UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev

[XociDe]

I bet Nasrat against Jared Gordon and was pretty disgusted with what I saw. Ribovics should have more than enough to win this fight.

Gomis is the far superior fighter and odds should definitely be wider.

 

[Oblivian]

Count me in on considering Lee here. I'd be very surprised if she doesn't make this a coinflip type fight.

 

[Thesnake101]

I bet Nasrat against Jared Gordon and was pretty disgusted with what I saw. Ribovics should have more than enough to win this fight.

Keep in mind Ribo tends to give up at least one round in all of his decisions so far, and this is the toughest test he's had. Imo at his current price there's no reason to bet him.

He's in the Rodolfo Vieira zone as far as value goes. There's safer favorites to pick up for a similar line.

 

[XociDe]

Keep in mind Ribo tends to give up at least one round in all of his decisions so far, and this is the toughest test he's had. Imo at his current price there's no reason to bet him.

He's in the Rodolfo Vieira zone as far as value goes. There's safer favorites to pick up for a similar line.

I dunno, I think Zellhuber would beat Nasrat. I also think Ribovics is showing clear improvements from fight-to-fight. I like betting on fighters who really want it.

I can see the first round being somewhat competitive then Ribovics taking over. His shots have much more behind them and we know he will dog it out for the full 15 minutes if needed.

Maybe Nasrat had an off night against Gordon but it left a pretty bad taste in my mouth. Ribovics has much more speed, intensity, and cardio than Gordon.

Who do you think are safer favorites on the card?

 

[Thesnake101]

Who do you think are safer favorites on the card?

You can get Gomis for better odds than Ribo currently, and I don't see why he wouldn't beat Amil.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I've been going back and forth with Danny SIlva and Almeida retaping.

Danny is obviously a more durable fighter and a better boxer. Almeida is the better kickboxer when it comes to kicks and mixing it up with punches, but Silva has the better slips and shoulder rows and overall better at applying pressure. I just don't know if he has the slickness or timing of Fili to catch Almeida, or is he going to try and grapple him. He has a split dec win with Culibao and a ww3 fight with Pacheco, before that he has a ko1 on a chinny guy and a lost to Canaan that had grappling involved.

On record capping, Almeida has better wins, a r3 dominate ko win over Trizano, a competitive fight with Zellhuber. And his other losses are Fili and Sabatini. He's pushing 34 and Danny is 28 and has been spotted training in Tristar gym.

My taping says that Silva will be too gritty and just maybe catch Almeida or try and wrestle him and win similar to Culibao fight.

But the record capping aspect wont let me pull the trigger. How does a guy that struggled in his last two fights warrant a play at -200? I can risk it with a ko line for silva , or play Almeida decision since i know Silva has an iron chin.

If anyone has a unique take that i may have missed, let me know. I want to take a crack at either one, but seems like the better option is to pass.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Chepe and Casteneda look safe to me. Both are better at applying a high pace work rate in 3 rounds, i like them as a team mexico parlay.

 

[Thesnake101]

Chepe and Casteneda look safe to me. Both are better at applying a high pace work rate in 3 rounds, i like them as a team mexico parlay.

I'm waiting for Chepe KO line. Didn't cash against Jackson (though there were opportunities), but Ramos is pretty damn frail. Only 1 out of his 6 losses was by decision.

Not very worried about the BJJ because Chepe did pretty well against Sabatini way back when in the regional circuit, and he's not someone who just lays flat on his back.

I like John as well, but Douglas can pull some bullshit out his ass (Morozov) to win so idk if I'm willing to play the current odds.

 

[mkess101]

Chepe and Casteneda look safe to me. Both are better at applying a high pace work rate in 3 rounds, i like them as a team mexico parlay.

Chepe work rate is elite. Maybe not Merab level but the next tier for sure (Merab probably his own tier). It's a lot of juice but imo there's almost no way Chepe loses if it sees the cards. A low likelihood meme sub might be the only chance he loses.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'm waiting for Chepe KO line. Didn't cash against Jackson (though there were opportunities), but Ramos is pretty damn frail. Only 1 out of his 6 losses was by decision.

Not very worried about the BJJ because Chepe did pretty well against Sabatini way back when in the regional circuit, and he's not someone who just lays flat on his back.

