UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2

[DalchaLungiambula]

Love this card

10U - Alex Hernandez to win 5.5U

5U - Vettori to win 4U

5U - Lima + Nurgozhay to win 4.4U

This will probably be the last time I provide my bets publicly for free. But don't worry they will still be able to be purchased through BetMMA for about the price of a PPV

Just bet .75U on Barez at +330 at BetOnline, giving only 2.5U of liability on Lima

 

[guesswhoseback]

Just bet .75U on Barez at +330 at BetOnline, giving only 2.5U of liability on Lima

No one cares

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

No one cares

No one cares about any of your shit either though.

Bum ass bettor that bets $5 on people like Pereira and Modestas Bukauskas.

You don't provide any breakdowns on any fights, only thing you've been useful for is when I've faded some of your picks in the past

 

[Oblivian]

Just bet .75U on Barez at +330 at BetOnline, giving only 2.5U of liability on Lima

While increasing your liability on Nurgonzhay...

 

[guesswhoseback]

No one cares about any of your shit either though.

Bum ass bettor that bets $5 on people like Pereira and Modestas Bukauskas.

You don't provide any breakdowns on any fights, only thing you've been useful for is when I've faded some of your picks in the past

OK

 

[Stat_Collector]

no one is talking about Spans's dec line almost at 1k+ odds?

worth a shot.



Knowing Waldo has zero finish losses in mma, i think the book makers are way off on this one. It's paid off before seeing high finishers win by decision like Sergei Pavlovich last fight.

 

[rille31]

UFC Fight Night 254 weigh-in results: Two misses, including 4.5-pound botch

What seemed like a routine UFC Apex event weigh-in went awry with three misses on the scale for Saturday’s UFC Vegas 104.

mmajunkie.usatoday.com

 

[PuertoRican]

I like the following people to win:

• Dolidze
• Zaleski
• Hernandez
• Blackshear
• Nurgozhay
• Vallejos
• Spann
• You/Cunningham no idea
• Vera/Musasa no idea
• Hughes
• Lima
• Cachoeira
• Judice

 

[Kazda1]

I like the following people to win:

• Dolidze
• Zaleski
• Hernandez
• Blackshear
• Nurgozhay
• Vallejos
• Spann
• You/Cunningham no idea
• Vera/Musasa no idea
• Hughes
• Lima
• Cachoeira
• Judice

What are your thoughts on Hughes? I initially thought she was a better grappler but I felt I got lucky cashing her in her last fight. She seems to rely on her striking a lot more than I thought

 

[guesswhoseback]

I like the following people to win:

• Dolidze
• Zaleski
• Hernandez
• Blackshear
• Nurgozhay
• Vallejos
• Spann
• You/Cunningham no idea
• Vera/Musasa no idea
• Hughes
• Lima
• Cachoeira
• Judice

Speaking of every fighter you like to win have u ever went 12-0 or 11-0 or however many fights there might be because every event I do a parlay for every fighter I think will win

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Just bet .75U on Barez at +330 at BetOnline, giving only 2.5U of liability on Lima

Just bet another 1.15U on Barez at +385; and 2U on Ribeiro at +350.

Spoiler: Breakdown

This means if Barez wins, and Ribeiro loses, I will: Make 6.9U on Barez, Lose 2U on Ribiero, and lose 5U on Lima/ Dinyar parlay = -0.1U loss

If Barez loses, and Ribeiro wins, I will: Lose 1.9U on Barez, win 7U on Ribeiro, and lose 5U on Lima/ Dinyar parlay = 0.1U profit

Or if, Barez loses, and Ribeiro loses, I will: Lose 1.9U on Barez, lose 2U on Ribeiro, and make 4.4U on Lima/ Dinyar parlay = 0.5U profit

After watching tape, Dinyar isn't worth the odds I took him at.

Ribeiro is not as bad of a fighter as I thought he was.

