UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov

[guesswhoseback]

dumas-dec
bedoya-dec
dudakeva-dec
vucencic-sub2
gaziev-sub1
yaha-dec
murzahkanov-ko2
alvarez-sub2
godinez-dec
chisea-dec
fig-dec
magomdedmov-dec
nurmagedmov-dec

 

[Stat_Collector]

Iirc Virna's "control time" was her desperately defending from top and as soon as she had the chance for a clean exit she took it once she realized what she was dealing with. I need to rewatch though, I **think** that's the fight I'm thinking of but I'm not 100%.

Lemos did too, in rnds 2-3 there were times she out scrambled Dern and got on top. First ctrl time came after a knockdown, and then a td , in round 3 as well. Dern did reverse her at one point and then lost the position and was on bottom.

I dont know if loopy has the same physicality, she is smaller, but i can see her winning some top positions.

 

[mkess101]

Lemos did too, in rnds 2-3 there were times she out scrambled Dern and got on top. First ctrl time came after a knockdown, and then a td , in round 3 as well. Dern did reverse her at one point and then lost the position and was on bottom.

I dont know if loopy has the same physicality, she is smaller, but i can see her winning some top positions.

Yeah, although Dern just doesn't mind being on bottom. She wants those scrambles, she feels eventually she'll get to a dominant spot. If she gives up top position, it's not a big deal as she'll start working for a leg and use it to sweep, etc.

It's not like nobody can ever survive (and even end up on top and look good) grappling exchanges with her, there's just a ton of risk in going there. Risk that doesn't exist really in standing with her.

 

[Georges Hefner]

This will be my 8th profitable event in a row

The streak will end if Umar wins

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

dumas-dec
bedoya-dec
dudakeva-dec
vucencic-sub2
gaziev-sub1
yaha-dec
murzahkanov-ko2
alvarez-sub2
godinez-dec
chisea-dec
fig-dec
magomdedmov-dec
nurmagedmov-dec

Sub Vucenic and sub Gaziev?

 

[EndlessCritic]

Haven't taped Vucenic. What's the consensus on his chances?

Brener at +160 here feels wild. He has looked very good in all 4 of his UFC fights to date.

Dern at even feels very wrong. I cap her close to -200 here.

Will fade Dumas all day as a favorite.

Gazziev disappointed against Rozenstruik, but I think he should be a bigger favorite than -200.

Murzakanov has looked relatively flawless. I think he has value at -200.

Fernandes -400 feels way too wide. Currently on Yahya at +3.5pts at +190.

Not sole on the hype train but Shara -200 range is acceptable.

Sandhagen/Umar is going to feel obvious in retrospect. Sandhagen +250 feels like a no brainer.

Bless any degenerate taking a stab on Tony.

 

[Guld]

Haven't taped Vucenic. What's the consensus on his chances?

Brener at +160 here feels wild. He has looked very good in all 4 of his UFC fights to date.

Dern at even feels very wrong. I cap her close to -200 here.

Will fade Dumas all day as a favorite.

Gazziev disappointed against Rozenstruik, but I think he should be a bigger favorite than -200.

Murzakanov has looked relatively flawless. I think he has value at -200.

Fernandes -400 feels way too wide. Currently on Yahya at +3.5pts at +190.

Not sole on the hype train but Shara -200 range is acceptable.

Sandhagen/Umar is going to feel obvious in retrospect. Sandhagen +250 feels like a no brainer.

Bless any degenerate taking a stab on Tony.

Yeah, I agree with that Dern logic/price point. She's currently at -125 and I think I'll grab some of that.

Shara is -250 on my site already, so I'll probably just avoid betting that one at all. I was thinking of taking Michal but I don't know if I trust either guy well enough. Maybe livebet?

I'm with you on Sandhagen. At +250 I gotta go for him.

Despite the odds, I'm also not risking a stab at Tony haha.

 

[mkess101]

I'm usually the Dern shill here haha, and this is dog or pass for me.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Sub Vucenic and sub Gaziev?

Yes

 

[Macaque]

Who’s betting Joel Alvarez at these lines?

In my opinion, Brener is close to 50/50, or even a slight favorite. No clue how you can bet this guard-puller at 1.50.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Who’s betting Joel Alvarez at these lines?

In my opinion, Brener is close to 50/50, or even a slight favorite. No clue how you can bet this guard-puller at 1.50.

yeah Brener can wrestle. Joel is bad off his back, bad getups, bad tdd.

