UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Rodriguez
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Oh I'm thinking of Brendan Allen, I'm fucking dumb.
Need to tape Brady more, legit thought he was Allen for some reason.
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Yeah if you're playing Yair, you have to play him by KO.
Max has taken some of the most significant strikes in the UFC. His chin will go at some point, I don't think Yair is the one to crack it though.
But if you're betting on Yair, you're basically betting on a lucky KO.
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I think Arce might be the right side instead of my early read on Yadong. Could be a close split and I don't want to take any chances. The over at -200 is a little steep, but Yadong has a solid chin and decent cardio. Arce has also shown a pretty good chin with good recovery so I doubt he gets TKO'd. Arce circles out really well and Yadong will probably be the one to go to the clinch. Yadong handled southpaw Kenney pretty well, but Arce's boxing is a different level. I thought Yadong's speed and power combined with his volume would be enough, but Arce's footwork and angles will make a huge difference. Yadong camps at Alpha Male so I doubt this hits the mat and he's working with a pro boxer so this might be a close one. Arce DEC has some value.
Dolidze is a little chinny, but Daukaus hasn't finished anyone by TKO. Dolidze was prepping for Anders so I imagine it was a clinch and evade gameplan and Daukaus was prepping for Holland so a clinch and takedown gameplan. Hard to see them changing that this late. Daukaus is gonna be the smaller guy and I think the grappling will be pretty neutral. Doubt a sub from either unless Daukaus gets a club and sub. Daukaus is pretty tough so I doubt he gets finished by TKO despite being the smaller guy. Could be a sweat if it's a hug fest. FGTD and over 2.5 at -185 seem ok and better than playing Daukaus ML. Daukaus DEC looks like the right prop. I think Dolidze ML has value just like Dolidze DEC.
There isn't a lot of tape on Alvarez's striking and Moises just isn't great there, but he's faster and decent overall. I just don't know how well Moises will deal with the reach and speed of the kicks. Moises can definitely grind it out, but his takedowns are just fast with almost no set up strikes. Maybe he'll catch a kick and get it down. If he clinches up he'll probably get it down or at least control it against the cage for a bit. Moises held up against Hernandez so I doubt he gets TKO'd. The value is on Alvarez, but I don't think he wins this. The first round will say a lot about the grappling so maybe a live bet situation. Doubting a SUB from either, but those long legs may pose a triangle risk for a bit. Moises DEC seems likely as he's not a huge TKO threat, but I don't know if his gnp is strong enough to finish; I doubt it. Over 2.5 at -185 seems fairly safe just like FGTD.
I could never bet Rothwell. He looked so old against Tybura and faded so hard that I could never lay a penny on him. Easy pass, but I think he gets the win.
Lee is obviously a much better striker with the height and reach edge, but she's pretty stationary and likes to circle left, hide behind her jab then follow with 1-3 shots usually ending in a leg kick. Calvillo is pretty good at getting fights down and I think she can grind it out, but she's small. Really doubt a TKO from either as Calvillo will only pose a threat with her gnp and Lee should be able to push her off or stand; I doubt Calvillo gets to mount. I'm not sure if Lee poses a SUB threat as I don't think she'll want to play off her back for long. Calvillo probably won't get a SUB here either. Maybe @PolarBearPaulVarelans or someone else who's good with WMMA can weigh in on this one, but I think the over 2.5 is safe despite being -300. Calvillo DEC or Lee DEC seem like the best options and maybe FGTD.
I think Baeza is better than Williams everywhere. He's faster with his strikes and has the low kicks with better BJJ and takedowns. I'm a little worried about Williams TKO. I really want to bet Baeza here, but his chin is a concern. Brown rocked him and Williams can charge forward with punches that can finish. Baeza tends to move straight back so he could get caught. The under 2.5 at -120 is tempting. FGTD at +125 is also tempting, but Baeza DEC at +220 seems better. Williams seems like a step down, but his wins over Alhassan and Morono are convincing that he has a legit puncher's chance.
Jojua/Casey is a weird fight. Casey isn't that good and I'm not sold on Jojua. Jojua should be the better striker and may be the better wrestler, but she doesn't have finishing power. Casey isn't a great wrestler and her striking power is limited. Both have a lot of wins by armbar, but I'm not seeing much of a SUB finish threat from either. Casey seems like she's on a decline and was never great to begin with so maybe it's a builder fight for Jojua? Definitely dog or pass. Jojua DEC looks tempting and the over 2.5 at -195 is surprisingly low for WMMA.
For Brady/Chiesa, it looks like whoever gets to top control will win that one. Chiesa is the value side, but Brady seems to have an edge just about everywhere except the offensive wrestling which I think goes either way. Chiesa DEC is the only play I'd make on him and only if it's +180 or higher.