Luckily CLV was secured, so we can hedge out without any issue

 

[PuertoRican]

Speaking of every fighter you like to win have u ever went 12-0 or 11-0 or however many fights there might be because every event I do a parlay for every fighter I think will win

The last time I went undefeated with just my picks on a UFC card was UFC 297. I accidentally bet U4.5 in the the co-main event between Pennington and Bueno Silva cuz the odds were identical to O4.5 rounds, and I didn't notice until right before the fight started, so I hedge for a few hundred profit instead of winning $1400 from a small bet.

I usually don't put the entire fight card in a parlay because it's a waste of money long-term. I'll do long shot parlays with 6-8 people at most for the same UFC fight card.

 

[PuertoRican]

What are your thoughts on Hughes? I initially thought she was a better grappler but I felt I got lucky cashing her in her last fight. She seems to rely on her striking a lot more than I thought

I think Hughes can give Luciano a vet lesson, but she needs to crash the pocket the entire time and stay close to her. The longer they fight at distance, the more Luciano is winning the fight.

Hughes doesn't need TDs and probably shouldn't go for them to save energy. Instead, grind Luciano against the cage.

Luciano looks good if you stand in front of her, and I don't think her foot movement is great.

It'll probably be close if Hughes does what she needs to, and she'll probably lose a close fight and be another value loser against a young, cute prospect who the UFC wants to win.

I didn't bet Hughes for a reason.

 

[EndlessCritic]

Feel like this one could be dog city, and I have a ton of thoughts, but for brevity I'm going to only provide one.

I thought Duben would get overvalued because of her impressive KO on DWCS. Instead, the opposite has occurred, and I think she probably has value at current prices.

In addition, I have a working theory I call the wisdom of the crowds: Tapology picks where the crowd has picked the underdog are disproportionately more likely to cash.

By example, on the last three cards, there were only three fighters where Tapology users had picked the betting underdog: Gaethje, Brunno Ferreira, and Font. All three won via upset.

UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev | MMA Event | Tapology

UFC 313 took place Saturday, March 8, 2025 with 10 fights at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. View fight card, video, results, predictions, and news.

www.tapology.com

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev | MMA Event | Tapology

UFC Fight Night took place Saturday, March 1, 2025 with 10 fights at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. View fight card, video, results, predictions, and news.

www.tapology.com

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song | MMA Event | Tapology

UFC Fight Night took place Saturday, February 22, 2025 with 12 fights at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington. View fight card, video, results, predictions, and news.

www.tapology.com

A whopping 70% of people on Tapology have picked Duben to beat Judice. In every other fight, the picks match the betting odds. https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/120489-ufc-fight-night

If you believe in the wisdom of the crowds, that kind of disconnect may be a signal for clear value. I'd be very interested to see how Tapology underdog picks have done over the last year if anyone wants to run the numbers.

 

[mkess101]

Feel like this one could be dog city, and I have a ton of thoughts, but for brevity I'm going to only provide one.

I thought Duben would get overvalued because of her impressive KO on DWCS. Instead, the opposite has occurred, and I think she probably has value at current prices.

In addition, I have a working theory I call the wisdom of the crowds: Tapology picks where the crowd has picked the underdog are disproportionately more likely to cash.

By example, on the last three cards, there were only three fighters where Tapology users had picked the betting underdog: Gaethje, Brunno Ferreira, and Font. All three won via upset.

UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev | MMA Event | Tapology

UFC 313 took place Saturday, March 8, 2025 with 10 fights at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. View fight card, video, results, predictions, and news.

www.tapology.com

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev | MMA Event | Tapology

UFC Fight Night took place Saturday, March 1, 2025 with 10 fights at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. View fight card, video, results, predictions, and news.

www.tapology.com

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song | MMA Event | Tapology

UFC Fight Night took place Saturday, February 22, 2025 with 12 fights at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington. View fight card, video, results, predictions, and news.

www.tapology.com

A whopping 70% of people on Tapology have picked Duben to beat Judice. In every other fight, the picks match the betting odds. https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/120489-ufc-fight-night

If you believe in the wisdom of the crowds, that kind of disconnect may be a signal for clear value. I'd be very interested to see how Tapology underdog picks have done over the last year if anyone wants to run the numbers.

