UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Rodriguez

Rothwell/DeLima DNGTD at -163 seems pretty good given their track records and age

Should hit, but we all thought that about Gaethje/Chandler and this is a really bad 265 fight.

Only worry is that if Ben loses, then it might be due to Rogerio going full NCAA again.

Might just be a guillotine finish for Rothwell there. If Rothwell has fallen off even more then it could be a lousy split dec with a lot of hugging just like the OSP fight.
 
I've never been high on Rothwell, but De Lima just ain't it boys.

Pre usada, back at 205 when he had some discipline, he was okay. He had power for the division, and explosiveness.

He's a blown up HW like Villante. Every fight he's had @ HW, he has weighed more and more. And he's not putting on muscle, it's just one of those, "well hey, now that I'm a HW I can eat a lot".

If he was like 240 consistently, it would be a different story. But look up his past weigh-ins, he consistently gained weight until he hit the HW limit last fight.

He took chain smoking Maurice Greene to a decision, I just fail to see how he gets it done here.

He slows down in every fight, so if you are brave enough to play him, play his KO line, as that's his only PTV.
 
Only worry is that if Ben loses, then it might be due to Rogerio going full NCAA again.

He doesn't have the cardio to keep a man the size of Rothwell down for even 2 rounds.

Greene was what, 235? And one of the worst HW's we've seen in the UFC in a long time.

Ben cuts to 265, has BJJ far superior to Greene, and a physicality advantage Greene didn't have either. De Lima is ko1 or bust imo
 
Should hit, but we all thought that about Gaethje/Chandler and this is a really bad 265 fight.



Might just be a guillotine finish for Rothwell there. If Rothwell has fallen off even more then it could be a lousy split dec with a lot of hugging just like the OSP fight.
Definitely possible, but I’m mostly chalking that last fight up to Maurice Greene’s incompetence.
He doesn't have the cardio to keep a man the size of Rothwell down for even 2 rounds.

Greene was what, 235? And one of the worst HW's we've seen in the UFC in a long time.

Ben cuts to 265, has BJJ far superior to Greene, and a physicality advantage Greene didn't have either. De Lima is ko1 or bust imo
You guys are forgetting that the Greene fight wasn't the first time de Lima flexed his top game, he did the same to Wieczorek who I think is better than Greene in terms of ground work.

That's not to say that I'm giving Pezao much of a shot, just that perhaps we should exercise some caution in betting on a shitty HW fight.
 
He doesn't have the cardio to keep a man the size of Rothwell down for even 2 rounds.

Greene was what, 235? And one of the worst HW's we've seen in the UFC in a long time.

Ben cuts to 265, has BJJ far superior to Greene, and a physicality advantage Greene didn't have either. De Lima is ko1 or bust imo

I disagree I betting rothwell but if he does lose I think de lima wins by dec
 
Does anyone know about Daukaus's black belt? Dolidze is a Fila (lol) grappling world champ and regional ADCC winner so his ground game should be his strong suit. On paper it looks like he survives the subs and probably won't get his own, but he might have an edge there.
 
Does anyone know about Daukaus's black belt? Dolidze is a Fila (lol) grappling world champ and regional ADCC winner so his ground game should be his strong suit. On paper it looks like he survives the subs and probably won't get his own, but he might have an edge there.
doesn't matter, fight's cancelled
 
Does anyone know about Daukaus's black belt? Dolidze is a Fila (lol) grappling world champ and regional ADCC winner so his ground game should be his strong suit. On paper it looks like he survives the subs and probably won't get his own, but he might have an edge there.
The John Allan fight is a good measuring point for his grappling, I think that, and the Giles fight, are probably what I'd look at in terms of footage for Dolidze to get a better grasp of his skills.

Sucks Daukaus had another fight cancelled. Wonder if they'll just chuck him in an event soonish or make the Holland fight again.
 
