UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov

[mkess101]

His first round vs Tuporia was impressive.

I dont think you need to be special to beat Bedoya. Nothing special about Kenan . And williams is a heavy hitter with loopy punches but his defense sucks.

Jai is a technical striker like Mvp, his biggest plague is an average chin. But certain Bedoya will need a ko or bust. Otherwise he gets pointed

I found a play I like on daily fantasy, Jai over 47.5 sig strikes. Bedoya lands and eats a ton of punches and the fight is favored to go the distance so imo this is the way to play it.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I found a play I like on daily fantasy, Jai over 47.5 sig strikes. Bedoya lands and eats a ton of punches and the fight is favored to go the distance so imo this is the way to play it.

Yeah i might end up looking for a prop bet that can cover both ways also.

A lot of ppl seem to not trust Jai. Maybe im overrating Klein or underrating Kenan.


I just keep watching tape back and fourth and see how slow and bad form Rolando throws, almost like he’s slapping the wind and throwing naked kicks.

The dog mentality is on Bedoya, and i guess a lot of ppl think Jai will crack mentally in those later rounds. We’ll see, i think i’ve beat this dead horse already.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I dont know what to make of Loopy/Dern

Mma math says Dern should win because
unlike Loopy , Dern beat Angela and Virna.


But i feel like that is a trap.

Angela looked to have bested Loopy because of her ability to kick her legs, and Loopy being a boxer got exploited in her weak spot, however Dern is not a kicker. She is going to make this into a scrappy boxing and grappling match.

Loopy has a decent high guard boxing stance and covers up well unlike Angela who is more hittable. I think Loopy also failed to beat Angela because she lacks aggressiveness , she is more methodical and counter striker. However this fits well to beating Dern who rushes in and relies on reflex .

I feel like it warrants a complex read , which can be grounds for a pass.

 

[mkess101]

I dont know what to make of Loopy/Dern

Mma math says Dern should win because
unlike Loopy , Dern beat Angela and Virna.


But i feel like that is a trap.

Angela looked to have bested Loopy because of her ability to kick her legs, and Loopy being a boxer got exploited in her weak spot, however Dern is not a kicker. She is going to make this into a scrappy boxing and grappling match.

Loopy has a decent high guard boxing stance and covers up well unlike Angela who is more hittable. I think Loopy also failed to beat Angela because she lacks aggressiveness , she is more methodical and counter striker. However this fits well to beating Dern who rushes in and relies on reflex .

I feel like it warrants a complex read , which can be grounds for a pass.

Honestly there's probably not a better example anywhere of why styles make fights and why you should absolutely throw away Virna vs Dern and Virna vs Loopy.

Virna wanted nothing to do with Dern on the mat, for obvious reasons. She basically had no choice but to strike with her and while Dern is no ace standing, she's better than Virna. Virna wasn't scared of initiating grappling with Loopy at all, so naturally it was a completely different looking fight than with Dern.

Dern is of course brilliant on the mat, but average at best (and maybe that's generous) of getting fights there. Loopy most likely should be able to stuff the TD attempts of Dern and make it a kickboxing match. And I think your read on the standup is more or less accurate. Both likely will likely have their moments.

IMO this is a coin toss fight, so dog or pass at current odds.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Dern is of course brilliant on the mat, but average at best (and maybe that's generous) of getting fights there. Loopy most likely should be able to stuff the TD attempts of Dern and make it a kickboxing match. And I think your read on the standup is more or less accurate. Both likely will likely have their moments.

IMO this is a coin toss fight, so dog or pass at current odds.

Dern actually has a habit of trying to do those desperate judo throws. I can see a scenario where Loopy winds on top of her and controlling her from the top with a superior positional wrestling.

 

[sonhow]

Bedoya looked good vs Khaos but ass vs Kenan who is barely ufc level. Bedoya either was one fight miracle or hes just that inconsistant type. Weight class change the x factor

 

[mkess101]

Dern actually has a habit of trying to do those desperate judo throws. I can see a scenario where Loopy winds on top of her and controlling her from the top with a superior positional wrestling.

