UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi

[Stat_Collector]

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi | MMA Event | Tapology

UFC Fight Night takes place Saturday, November 2, 2024 with 14 fights at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. View fight card, video, results, predictions, and news.

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https://www.bestfightodds.com/

 

[Stat_Collector]

Jas dec probably the safest prop in the card.

 

[Thesnake101]

Jas dec probably the safest prop in the card.

I'd Diniz KO is safer. Derrick has always gotten hurt by more technical strikers and his durability has been waning more and more the older he gets.

Romanov and Shore are two dogs that I find interesting. Alex is obese but Nascimiento is not a very dangerous guy, could see Alex imposing his wrestling here and laying on top.

Shore is just a value play. Zalal has looked good since returning, but we know Errens is a very limited striker that didn't have much going for him, and I wonder if Yousef's win over Billy had more to do with Quarantillo being washed rather than Zalal's improvements.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'd Diniz KO is safer. Derrick has always gotten hurt by more technical strikers and his durability has been waning more and more the older he gets.

Romanov and Shore are two dogs that I find interesting. Alex is obese but Nascimiento is not a very dangerous guy, could see Alex imposing his wrestling here and laying on top.

Shore is just a value play. Zalal has looked good since returning, but we know Errens is a very limited striker that didn't have much going for him, and I wonder if Yousef's win over Billy had more to do with Quarantillo being washed rather than Zalal's improvements.

Shore/Zalal

My view is that Zalal is terrible at winning decisions in his track record. His worst matchups are guys with solid and good striking with some tdd at a solid or near solid level.

I dont know how close Shore fits that description. He's well rounded, but also can get put on his back , which Zalal is capable of. But Zalal doesn't have finishing upside, i dont know if he has enough to tap Shore, nor do i believe shore can finish Zalal. Zalal survived Tuporia.

Do I think Shore can win a decision? Yes, and that prop will probably be at 350+ - 400+ but I also believe that Zalal is a bad style matchup for Shore who''s been grounded before. Zalal is a bit flakey, so he's out of the question. So to sum it up, Shore dec is the best option, but i dont like my chances. the ctrl time that Shore gives up, and he's not on par with Woodson, or Choi, but he does have two knockdowns on Timur. but also a split dec with Azure who is very mid.

I dont really have a strong read. Maybe Shore can score a reversal, Ilia called Zalal a white belt, because his bjj transitions are weak, and maybe Shore can capitalize with some sweeps and win on the ground. But Shore was held down by Makwan for 3 mins, that is a big red flag for me.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'd Diniz KO is safer. Derrick has always gotten hurt by more technical strikers and his durability has been waning more and more the older he gets.

Romanov and Shore are two dogs that I find interesting. Alex is obese but Nascimiento is not a very dangerous guy, could see Alex imposing his wrestling here and laying on top.

Shore is just a value play. Zalal has looked good since returning, but we know Errens is a very limited striker that didn't have much going for him, and I wonder if Yousef's win over Billy had more to do with Quarantillo being washed rather than Zalal's improvements.

Diniz could but also Derrick does grapple from time to time, he did with Nascimento and Tai. And look how he survived Almeida.

Diniz has questionable grappling defense and mma experience. I havent seen him under much pressure yet, i felt Karl Williams fight was lucky because Williams admitted he was injured and could not wrestle, but clearly it was fairly easy to wrestle Deniz down in round 3, and looked like a turtle off his back.

 

[Jinx_AA]

Dinis and zalal parlay seem obvious - odds pending

Disagree on jas being obvious … I love my Niagara girl but lipski is much better on the feet and has improved her takedown defense - there’s a path … they’re both dawgs that’ll fight for your money and seems like it’ll be a guaranteed decision fight for sure as both are tough and won’t finish each other

 

[PuertoRican]

I currently have bets on:

• Amir Albazi +130
• Rose Namajunas +105
• Aiemann Zahabi +118
• Victor Henry -105

Looks like a fun card on paper. I won't go big on anything pre-fight since there will be plenty of live bet opportunities.

 

[sonhow]

Romanov a must play at dog odds. He looked good vs Ivanov and losses are to top competion. Every one of those would wreck Nas as well. Does Nas even have a definitive good or even decent win on his record? Splits vs Ilir and Boser are not definitive. Leaves out "dead men" Don Tell "tales" Mayes. Yeah good luck selling that.