I think there **could** be something to that, but I'd be more wary when it's an undefeated fighter. First, because unbeaten fighters have been losing over 50% of the time lately. Second, because with something like Tapology you're gonna get a good amount of people who see 6-0 vs 3-2 and immediately pick the 6-0 with zero clue about either girl. Especially on an early prelim fight with unknown fighters like these 2.

Judice throws MASSIVE volume. Like...she might be the busiest fighter on the roster. She has great cardio and she is fine just fighting in a phone booth where she eats and lands a zillion strikes. Duben clearly has some pop for a small girl, so imo if you're gonna play her may as well check out the KO line. All 6 of her wins are finishes (5 KO's) and Judice will absolutely absorb strikes.

I think Judice wins a decision but I get the idea of rolling the dice on Duben KO.

 

[JC615]

wiki cappin but Carli Judice best pro win is currently 3-5

And she's fighting someone who's 6-0 and +230. Sign me the fuck up.

 

[mkess101]

And she's fighting someone who's 6-0 and +230. Sign me the fuck up.

So...yes the line is probably a little wide. Let's get that out of the way. But just for some context so people don't go apeshit on Duben (or...go apeshit haha but do it with eyes wide open):

Judice 2 losses are split decisions to WAY WAY WAY better fighters than Duben. Fernandez and Kareckaite are legit. Judice landed a ridiculous amount on both and could've won both those fights. Duben's KO on DWCS over that 5-0 overhyped wrestler was super cool. Awesome moment for a massive underdog. One great punch though against a newb can crusher. The other 5 wins for Duben (all finishes tbf)...are a combined...wait for it...0-10 in MMA.

 

[JC615]

So...yes the line is probably a little wide. Let's get that out of the way. But just for some context so people don't go apeshit on Duben (or...go apeshit haha but do it with eyes wide open):

Judice 2 losses are split decisions to WAY WAY WAY better fighters than Duben. Fernandez and Kareckaite are legit. Judice landed a ridiculous amount on both and could've won both those fights. Duben's KO on DWCS over that 5-0 overhyped wrestler was super cool. Awesome moment for a massive underdog. One great punch though against a newb can crusher. The other 5 wins for Duben (all finishes tbf)...are a combined...wait for it...0-10 in MMA.

Oh dude I wasn't gonna go any heavier than $5-$10 on a damn opening women's fight. Fuck that shit lol. I realize level of opposition isn't there but the line's +230, not +500 so don't mind sprinkling on Duben.

 

[StewDogg11]

Speaking of every fighter you like to win have u ever went 12-0 or 11-0 or however many fights there might be because every event I do a parlay for every fighter I think will win

I remember someone put like $200 on an entire card parlay of UFC 131 and won.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Feel like this one could be dog city, and I have a ton of thoughts, but for brevity I'm going to only provide one.

I thought Duben would get overvalued because of her impressive KO on DWCS. Instead, the opposite has occurred, and I think she probably has value at current prices.

In addition, I have a working theory I call the wisdom of the crowds: Tapology picks where the crowd has picked the underdog are disproportionately more likely to cash.

By example, on the last three cards, there were only three fighters where Tapology users had picked the betting underdog: Gaethje, Brunno Ferreira, and Font. All three won via upset.

UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev | MMA Event | Tapology

UFC 313 took place Saturday, March 8, 2025 with 10 fights at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. View fight card, video, results, predictions, and news.

www.tapology.com

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev | MMA Event | Tapology

UFC Fight Night took place Saturday, March 1, 2025 with 10 fights at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. View fight card, video, results, predictions, and news.

www.tapology.com

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song | MMA Event | Tapology

UFC Fight Night took place Saturday, February 22, 2025 with 12 fights at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington. View fight card, video, results, predictions, and news.

www.tapology.com

A whopping 70% of people on Tapology have picked Duben to beat Judice. In every other fight, the picks match the betting odds. https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/120489-ufc-fight-night

If you believe in the wisdom of the crowds, that kind of disconnect may be a signal for clear value. I'd be very interested to see how Tapology underdog picks have done over the last year if anyone wants to run the numbers.

I think I tried running the numbers for this a while ago and overall it was a money loser as was just about everything I've run numbers for where I've looked for patterns lol