Dolidze is a little chinny, but Daukaus hasn't finished anyone by TKO. Dolidze was prepping for Anders so I imagine it was a clinch and evade gameplan and Daukaus was prepping for Holland so a clinch and takedown gameplan. Hard to see them changing that this late. Daukaus is gonna be the smaller guy and I think the grappling will be pretty neutral. Doubt a sub from either unless Daukaus gets a club and sub. Daukaus is pretty tough so I doubt he gets finished by TKO despite being the smaller guy. Could be a sweat if it's a hug fest. FGTD and over 2.5 at -185 seem ok and better than playing Daukaus ML. Daukaus DEC looks like the right prop. I think Dolidze ML has value just like Dolidze DEC.
There isn't a lot of tape on Alvarez's striking and Moises just isn't great there, but he's faster and decent overall. I just don't know how well Moises will deal with the reach and speed of the kicks. Moises can definitely grind it out, but his takedowns are just fast with almost no set up strikes. Maybe he'll catch a kick and get it down. If he clinches up he'll probably get it down or at least control it against the cage for a bit. Moises held up against Hernandez so I doubt he gets TKO'd. The value is on Alvarez, but I don't think he wins this. The first round will say a lot about the grappling so maybe a live bet situation. Doubting a SUB from either, but those long legs may pose a triangle risk for a bit. Moises DEC seems likely as he's not a huge TKO threat, but I don't know if his gnp is strong enough to finish; I doubt it. Over 2.5 at -185 seems fairly safe just like FGTD.
I could never bet Rothwell. He looked so old against Tybura and faded so hard that I could never lay a penny on him. Easy pass, but I think he gets the win.
Lee is obviously a much better striker with the height and reach edge, but she's pretty stationary and likes to circle left, hide behind her jab then follow with 1-3 shots usually ending in a leg kick. Calvillo is pretty good at getting fights down and I think she can grind it out, but she's small. Really doubt a TKO from either as Calvillo will only pose a threat with her gnp and Lee should be able to push her off or stand; I doubt Calvillo gets to mount. I'm not sure if Lee poses a SUB threat as I don't think she'll want to play off her back for long. Calvillo probably won't get a SUB here either. Maybe @PolarBearPaulVarelans or someone else who's good with WMMA can weigh in on this one, but I think the over 2.5 is safe despite being -300. Calvillo DEC or Lee DEC seem like the best options and maybe FGTD.
I think Baeza is better than Williams everywhere. He's faster with his strikes and has the low kicks with better BJJ and takedowns. I'm a little worried about Williams TKO. I really want to bet Baeza here, but his chin is a concern. Brown rocked him and Williams can charge forward with punches that can finish. Baeza tends to move straight back so he could get caught. The under 2.5 at -120 is tempting. FGTD at +125 is also tempting, but Baeza DEC at +220 seems better. Williams seems like a step down, but his wins over Alhassan and Morono are convincing that he has a legit puncher's chance.
Jojua/Casey is a weird fight. Casey isn't that good and I'm not sold on Jojua. Jojua should be the better striker and may be the better wrestler, but she doesn't have finishing power. Casey isn't a great wrestler and her striking power is limited. Both have a lot of wins by armbar, but I'm not seeing much of a SUB finish threat from either. Casey seems like she's on a decline and was never great to begin with so maybe it's a builder fight for Jojua? Definitely dog or pass. Jojua DEC looks tempting and the over 2.5 at -195 is surprisingly low for WMMA.
For Brady/Chiesa, it looks like whoever gets to top control will win that one. Chiesa is the value side, but Brady seems to have an edge just about everywhere except the offensive wrestling which I think goes either way. Chiesa DEC is the only play I'd make on him and only if it's +180 or higher.
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Playing dolidze +190
shouid be at even odds
btw Brady vs Cheisa isn’t on this card
shouid be at even odds
btw Brady vs Cheisa isn’t on this card
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Who the fuck is laying down money on Diakiese as a favorite? How many times one guy needs to let down everyone until people realize he is just not good.
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Also playing Anglin +250
no idea what marks are laying -300 on Woodson
probably the same juice lords betting Casey at -200
no idea what marks are laying -300 on Woodson
probably the same juice lords betting Casey at -200
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To be fair, isn't Jouja pretty much a hail mary gal? Not putting cash on Casey, but I can see why she'd be so favored.