 

[Thesnake101]

Romanov a must play at dog odds. He looked good vs Ivanov and losses are to top competion. Every one of those would wreck Nas as well. Does Nas even have a definitive good or even decent win on his record? Splits vs Ilir and Boser are not definitive. Leaves out "dead men" Don Tell "tales" Mayes. Yeah good luck selling that.

Rodrigo's biggest issue here imo is that he's an unathletic grappler. It's why he's gone to decision so often despite being such a big guy, I think he'll pursue the clinch after tasting a big punch from Romanov and then get controlled against the fence for most of the fight.

Only time Rodrigo looked kinda threatening standing was against 1 round fighter Baudot, and that got overturned due to a positive test so go figure. All decision wins since, some with thin margins and a finish loss to Derrick.

Diniz could but also Derrick does grapple from time to time, he did with Nascimento and Tai. And look how he survived Almeida.

Diniz has questionable grappling defense and mma experience. I havent seen him under much pressure yet, i felt Karl Williams fight was lucky because Williams admitted he was injured and could not wrestle, but clearly it was fairly easy to wrestle Deniz down in round 3, and looked like a turtle off his back.

He could, but I feel like relying on Derrick to wrestle is a risky thing. I think they set up this fight to propel Diniz further at the expense of Lewis, and for as long as it stays standing it'll go that way.

Shore/Zalal

My view is that Zalal is terrible at winning decisions in his track record. His worst matchups are guys with solid and good striking with some tdd at a solid or near solid level.

I dont know how close Shore fits that description. He's well rounded, but also can get put on his back , which Zalal is capable of. But Zalal doesn't have finishing upside, i dont know if he has enough to tap Shore, nor do i believe shore can finish Zalal. Zalal survived Tuporia.

Do I think Shore can win a decision? Yes, and that prop will probably be at 350+ - 400+ but I also believe that Zalal is a bad style matchup for Shore who''s been grounded before. Zalal is a bit flakey, so he's out of the question. So to sum it up, Shore dec is the best option, but i dont like my chances. the ctrl time that Shore gives up, and he's not on par with Woodson, or Choi, but he does have two knockdowns on Timur. but also a split dec with Azure who is very mid.

I dont really have a strong read. Maybe Shore can score a reversal, Ilia called Zalal a white belt, because his bjj transitions are weak, and maybe Shore can capitalize with some sweeps and win on the ground. But Shore was held down by Makwan for 3 mins, that is a big red flag for me.

Keep in mind Makwan winning first rounds isn't uncommon for him, I think the fact Shore went on to sub him after that is a good sign that he's able to show urgency when needed. Decision prop does seem like the best play here, and with Shore's underdog status it might hold some good value.

Imo the fight should've been even if anything.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Machado stocks has risen after Parkin's fight, but Ribeiro is tottaly different opponent...
He has KO power and coming for finish.

+ 140 Ribeiro to WIN.

Sidey is like Khryzniak in MMA form, he overwhelms opponents with pressure and pace.

- 170 Sidey to WIN.

 

[sonhow]

Rodrigo's biggest issue here imo is that he's an unathletic grappler. It's why he's gone to decision so often despite being such a big guy, I think he'll pursue the clinch after tasting a big punch from Romanov and then get controlled against the fence for most of the fight.

Only time Rodrigo looked kinda threatening standing was against 1 round fighter Baudot, and that got overturned due to a positive test so go figure. All decision wins since, some with thin margins and a finish loss to Derrick.

He could, but I feel like relying on Derrick to wrestle is a risky thing. I think they set up this fight to propel Diniz further at the expense of Lewis, and for as long as it stays standing it'll go that way.

Keep in mind Makwan winning first rounds isn't uncommon for him, I think the fact Shore went on to sub him after that is a good sign that he's able to show urgency when needed. Decision prop does seem like the best play here, and with Shore's underdog status it might hold some good value.

Imo the fight should've been even if anything.

Not to mention Baudot was kicking his ass before gassing in rd 2.

That Zalal/Shore fight is interesting because I used to be quite high on Shore but hes kinda just beaten the guys hes supposed to so far...I guess this could be a turning point in his career. But lean for me is Zalal tho not sure if Id play juice or not. The year has been one for all the square bets cashing I think there was talk in previous thread.

