it (though still possible obviously) in a 5 rounder vs a 3 rounder.

For example let's say Yan/Fig was 3 rounds. Consensus was Fig won rd 1 and Yan rds 2 and 3. So it **should** be 29-28 across the board. But one shitty judge gave Yan 30-27. That kills a Fig +3.5 spread that **should** have cashed.
But let's say it's a 5 rounder. Consensus is 48-47 Yan and two judges have it that way. The third judge could have it 49-46 and Fig +5.5 still cashes. He'd have to fuck up both other rounds and have it 50-45 in order for Fig +5.5 to lose.

Basically the extra rounds make it so that a bad judge has to be even worse and fuck up multiple rounds to screw over the spread instead of just fucking up one round and potentially ruining it.

 

[Thesnake101]

Ozzy to win by KO is +500, that's pretty much his only way of beating Zhang, who has been KO'd several times before, so I think I'll hit that as a way of squeezing more value out of the dog there.

Also looking at Wang KO at +270.

 

[GetSomeSuga]

This will be my strategy for saturday:

Yan, Ulberg (safety parlay 1)
Salikhov, Mahashete (safety parlay 2)
Ricci (underdog)

Yan (live after R1)

 

[Stat_Collector]

Can someone give me a second opinion on this matchup? Am i crazy if i think that Wang is overrated?

she's got fast kicks, but i dont see a crazy skill gap here.

Is this another Grasso/Valentina 1?

the market always over inflates anything that once touched Shevchenko. Seems like such and over inflated line based on record capping.

On tape Fernandez is just as fast a kicker and she has more snapping power in her punches. She also has a decent chin and looks better in these non grappler matchups. I dont see it, anyone else please turn me away from this .

Fernandez dec is 1100+ is it not worth it?

 

[mkess101]

Can someone give me a second opinion on this matchup? Am i crazy if i think that Wang is overrated?

she's got fast kicks, but i dont see a crazy skill gap here.

Is this another Grasso/Valentina 1?

the market always over inflates anything that once touched Shevchenko. Seems like such and over inflated line based on record capping.

On tape Fernandez is just as fast a kicker and she has more snapping power in her punches. She also has a decent chin and looks better in these non grappler matchups. I dont see it, anyone else please turn me away from this .

Fernandez dec is 1100+ is it not worth it?

I think Cong wrecks her but that's just me. Fernandez issues aren't offensive striking imo, I agree she's pretty good. She's just too defensively irresponsible imo. And Cong with these small gloves and a girl who eats this many punches...yikes. Plus Cong can grapple and Fernandes is easy to take down. She's an upright kickboxer with little head movement.

All that said...it's not like all of this isnt reflected in the line. If you think you see an angle where Fernandes has a reasonable ptv at such juicy price...go for it. +1100 decision is a helluva line IF you see that as even a somewhat possible outcome.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I think Cong wrecks her but that's just me. Fernandez issues aren't offensive striking imo, I agree she's pretty good. She's just too defensively irresponsible imo. And Cong with these small gloves and a girl who eats this many punches...yikes. Plus Cong can grapple and Fernandes is easy to take down. She's an upright kickboxer with little head movement.

All that said...it's not like all of this isnt reflected in the line. If you think you see an angle where Fernandes has a reasonable ptv at such juicy price...go for it. +1100 decision is a helluva line IF you see that as even a somewhat possible outcome.

i deleted my last post, im just passing. you're probably right. i dont think grappling will play a role, but Fernandez has terrible defense against kicks, more so than punches.

I take it back too, Wang kicks are faster. I think its bed time. lol.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Ozzy to win by KO is +500, that's pretty much his only way of beating Zhang, who has been KO'd several times before, so I think I'll hit that as a way of squeezing more value out of the dog there.

Also looking at Wang KO at +270.

Ozzy sub is sneaky IMO. I would just bet his finish line personally if you want more than +250 ML