Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Card, Nov 1, 2021.
I parlayed him at -550 and I consider myself lucky lol
thought Khaos Pereira ITD was a lock...
Thought so also until I noticed that Pereira has completely changed his style of fighting in the past 2-3 fights.
Talk me out of a 10 unit bet on max ITD at -110...
- Max hasn't had a "real" finish (non doctor's stoppage) since Aldo 2 in December 2017 nearly 4 years ago
- Max didn't stop Calvin Kattar despite landing a record breaking number of strikes
- Max didn't finish old Frankie Edgar
- Yair has only been stopped by doctor's stoppage, but that was vicious Frankie ground and pound. He seems pretty tough and won't fold easily. If you think Max may have to rely on a doctor's stoppage to cash the ITD bet, it's probably not worth it.
- Yair has been away for a long time, ring rust may be a factor but he also may have re-tooled his game and improved a bit similar to what Ortega did when he returned to fight Korean Zombie.
Personally I'd wait for more props to come out, I'd rather have Max rds 4 / 5 / decision if it comes out around -150 / -160 odds or so.
I could counter most of these but I wont haha
Please do lol! If you think Yair will get dusted in the first 3 rounds I'd like to hear the reasoning
Rothwell is one of my most comfortable plays on this card.
De Lima just isn't that good. He's been bouncing around from promotion to promotion since 2009, and has no clear strengths.
His fight versus Maurice was a pick'em, and Maurice was one of the worst HW's we've seen in the UFC in a while.
Rothwell, although 40, is still game. Yeah he had a close fight with OSP, but OSP is levels above De Lima. He's also a blown up LHW, like OSP.
Rothwell still has a good chin, good pressure, and is relatively well rounded for the HW division.
His only losses in the past few years are to fighters simply better than De Lima.
Tybura, Arlovski, and Blagoy would all wipe the floor with him. Tybura would finish him ITD, Arlovski would win an easy striking battle, and Blagoy would probably KO him.
Rothwell should win ITD here relatively easily.
Alrighty, il try to address all the dot points in a paragraph of text.
Dr.Stopages are real stoppages. It's not a cut stoppage or some freak occurrence. When Max gets a Dr.S its because he has unloaded so much punishment to his opponent that everyone is concerned for their health. If the opponent does not have some ungodly durability like Kattar and Ortega ( proven in Volk title fight as well ), they get Koed for 'real'. Also if Herb is not reffing the Kattar fight its over in round 3. Max's style changed briefly after the Proier fight. He was consistently tagged and wobbled for the whole fight. He still hurt Proier in that fight which again is insane, it was up a weight class and Proier is super durable. After that he had 2 weird low-volume fights against Edgar and Volk which lost him the title. After that he stopped sparing in camp and was styling on Volk. Its obvious he was scared to get hit after what Proier did to him and the wars in the gym weren't helping. Hes back to the old Max now, I noticed this style change when taping shit loads of his fights for Kattar fight. The old Max easily finishes Edgar within 3.
Yair does seem somewhat tough but he was getting tagged by Zombie, its another thing when you are having a significant striker record broken on your face for 3 rounds straight. Even if you are super durable like Ortega, once the eyes start sweling, orbitals start getting broken, cuts etc the Drs Have no choice.
Jung hits hard and Rodriguez was taking those shots all fight then found the finish with a wild spinning kick so he has some serious durability. Holloway doesn't pose the same fast TKO threat so Rodriguez might not be on his back foot the whole time. Kick range isn't great for Holloway and that's Rodriguez's bread and butter. Also, Rodriguez could clinch up and go for takedowns like he did against Stephens. I doubt he lasts, but 2 years off at under 30 could make for some big changes in his abilities while letting his brain recover a bit. Maybe a 6-7 unit bet is more appropriate.
EDIT: Wasn't a spinning back kick, @mkess101 corrected me and it was a weird back elbow.
Wasn't a spinning kick that he KO'd Korean Zombie with, it was that crazy upward angled elbow that he threw behind his back. Maybe the most unique fight ending strike in UFC history.
KZ was definitely beating Yair up, but the volume Max puts on guys is way different.
It's hard to tell if it goes the distance,but the over 2,5 is ok.Yair's got a mexican chin and can take a beating,unless he's bloddied open after two it should pass.
Thanks for that. Don't know why I thought it was a kick. Yeah, his volume is intense, but he's not finishing guys lately especially if he's taking leg kicks. I don't think Rodriguez makes it to the bell, but he's very durable. There's always the Herb Dean effect so maybe it will be another "oops went long" kind of fight. Over 3.5 is kind of risky, under 4.5 is safe, over 1.5 is safe and over 2.5 should be safe. I do like over 3.5 even though that's just past when Holloway usually finishes.
I think Max rds 3-5 finish make sense depending on odds.
Nchukwuzu all day
Da un jung every other day
Rothwell/DeLima DNGTD at -163 seems pretty good given their track records and age
I was "lucky" to get Max on a parlay at -550 haha. I combo'd him with Moreno over Fig, and Gane over Lewis. It won't be until January, but those were the most confident bets I could come up with haha.
Also, I put a medium bet on Max stopping Yair. I got it at +120.
What’s your prop bet on that?
Only worry is that if Ben loses, then it might be due to Rogerio going full NCAA again.
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