UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2

[mkess101]

Yeah, I don't really see much reason to think either guy will be much different to last time. I guess my doubt for Dolidze is probably in 4 and 5, I'd need to rewatch the Imavov fight to see how Dolidze looked there. I don't have any doubts about Marvin over 5.

Dolidze was in survival mode late in that fight iirc. But that had as much to do with him getting pieced up as anything. Gonna look gassed and tired when you're getting lit up. I don't think Marvin has the arsenal that Imavov has to do that (especially now). That said, I couldn't have a ton of confidence in Dolidze here either. Definitely dog or pass though.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Dolidze was in survival mode late in that fight iirc. But that had as much to do with him getting pieced up as anything. Gonna look gassed and tired when you're getting lit up. I don't think Marvin has the arsenal that Imavov has to do that (especially now). That said, I couldn't have a ton of confidence in Dolidze here either. Definitely dog or pass though.

Definitely doesn't have the same ability to piece him up but he has always fought at a high pace generally.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Anyway, Spann is the first guy I'm taking this week. Coming up a weight class but should be a lot quicker and hits hard anyway. Waldo got a good chin but kind of lumbering and not a one shot KO artist so not too worried about Spann's chin. Spann should have the grappling advantage if he goes there and I like that Spann throws leg kicks and body teeps which should offset the Waldo size advantage.

 

[mkess101]

Definitely doesn't have the same ability to piece him up but he has always fought at a high pace generally.

He does do that. But a lot of it is cage hugging and non-sig strikes--distraction shots I'd call them. It may still slow Dolidze down, but the body language difference may be noticeable. Dolidze looked battered vs Imavov.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

He does do that. But a lot of it is cage hugging and non-sig strikes--distraction shots I'd call them. It may still slow Dolidze down, but the body language difference may be noticeable. Dolidze looked battered vs Imavov.

Yeah, I'm not anti-playing Dolize. I haven't taped that one yet.

 

[rille31]

wiki cappin but Carli Judice best pro win is currently 3-5

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Dolidze is a can

 

[mkess101]

Dolidze is a can

A can that went tooth and nail with Vettori once already. UD for Vettori but fight was pretty obviously extremely close. Media had 28 people score it. 14 had it for Vettori, 14 for Dolidze.

I actually thought the line was wider than it is so Dolidze doesn't look all that appealing at only +115 or whatever. But nor would I be rushing to pay any juice at all on Marvin here.

 

[Thesnake101]

A can that went tooth and nail with Vettori once already. UD for Vettori but fight was pretty obviously extremely close. Media had 28 people score it. 14 had it for Vettori, 14 for Dolidze.

I actually thought the line was wider than it is so Dolidze doesn't look all that appealing at only +115 or whatever. But nor would I be rushing to pay any juice at all on Marvin here.

I think the line will get better for Roman in the coming days, or at least I hope so.

A way to play the main event if you're not too keen on either side would be a decision bet on Dolidze pre-fight, and then live bet Marvin after the first two if you see Roman gassing.

 

[Mike Panther]

Love this card

10U - Alex Hernandez to win 5.5U

5U - Vettori to win 4U

5U - Lima + Nurgozhay to win 4.4U

This will probably be the last time I provide my bets publicly for free. But don't worry they will still be able to be purchased through BetMMA for about the price of a PPV

I'll bite. Not digging your chalky double. Line is way off on Barez / Lima.

 

[Guld]

I'm going for Spann(+120) and Dolidze(+130). Not super confident in either, but I like the odds.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Gibson should not be this much of a dog based on his skillsets, he can wrestle and box, no reason for Blackshear to be this favorited with his loopy boxing.

 

[Thesnake101]

Gibson should not be this much of a dog based on his skillsets, he can wrestle and box, no reason for Blackshear to be this favorited with his loopy boxing.

37yo BW Gibson who tends to flag vs the better opponents he faces.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Gibson screams value loser to me.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

I'll bite. Not digging your chalky double. Line is way off on Barez / Lima.

It was a pick from my model.

I'd never seen either of them fight until today.

Yeah, Lima doesn't really impress me that much.

I don't know wtf Rogan was watching in the fight with "Mitch", when he kept crapping on about how unbelievable Lima's striking was.

His hands look like a potential point of weakness to me - especially in this match.

Barez in saying that, just seems to fall away after the 1st round.

Pretty much every fight he has ever had that has gone to a decision, has only been a split decision win; or a loss.

I'll probably bet 1.67U on Barez at +300 to lay off all liability and hopefully get 2.7U in the event Lima and Nurg win.

Lima live bet after he potentially loses round 1 may be an option too

 

[Oblivian]

Gibson is so strange to cap. It's hard to say if he overperformed against Katona, Kelleher, and Ahneliger or underperformed against Johns. He's a guy that I never really like looking at as a favorite because of how flaky he is, but it's hard to not look at him as a dog here.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Gibson is so strange to cap. It's hard to say if he overperformed against Katona, Kelleher, and Ahneliger or underperformed against Johns. He's a guy that I never really like looking at as a favorite because of how flaky he is, but it's hard to not look at him as a dog here.

i’ll probably play blackshear by sub. he’s got near 70% and Cody has 40% sub losses. Most of Cody's sub losses have come in rnd 3 due to exhaustion. I can see a late sub finish for Blackshear. I noticed Ray Borg was able to pass Cody's guard with ease and i think this is very much within Blackshear's wheelhouse.

I flip flop alot i should probably stop posting first glance postings before i deep dive.

Edt: maybe hedge a cody dec line, since blackshear is known to lose scorecards often.