 

[Thesnake101]

Not to mention Baudot was kicking his ass before gassing in rd 2.

That Zalal/Shore fight is interesting because I used to be quite high on Shore but hes kinda just beaten the guys hes supposed to so far...I guess this could be a turning point in his career. But lean for me is Zalal tho not sure if Id play juice or not. The year has been one for all the square bets cashing I think there was talk in previous thread.

It'd be interesting to look at stats for big upsets this year. Feels like there's been some big upsets regularly for the past few months, Hadley, Despaigne and Philips being the more recent ones.

Think I'll just wait for Shore's decision line and play that. Zalal has never been finished and Shore has only subbed 3 guys in the UFC, 2 of those who never logged a single win in the org.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Dinis and zalal parlay seem obvious - odds pending

Disagree on jas being obvious … I love my Niagara girl but lipski is much better on the feet and has improved her takedown defense - there’s a path … they’re both dawgs that’ll fight for your money and seems like it’ll be a guaranteed decision fight for sure as both are tough and won’t finish each other

Karine took her down 5 of 6 times, Jas is a better wrestler. This is also her home court .

 

[Stat_Collector]

Rodrigo's biggest issue here imo is that he's an unathletic grappler. It's why he's gone to decision so often despite being such a big guy, I think he'll pursue the clinch after tasting a big punch from Romanov and then get controlled against the fence for most of the fight.

Only time Rodrigo looked kinda threatening standing was against 1 round fighter Baudot, and that got overturned due to a positive test so go figure. All decision wins since, some with thin margins and a finish loss to Derrick.

He could, but I feel like relying on Derrick to wrestle is a risky thing. I think they set up this fight to propel Diniz further at the expense of Lewis, and for as long as it stays standing it'll go that way.

Keep in mind Makwan winning first rounds isn't uncommon for him, I think the fact Shore went on to sub him after that is a good sign that he's able to show urgency when needed. Decision prop does seem like the best play here, and with Shore's underdog status it might hold some good value.

Imo the fight should've been even if anything.

I wonder more rather lewis can make the final bell. Diniz got koed in kickboxing , is he really safe from lewis’ power? Lima was a solid win not long ago.

if shore’s dec line is huge, its worth a sprinkle.

 

[Thesnake101]

I wonder more rather lewis can make the final bell. Deniz got koed in kickboxing , is he really safe from lewis’ power? Lima was a solid win not long ago.

KO'd by a high kick from a 6'6 dude with 38 KOs in 58 wins, in the third. Aside from Volkov, Derrick usually got picked apart by better strikers (Hunt, JDS, Gane) and now we've also seen him lose brawls as well (Tuivasa, Pavlovich) I just think Diniz will measure him and kill him with accurate shots. Leg kicks in particular might make things hard for him.

If I were to bet on BB then I'd either go for Derrick by TKO in the second or third. Those props usually have huge odds attached to them.

 

[Stat_Collector]

KO'd by a high kick from a 6'6 dude with 38 KOs in 58 wins, in the third. Aside from Volkov, Derrick usually got picked apart by better strikers (Hunt, JDS, Gane) and now we've also seen him lose brawls as well (Tuivasa, Pavlovich) I just think Diniz will measure him and kill him with accurate shots. Leg kicks in particular might make things hard for him.

If I were to bet on BB then I'd either go for Derrick by TKO in the second or third. Those props usually have huge odds attached to them.

what round are you playing Diniz?

 

[Thesnake101]

what round are you playing Deniz?

I'll have to wait til the odds are out, but leaning towards 1st round for now.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'll have to wait til the odds are out, but leaning towards 1st round for now.

I actually think this could go the distance for 3 reasons.

Lewis may win round 1 with grappling if he leg sweeps Diniz

Lewis' chin is on par with Karl Williams. Remember Lewis went to distance with Ngannou.

I don't rate Diniz power in the same level as Tai, Sergei, and Gane took him to round 3. Lewis has scary enough power to make Diniz hesitant to engage.

This is Diniz vs a fat bum that took him almost 4:17 minutes



I think a decision or rnd 3 stoppage for Diniz is more likely, i do believe Lewis is washed, he took very long to ko Nascimento, where the old Lewis koes him in round 1.

 

[Thesnake101]

Lewis' chin is on par with Karl Williams. Remember Lewis went to distance with Ngannou.