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She got bet up to -200
i don’t think much of either girl. I sure didn’t think Casey was value at -150. Passed on that
I am surprised every week by who juice lords want to bet on
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likikg baeza -140 and love max but will
Wait to play the round 4,5 or dec at much better odds. Mad I didn’t pull the trigger on the ml when it was -330
Wait to play the round 4,5 or dec at much better odds. Mad I didn’t pull the trigger on the ml when it was -330
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Maybe it's just the fighters on the card, but I'm just not into the ML's for this event. Props just came out on Bet365 for me.
Baeza by KO/SUB (+225)
Rothwell by KO/SUB (+240)
Daukaus by KO/Sub (+250)
Going to do individual bets for each and roll them all into a degen parlay just for fun. If one of the three cashes, I'll break even. Any more than that and it's profit.
Rothwell by KO/SUB seems like the easiest one to me. Yeah he's 40 and it's Heavyweight, but he doesn't get finished easily and he knows his way around submissions, I think he taps the very submittable De Lima in R1.
Baeza/Williams should be interesting, both talented strikers obviously but I was really impressed by Baeza in the Ponzinibbio fight. Hopefully the damage he took didn't take away his chin, if he stays smart I think he finishes Williams in R2.
Dolidze just hasn't looked like much to me. Maybe he's able to ground Daukaus with his wrestling at points, but I would put more faith in Daukaus' scrambling and submission game to turn the tide. Nothing about Dolidze's stand up has impressed me to this point, and with Daukaus training at the same camp as his brother I expect his boxing to keep improving fight over fight. Daukaus grabs a neck in R2.
Baeza by KO/SUB (+225)
Rothwell by KO/SUB (+240)
Daukaus by KO/Sub (+250)
Going to do individual bets for each and roll them all into a degen parlay just for fun. If one of the three cashes, I'll break even. Any more than that and it's profit.
Rothwell by KO/SUB seems like the easiest one to me. Yeah he's 40 and it's Heavyweight, but he doesn't get finished easily and he knows his way around submissions, I think he taps the very submittable De Lima in R1.
Baeza/Williams should be interesting, both talented strikers obviously but I was really impressed by Baeza in the Ponzinibbio fight. Hopefully the damage he took didn't take away his chin, if he stays smart I think he finishes Williams in R2.
Dolidze just hasn't looked like much to me. Maybe he's able to ground Daukaus with his wrestling at points, but I would put more faith in Daukaus' scrambling and submission game to turn the tide. Nothing about Dolidze's stand up has impressed me to this point, and with Daukaus training at the same camp as his brother I expect his boxing to keep improving fight over fight. Daukaus grabs a neck in R2.
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I'm not sure how anyone can have confidence in De Lima.
Just looked up his breakdown, and I was surprised to see his last 10 have alternated win/loss, and all five losses are by submission. Last match was a win..... "due" for a loss.. .by sub?
Rothwell is old and hasn't been KO'd in ages. Similar to Arlovski that he just keeps on chugging along, with many thinking he'll lose, but split his last six. And all decision losses. And has wins by submission.
I'll definitely take some Rothwell ML and sub line, like someone above said as well.
Just looked up his breakdown, and I was surprised to see his last 10 have alternated win/loss, and all five losses are by submission. Last match was a win..... "due" for a loss.. .by sub?
Rothwell is old and hasn't been KO'd in ages. Similar to Arlovski that he just keeps on chugging along, with many thinking he'll lose, but split his last six. And all decision losses. And has wins by submission.
I'll definitely take some Rothwell ML and sub line, like someone above said as well.
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What makes him unreliable, being older and whatever else? 3-3 in last six, and 3-1 in last 4. Age 40 vs 36 for de Lima.
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He almost lost to osp at heavyweight, nearly knocked out.
He was getting beat down by Stefan Struve before kicking him in the balls 100 times
and those are the only two fights he’s won besides Barnett since 2016, when he coincidentally beat another guy named Barnett by submission no less
He’s slow, plodding, low volume and now he has bad cardio as well.
Serious regression. I’m only interested in fading him at this point no way I’m paying chalk for a bargain bin fighter
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In this instance he's going against someone who's also fade material though. Since moving up de Lima has mostly leaned on his mediocre wrestling against guys who are too keen on playing the guard game, or only have low-percentage moves in their repertoire. He did get a finish over Sosoli, I suppose, but aside from that the most he's shown on the feet was him dropping Struve early and then doing nothing.
Bonus: He's not won consecutive outings since 2014, when he came off from TUF Brazil.
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Time to start looking closely at da un. Prices have swung to a pick em
Kennedy has benefitted from fighting guys with bad cardio. He’s simpsoned like the last 3 guys he fought.
Kennedy has benefitted from fighting guys with bad cardio. He’s simpsoned like the last 3 guys he fought.
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