Think there’s a pretty good chance jung beats the brakes off of Kennedy
 
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2c on this card:

Jojua/Casey: Won't spend too much on this, should be a pass. Casey should win, could be a finish could be a DEC. Jojua is young shes improving, Casey is getting old and has shite TDD. Jojua has decent sub-defense on top, but its WMMA. Who knows.

Baeza/Khaos: Dog or pass for me, but odds aren't wide enough for me to play Khaos. He's super durable throws more volume and hits like a truck. Baeza is very technical but can't fight backward. He has a high guard and no head movement. He also slows down later. Khaos wins rounds and fights by blitzing forward with big hooks. Baeza could use his black belt again, it's hard to know. If the odds were wider I would hit the dog but yea pass.

Calvilo/Lee: Lee still has the same hole in her game with TDD and low IQ. It's what lost her fights against Calderwood, Murphy and Roxy. Even that Montana fight she got taken down so many times and Montanas wrestling is overrated. Shes lucky Montanas face shows damage more than pretty much any fighter in the UFC. Lee does have a good getup game, but I can't back a fighter who can give up takedowns at any point against a fighter who will look for them in the fight. She has the reach advantage and more output but Calvilos boxing is pretty serviceable and she's tough. Calvilo is also great at catching kicks and Lee still spams naked ones in all her fights. I got Calvilo at dog odds and hedging with some Lee DEC.

Moises/Alvarez: Alvarez has cost me some money in the past. He has no TDD and gets most of his wins from the bottom. He is huge for LW. Stands at 6'3 with a massive reach, throws everything at 100% and it makes people uncomfortable standing. He submitted Duffy and Yakovlev but I think Moises could be the one to survive and grind him out. Moises has great wrestling, he has been known to implement a grappling game plan over 3 rounds. He even took down Makachev twice which is nuts. Was going to hit Moises DEC but the odds aren't great, and I still have questions about Alvarez. Don't think Moises warrants that line either even though he is making improvements.

Song/Arce: Think this is going to be a very close standup affair. Song has the power, speed, and athletism advantage but I think Arces technical boxing is way better. I still feel Songs game is a bit green. He had a decent game plan to circle and pick away at Kenny for 3 rounds and it still went to a split decision. Arce has a sharp jab, great head movement and has a good defence in the pocket. He also has a solid left hook counter after slipping the punch. His output could be a little bit better, Song might steal rounds with eye-catching shots. Arce has decent clinch takedown and is great at getting to the back, but Song is hard to hold down and has nice scrambles back to his feet. All of Arces UFC fights have been at FW, and honestly, he could have been 6-0 with a bit of luck. Now at BW he won't be as small and looked great against Ewell. Its dog or pass for me at these odds.

Spencer/Letson: Shitshow fight. Dog or pass, Letson ain't finishing Spencer if Cyborg and Nunes couldn't so Letson by DEC will give you better odds. Not sure if I will hit it, apparently Letson is a brown belt now but in her recent fights she always had a bonehead mistake in her or ways to give up a takedown. She could have made improvements apparently she's training smarter now, maybe a sprinkles on the day if I'm doing aight.

Rothwell/Lima: I thought I would be on Rothwell here but after tape, I can't touch it at these odds. Ben is going to be a human punching bag for the first round, his knee might get blown apart with how heavy he is on his lead leg. He has become very slow and unathletic at his age, I remember backing him against Tybura and watching him fall over when he tried to throw a head kick lol.
Lima impressed me with his TDD against Romanov, and also how he exploded up to his feet after getting blast doubled at the start. Ben ain't blast doubling anyone. I can't get the Sosoli fight out of my head, iron chinned plodder coming forward and getting cracked constantly until he eventually fell. Rothwell will slowly plod into the danger, he might survive and Homer Simpson Lima like a lot of people are predicting but I will rather live bet it than lay my money on the table to find out. In some crazy world I can even see Lima edging a 3 round sloppy DEC where neither fighter can get the TD but Lima has the speed and power to edge it.
 
2c on this card:

Jojua/Casey: Won't spend too much on this, should be a pass. Casey should win, could be a finish could be a DEC. Jojua is young shes improving, Casey is getting old and has shite TDD. Jojua has decent sub-defense on top, but its WMMA. Who knows.