Loopy would be wise to just find a way to stand up then. Too much risk messing around with Dern on the mat at all. Yeah **maybe** Loopy gets some control time but also a good chance she gets swept or finds herself desperately defending subs.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Dern is of course brilliant on the mat

Is she really though?

She hasn't come close to submitting anyone in her recent her fights. She had control of Amanda Lemos, who had been submitted by a standing arm triangle a few fights prior, and she still couldn't come close to anything.

It doesn't look like she has been keeping up with her BJJ.

Should a chinny BJJ girl with no takedown game and sloppy striking really be favored over a wrestler with decent boxing? Imo the wrong fighter is favored here.

 

[B.Goetz]

Thoughts on Cory-Umar FGTD -115? What's the most likely scenario for a finish?

 

[mkess101]

Is she really though?

She hasn't come close to submitting anyone in her recent her fights. She had control of Amanda Lemos, who had been submitted by a standing arm triangle a few fights prior, and she still couldn't come close to anything.

It doesn't look like she has been keeping up with her BJJ.

Should a chinny BJJ girl with no takedown game and sloppy striking really be favored over a wrestler with decent boxing? Imo the wrong fighter is favored here.

Yes, she's still brilliant because if you're on the mat with her (I suppose barring it being late in a 5 rounder where she's gassed), you're ONLY defending. I've yet to see anyone mount really any offense against her on the ground. Just defend sweeps and subs. There's very few (if any) girls that willingly want to grapple her. Virna, who's entire game is grappling, avoided it like the plague against Dern. It doesn't mean it's an insta sub if it hits the mat obviously, that's not what MMA is anymore. But she's still arguably the most dangerous grappler in WMMA.

I agree she's a sloppy striker and her TD's are lackluster though. Chinny? She got finished once by strikes, she's eaten a lot of them in a bunch of other fights and kept coming so not sure I can agree with that.

 

[Kazda1]

Dern actually has a habit of trying to do those desperate judo throws. I can see a scenario where Loopy winds on top of her and controlling her from the top with a superior positional wrestling.

I kind of see it the opposite way. Loopy has decent boxing but she's not aggressive with it. Dern has no problem trying to strike but she also has no problem grabbing on to her opponents to attempt to get them down (in whatever weird way she can because she's not very good at getting them down). Seeing as though that's the case, I have to believe someone's gotten in her ear and told her to stop standing when it's not her strength.

IMO Loopy lost not on striking last time out but just on the mere threat of being taken down and submitted. Didn't help that once she got down, she couldn't get up. I'm not saying she stays down against Dern, but I could see her being hesitant to do much against someone so willing to crash the pocket like Dern in an attempt to grab her for control.

 

[Monte Moku]

Thoughts on Cory-Umar FGTD -115? What's the most likely scenario for a finish?

Most likely finish scenarios are Umar winning via rear naked choke (all of his submission wins are via rear naked choke except one, and that was his pro debut) or Cory winning via TKO (most likely with a knee or kick, as he tends to use his hands to set up power shots for his legs). Both scenarios have the highest likelihood in round 1, since that is when both fighters have earned the majority of their finishes. I hope I was able to help!

 

[Guld]

Most likely finish scenarios are Umar winning via rear naked choke (all of his submission wins are via rear naked choke except one, and that was his pro debut) or Cory winning via TKO (most likely with a knee or kick, as he tends to use his hands to set up power shots for his legs). Both scenarios have the highest likelihood in round 1, since that is when both fighters have earned the majority of their finishes. I hope I was able to help!

I agree with this. Sandman also has no problem exploiting elbows and cuts like he did with Song. So that's also a possibility.