I like John as well, but Douglas can pull some bullshit out his ass (Morozov) to win so idk if I'm willing to play the current odds.

i'll probably hedge a ko line if it's wide enough to profit with a decision line for chepe, i'll sacrifice a unit there.

Andrade looks scary to bet against at first glance. But then I notice he has 2 kos in the ufc, his other 18 kos were Brazilian cab drivers. I dont think John of all people will get koed, he's a real mexican fighter. And Andrade's low output style i think favors John to win on score card, he rocked Daniel Marcos in their fight. he's a gritty fighter and younger. that's enough for me to warrant a mid size play.

playing the decision line for plus odds btw.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Chepe work rate is elite. Maybe not Merab level but the next tier for sure (Merab probably his own tier). It's a lot of juice but imo there's almost no way Chepe loses if it sees the cards. A low likelihood meme sub might be the only chance he loses.

agreed.

you have a take on Danny Silva?

 

[Hellowhosthat]

On Patterson. I understand he can get knocked out here but I don't see how Barlow covers this line at all. Patterson should have a massive advantage on the ground and Barlow isn't particularly high output on the feet.

 

[mkess101]

agreed.

you have a take on Danny Silva?

I lean Silva due to pace and the ability to mix up striking and grappling...but finishing upside probably with Almeida? Seems like a pass, fight can go a number of ways and kinda feels like one of the tougher ones to cap.

 

[mkess101]

On Patterson. I understand he can get knocked out here but I don't see how Barlow covers this line at all. Patterson should have a massive advantage on the ground and Barlow isn't particularly high output on the feet.

The challenge for Patterson is that he's great on the mat, but in order for that to matter he has to 1) close distance and 2) try to take down a more athletic guy.

Barlow isn’t high output because he doesn't want to lead. He wants to counter and needs the right opponent. Patterson's striking is rough, so he kinda has to be reckless to try to get ahold of Barlow but that leads to a good chance of him getting KO'd.

Of course, odds also reflect that so I get where your mind is at.

 

[Oblivian]

I'm starting to lean towards Patterson too. If you really look at Barlow, what has he done? The Nikolay win certainly didn't age well after he was dominated by Vandeford. I'll admit he was in control over Quinlan, but he also didn't get him out of there quickly and Quinlan hasn't won a fight since. Rahaem was just a see who goes down first fight. Besides that, most of his early finishes are cans. He went to decision with a 1-1 fighter. You can argue this is a bad matchup for Patterson stylistically, but I'd argue he's far more potent on the ground than Barlow is standing. He's also got pretty solid wins over guys like Magomedov. I'm really having trouble understanding the line the more that I look into it.

 

[guidi]

On Brundage at dog odds, Marquez got blown out his last fight and looks pretty shot added to the fact that his last win is Smilin Sam of all people. Cody can be fragile but seems like he has a lot more in the tank and way more active than Marquez as well.

 

[mkess101]

I'm starting to lean towards Patterson too. If you really look at Barlow, what has he done? The Nikolay win certainly didn't age well after he was dominated by Vandeford. I'll admit he was in control over Quinlan, but he also didn't get him out of there quickly and Quinlan hasn't won a fight since. Rahaem was just a see who goes down first fight. Besides that, most of his early finishes are cans. He went to decision with a 1-1 fighter. You can argue this is a bad matchup for Patterson stylistically, but I'd argue he's far more potent on the ground than Barlow is standing. He's also got pretty solid wins over guys like Magomedov. I'm really having trouble understanding the line the more that I look into it.

Feel like it's just better to play sub prop for Sam if you like him? I guess I'd need to see how much different it is than his ML but it's hard for me to see him winning another way. His standup is poor, and he's not a lay n pray guy. He will take chances to advance position, and he'll hunt subs. Which means if he gets Barlow down he likely finds a sub or gives Barlow openings to get back up where Barlow has a big advantage. (Even with Barlow's relatively low output, he's much better standing than Sam).

 

[Macaque]

Cenci hit Patterson with the southpaw cross at will. I’m worried for his chin vs. Barlow. I don’t like the odds, though.

 

[PuertoRican]

From 12 fights to 10 fights with one of those being a catch weight.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Going with Asu as a dog. I would pick Asu over Mokaev. He’s got just as much the same skills to win here.