We haven't seen Williams get put out yet, so I can't gauge his chin accurately right now. The Ngannou result is irrelevant for me because they landed a combined 31 significant strikes across 3 rounds, but more importantly Derrick would go on to get stopped by JDS in 2 rounds after that in what would be Junior's last UFC win.

I don't rate Diniz power in the same level as Tai, Sergei, and Gane took him to round 3. Lewis has scary enough power to make Diniz hesitant to engage.

Gane is a point fighter, and usually very risk adverse, it going three rounds was not a shocking thing and most people even thought Cyril would pick up a decision there as opposed to a finish. As far as Tai having more power than Diniz, I don't know about that - Tai never stopped anyone particularly durable in the UFC and even went the distance with Arlovski. Diniz for his part has 15 KO's in 22 KB wins, which is a pretty high rate for the sport, with the most impressive stoppage being a first round stoppage over a pretty solid Croatian vet and Cro Cop sparring partner, Igor Jurkovic who was only stopped twice as a pro.



I think Jhonata would sooner fight fire with fire than end up in a tentative striking match truth be told. More importantly Derrick has only lost by decision once in the UFC, he's been stopped in his other 9 losses with 7 of them being via strikes. He's not a durable guy, even in some of his wins, when he was younger and less battle worn, he got hurt and had to battle back. Nowadays he's more of a flake.

For my money Derrick is too predictable on the feet to catch Diniz, it's why a Junior who was already chinny by that point was able to pick him apart, it's also why Gane pitched a shutout. I wouldn't dissuade you from playing the decision line because it'll most likely be incredibly juiced, but at that point I'd just go with Derrick by decision. Diniz was a KO artist in KB, and he's more dangerous in MMA now.

 

[Stat_Collector]

We haven't seen Williams get put out yet, so I can't gauge his chin accurately right now. The Ngannou result is irrelevant for me because they landed a combined 31 significant strikes across 3 rounds, but more importantly Derrick would go on to get stopped by JDS in 2 rounds after that in what would be Junior's last UFC win.

Gane is a point fighter, and usually very risk adverse, it going three rounds was not a shocking thing and most people even thought Cyril would pick up a decision there as opposed to a finish. As far as Tai having more power than Diniz, I don't know about that - Tai never stopped anyone particularly durable in the UFC and even went the distance with Arlovski. Diniz for his part has 15 KO's in 22 KB wins, which is a pretty high rate for the sport, with the most impressive stoppage being a first round stoppage over a pretty solid Croatian vet and Cro Cop sparring partner, Igor Jurkovic who was only stopped twice as a pro.



I think Jhonata would sooner fight fire with fire than end up in a tentative striking match truth be told. More importantly Derrick has only lost by decision once in the UFC, he's been stopped in his other 9 losses with 7 of them being via strikes. He's not a durable guy, even in some of his wins, when he was younger and less battle worn, he got hurt and had to battle back. Nowadays he's more of a flake.

For my money Derrick is too predictable on the feet to catch Diniz, it's why a Junior who was already chinny by that point was able to pick him apart, it's also why Gane pitched a shutout. I wouldn't dissuade you from playing the decision line because it'll most likely be incredibly juiced, but at that point I'd just go with Derrick by decision. Diniz was a KO artist in KB, and he's more dangerous in MMA now.

Against the best competition he's faced excluding lower level kick boxing, majority fights are going the distance. Igor was also a light heavyweight who fights on the inside and tried to fight agressively on the inside against a hw, Lewis is a big natural 260lb heavyweight.





in regards to Tai, by the time he koed Lewis, he had already gathered several ko1 finishes against more season mma opponents. Diniz has only koed bottom of the barrow cans, and that fight above was a 11-7 bum that nearly made round 2, and he quit from exhaustion. Arlovski has a decent outside fighting style, i think the ability to fight with the jab saved him from tai being able to unload short hooks.



I agree with you that Lewis has only lost 3 dec, and ko loss is his likely outcome, that's why i think Diniz will ko him maybe round 3 or hits the score card. Diniz biggest problem is that he makes himself hittable in those close pockets, in Williams fight he gave him a bloody nose.

I think Lewis will have moments where he makes Diniz back up, but I see Diniz breaking down Lewis during the course of the fight, and getting him out there late.