I can't see the fight ending early though, it feels like it should at least make it to the championship rounds.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I agree she's a sloppy striker and her TD's are lackluster though. Chinny? She got finished once by strikes, she's eaten a lot of them in a bunch of other fights and kept coming so not sure I can agree with that.

She's been dropped 5 times in her last 2 fights at 115lbs.

If that is not chinny idk what is.

 

[sonhow]

Yes, she's still brilliant because if you're on the mat with her (I suppose barring it being late in a 5 rounder where she's gassed), you're ONLY defending. I've yet to see anyone mount really any offense against her on the ground. Just defend sweeps and subs. There's very few (if any) girls that willingly want to grapple her. Virna, who's entire game is grappling, avoided it like the plague against Dern. It doesn't mean it's an insta sub if it hits the mat obviously, that's not what MMA is anymore. But she's still arguably the most dangerous grappler in WMMA.

I agree she's a sloppy striker and her TD's are lackluster though. Chinny? She got finished once by strikes, she's eaten a lot of them in a bunch of other fights and kept coming so not sure I can agree with that.

I find it interesting that there are still people who measure grappling skills with just submission ability. Like subs are cool and all but you can never be be a good grappler by just going for subs.

 

[StewDogg11]

She's been dropped 5 times in her last 2 fights at 115lbs.

If that is not chinny idk what is.

I think Dern has an above average chin but below average defense. She’s ate punches that would put most girls out.

 

[mkess101]

She's been dropped 5 times in her last 2 fights at 115lbs.

If that is not chinny idk what is.

Fair enough, but if you look at those they're more balance shots (outside vs Andrade of course) vs her being truly hurt.

That said, those knockdowns win rounds for her opponents so they absolutely matter, your point is still valid for sure.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Yes, she's still brilliant because if you're on the mat with her (I suppose barring it being late in a 5 rounder where she's gassed), you're ONLY defending. I've yet to see anyone mount really any offense against her on the ground. Just defend sweeps and subs. There's very few (if any) girls that willingly want to grapple her. Virna, who's entire game is grappling, avoided it like the plague against Dern. It doesn't mean it's an insta sub if it hits the mat obviously, that's not what MMA is anymore. But she's still arguably the most dangerous grappler in WMMA.

I agree she's a sloppy striker and her TD's are lackluster though. Chinny? She got finished once by strikes, she's eaten a lot of them in a bunch of other fights and kept coming so not sure I can agree with that.

there was a 2nd round td and 2 min ctrl time from Virna. I dont expect loopy to score high ctrl but enough to steal a round.

I kind of see it the opposite way. Loopy has decent boxing but she's not aggressive with it. Dern has no problem trying to strike but she also has no problem grabbing on to her opponents to attempt to get them down (in whatever weird way she can because she's not very good at getting them down). Seeing as though that's the case, I have to believe someone's gotten in her ear and told her to stop standing when it's not her strength.

IMO Loopy lost not on striking last time out but just on the mere threat of being taken down and submitted. Didn't help that once she got down, she couldn't get up. I'm not saying she stays down against Dern, but I could see her being hesitant to do much against someone so willing to crash the pocket like Dern in an attempt to grab her for control.

Virna was a more competent wrestler. Just the fact that Virna beat Lemos with grappling where Dern fell short proves it.

Dern wont have that same level of ctrl, and Loopy out struck Virna by small margin.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Vera, Brener, Loopy ,

I think these are the closes in skill gap .

 

[mkess101]

there was a 2nd round td and 2 min ctrl time from Virna. I dont expect loopy to score high ctrl but enough to steal a round.


Virna was a more competent wrestler. Just the fact that Virna beat Lemos with grappling where Dern fell short proves it.

Dern wont have that same level of ctrl, and Loopy out struck Virna by small margin.

Iirc Virna's "control time" was her desperately defending from top and as soon as she had the chance for a clean exit she took it once she realized what she was dealing with. I need to rewatch though, I **think** that's the fight I'm thinking of but I'm not 100%.