 

[PuertoRican]

yeah Brener can wrestle. Joel is bad off his back, bad getups, bad tdd.

When Joel is on his back, it's the one place he's actually good at in MMA. The running joke is/was that if Joel doesn't get taken down, he can't win the fight because while he has good BJJ, his wrestling and striking aren't good. The win against Thiago Moises is an outlier.

 

[Stat_Collector]

When Joel is on his back, it's the one place he's actually good at in MMA. The running joke is/was that if Joel doesn't get taken down, he can't win the fight because while he has good BJJ, his wrestling and striking aren't good. The win against Thiago Moises is an outlier.

Elves has a lot of subs, with that , possibly a good sub defense, which can turn Joel into a turtle. Joel is good with subs but everything else i said is true. He’s so long but cant create space and explode out to save his life.

 

[PuertoRican]

Elves has a lot of subs, with that , possibly a good sub defense, which can turn Joel into a turtle. Joel is good with subs but everything else i said is true. He’s so long but cant create space and explode out to save his life.

I'm not on either side just yet, and I might pass altogether.

That being said, what I said was correct, and what you originally said was incorrect.

It's a tough card for me pre-fight, and it's also my first card back from summer vacation. I'll pick my spots.

 

[guesswhoseback]

I'm not on either side just yet, and I might pass altogether.

That being said, what I said was correct, and what you originally said was incorrect.

It's a tough card for me pre-fight, and it's also my first card back from summer vacation. I'll pick my spots.

Hey man a few people wanna start up a draftkings sherdog group again r u down?

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'm not on either side just yet, and I might pass altogether.

That being said, what I said was correct, and what you originally said was incorrect.

It's a tough card for me pre-fight, and it's also my first card back from summer vacation. I'll pick my spots.

It doesn't matter about what subjective truth we have on this topic on the term. If he can't submit Elves, he's losing the fight by ctrl time. I'm not here to argue semantics. I did the heavy taping, Elves is better wrestler scrambler, Joel is terrible in most aspects of bottom game bjj, besides subs.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'm on team Sandhagen. Umar stats don't impress me. The more I watch him fight, the more I see he's not Islam or Khabib.

 

[mkess101]

I'm on team Sandhagen. Umar stats don't impress me. The more I watch him fight, the more I see he's not Islam or Khabib.

I actually really think Umar is good. Absolutely he's unproven against higher level competition and we have no clue if he has 5 round cardio in a high paced fight. That said, he shows some similarities with how he controls people on the mat to Khabib, Islam, etc.

But this fight is weird. He's not jumping up a level in competition. He's jumping like 5 levels. Going from Barcelos and Almakhan to a legit top 5 (maybe top 3?) guy like Sandhagen and then making Umar a -300 favorite? Makes no sense.

And I guess that's the concern. We are mostly all sitting here saying how far off the odds are etc, like the books are forcing us to bet Corey. That...I don't love. (Of course I'm still betting Corey haha).

 

[Guld]

I actually really think Umar is good. Absolutely he's unproven against higher level competition and we have no clue if he has 5 round cardio in a high paced fight. That said, he shows some similarities with how he controls people on the mat to Khabib, Islam, etc.

But this fight is weird. He's not jumping up a level in competition. He's jumping like 5 levels. Going from Barcelos and Almakhan to a legit top 5 (maybe top 3?) guy like Sandhagen and then making Umar a -300 favorite? Makes no sense.

And I guess that's the concern. We are mostly all sitting here saying how far off the odds are etc, like the books are forcing us to bet Corey. That...I don't love. (Of course I'm still betting Corey haha).

Agree on all of the points listed.
I wonder how much being an "undefeated Nurmagomedov fighting in Abu Dhabi" factors into the betting line as well.

 

[sonhow]

Im adding to Cory train here but one thing to consider is that even if Umar really is as good as hype says, and he very well may be, is that Cory might actually be by far the most well rounded guy that any member of team Nurmagomedov has faced. At least in ufc-Bellator. Poirier, Oliviera and Gaethje and even Conor are all top fighters but all of them have glaring weaknesses in their game and all have been finished multiple times because of those holes. Meanwhile Cory is in his absolute prime and on a three fight winstreak where he dominated competion that is on level that Umar hasnt beaten yet. He used to be bit of a wild man but recently hes tightened his game so much that its really hard to point out weakness that Umar can easily target or exploit.
In a way if Umar looks as good as the odds indicate Im almost willing to say he may become the most proven one out of the team based on just one fight. Well maybe thats too far but we will see.