Baeza/Khaos: Dog or pass for me, but odds aren't wide enough for me to play Khaos. He's super durable throws more volume and hits like a truck. Baeza is very technical but can't fight backward. He has a high guard and no head movement. He also slows down later. Khaos wins rounds and fights by blitzing forward with big hooks. Baeza could use his black belt again, it's hard to know. If the odds were wider I would hit the dog but yea pass.

Calvilo/Lee: Lee still has the same hole in her game with TDD and low IQ. It's what lost her fights against Calderwood, Murphy and Roxy. Even that Montana fight she got taken down so many times and Montanas wrestling is overrated. Shes lucky Montanas face shows damage more than pretty much any fighter in the UFC. Lee does have a good getup game, but I can't back a fighter who can give up takedowns at any point against a fighter who will look for them in the fight. She has the reach advantage and more output but Calvilos boxing is pretty serviceable and she's tough. Calvilo is also great at catching kicks and Lee still spams naked ones in all her fights. I got Calvilo at dog odds and hedging with some Lee DEC.

Moises/Alvarez: Alvarez has cost me some money in the past. He has no TDD and gets most of his wins from the bottom. He is huge for LW. Stands at 6'3 with a massive reach, throws everything at 100% and it makes people uncomfortable standing. He submitted Duffy and Yakovlev but I think Moises could be the one to survive and grind him out. Moises has great wrestling, he has been known to implement a grappling game plan over 3 rounds. He even took down Makachev twice which is nuts. Was going to hit Moises DEC but the odds aren't great, and I still have questions about Alvarez. Don't think Moises warrants that line either even though he is making improvements.

Song/Arce: Think this is going to be a very close standup affair. Song has the power, speed, and athletism advantage but I think Arces technical boxing is way better. I still feel Songs game is a bit green. He had a decent game plan to circle and pick away at Kenny for 3 rounds and it still went to a split decision. Arce has a sharp jab, great head movement and has a good defence in the pocket. He also has a solid left hook counter after slipping the punch. His output could be a little bit better, Song might steal rounds with eye-catching shots. Arce has decent clinch takedown and is great at getting to the back, but Song is hard to hold down and has nice scrambles back to his feet. All of Arces UFC fights have been at FW, and honestly, he could have been 6-0 with a bit of luck. Now at BW he won't be as small and looked great against Ewell. Its dog or pass for me at these odds.

Spencer/Letson: Shitshow fight. Dog or pass, Letson ain't finishing Spencer if Cyborg and Nunes couldn't so Letson by DEC will give you better odds. Not sure if I will hit it, apparently Letson is a brown belt now but in her recent fights she always had a bonehead mistake in her or ways to give up a takedown. She could have made improvements apparently she's training smarter now, maybe a sprinkles on the day if I'm doing aight.

Rothwell/Lima: I thought I would be on Rothwell here but after tape, I can't touch it at these odds. Ben is going to be a human punching bag for the first round, his knee might get blown apart with how heavy he is on his lead leg. He has become very slow and unathletic at his age, I remember backing him against Tybura and watching him fall over when he tried to throw a head kick lol.
Lima impressed me with his TDD against Romanov, and also how he exploded up to his feet after getting blast doubled at the start. Ben ain't blast doubling anyone. I can't get the Sosoli fight out of my head, iron chinned plodder coming forward and getting cracked constantly until he eventually fell. Rothwell will slowly plod into the danger, he might survive and Homer Simpson Lima like a lot of people are predicting but I will rather live bet it than lay my money on the table to find out. In some crazy world I can even see Lima edging a 3 round sloppy DEC where neither fighter can get the TD but Lima has the speed and power to edge it.
Im high on ben , Lima short frame keeps ben in the safe zone, I like ben's sub prop. Lima is in perfect height to get guillotined.
 
I just found out about "Banker Bets".
I really wish I had known about these earlier haha
 
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