UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Rodriguez

[Deleted member 510399]

Baeza's sub line is so juicy if we knew he would shoot a few takedowns. I'm pretty much hoping baeza gets rocked on the feet and becomes more inclined to go to his wrestling path cause I don't trust him to go to it otherwise. Never know though maybe his iq is higher than I'm giving him credit for.

That's one of my few bets this card.

I'm on Rothwell, Spencer ITD, and Baeza sub +625.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

I can see why Max Holloway is a heavy favorite i do think he gets it done. I think there could be a few underdogs on this fight card.
Kennedy is one of the dogs i am on.

 

[sonhow]

Has Holloway ever been knocked down in a fight? The only way I see Yair taking this is a bs decision. Hard to see how he could outvolume him either.

 

[Guld]

Has Holloway ever been knocked down in a fight? The only way I see Yair taking this is a bs decision. Hard to see how he could outvolume him either.

I mean, with the amount of damage that Max typically eats in a fight, it's just a matter of time before his chin cracks. I don't think it will be this fight, but that day definitely is coming.

Yair can try to win by decision but I don't see him having any real luck in boxing range. He can try to keep it at kicking range but I think Max will be more than happy to close the distance, cut off angles, etc. to stop that. Yair could try to leg kick and circle/run the whole fight, but I really doubt he has the cardio required for that. So that only leaves a grappling/clinch heavy game, but again I think Max is either strong enough to stop that or might even outmuscle/outclinch Yair anyway.

So yeah, Yair's path to victory appears to be "land that lucky KO", but against a guy like Max that has never even been properly dropped from a strike that's a HUGE task.

 

[svmr_db]

No cliffs but the video is in the same order as the card from bottom to the top so it's easy to skim through

 

[TrueAscension]

EZ MONEY
EZ MONEY

At least you have gotten back to your roots you sexy mpoush sonofabitch

 

[TrueAscension]

I parlayed him at -550 and I consider myself lucky lol

You should consider yourself a retard for not just adding 18 pct to your bet instead.

 

[svmr_db]

You should consider yourself a retard for not just adding 18 pct to your bet instead.

 

[Card]

Joel Alvarez (157.5)* vs. Thiago Moises (155)
Cortney Casey (125) vs. Liana Jojua (128.5)^

* Alvarez missed the lightweight limit by 1.5 pounds and was fined 30 percent of his purse
^ Jojua missed the women’s flyweight limit by 2.5 pounds and was fined 30 percent of her purse

 

[guesswhoseback]

At least you have gotten back to your roots you sexy mpoush sonofabitch

That aint me but sicne everyone thinks it is I might as well take it up

 

[PuertoRican]

Look at the can on Kennedy...

Spoiler

 

[Guld]

Anything noteworthy from the weighins?
I thought Kennedy looked in better shape than usual, and Max looked shredded, drained in the face, but moving quick. I think he'll bulk back up nicely by tomorrow.

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

Joel Alvarez (157.5)* vs. Thiago Moises (155)
* Alvarez missed the lightweight limit by 1.5 pounds and was fined 30 percent of his purse

Alvarez is a monster at 155.

 

[Guld]

Alvarez is a monster at 155.

Yeah, ridiculous.
I noticed that the line shifted slightly away from Spencer. Any idea why?

 

[The Disasters]

I did not know there was a gambling section on this forum. This is awesome!

I don't think this is a very good betting card at all. Holloway is a ridiculous price, Rothwell is at that age where you can't be confident in him being the same fighter each time out, and it looks like there are a lot of decisions coming. I try to avoid decisions since the judges are so bad. The prices looked pretty accurate to me with the exception of what I listed below.

• I bet Anglin since I think his wrestling will be enough to make it messy and win rounds.
• I bet the under in Spencer/Letson but I won't be surprised at all if I lose that one. Spencer showed a complete lack of interest last time out and that could be the new norm for her.
• I wanted to bet Alvarez by sub because I figured I could get +650ish but I can't find it listed anywhere. I took a little +210 ml but I'm less excited about that bet.
• I wanted to talk myself into an Arce bet but with how the judges seem to favor Song I couldn't do it at that price.
  
• I think Calvillo/Lee is a little off (100/-120 is my line), but it's a decision so pass.

 

[Post 2 Decision]

I hate this weekend for bets.

Don't have confidence in anyone really, aside from Max, but that line is ridiculous.

Crazy to think that my most confident plays are Rothwell, Spencer, Song, and maybe Diakese.

I want to get in on Baeza, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if Khaos KO's him. Maybe I can hedge a straight Baeza play with a Khaos KO?

I'm going to play a lot of decision props, I could honestly see every fight going to the judges cards.

 

[Guld]

I hate this weekend for bets.

Don't have confidence in anyone really, aside from Max, but that line is ridiculous.

Crazy to think that my most confident plays are Rothwell, Spencer, Song, and maybe Diakese.

I want to get in on Baeza, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if Khaos KO's him. Maybe I can hedge a straight Baeza play with a Khaos KO?

I'm going to play a lot of decision props, I could honestly see every fight going to the judges cards.

Agreed. It has potential to be a very lackluster card. But who knows? sometimes those end up being some of the best cards.
Say your prayers to the Just Bleed God tonight before bed haha.

 

[mkess101]

Alvarez is a monster at 155.

He's absolutely gigantic, no wonder he missed weight. He's not only taller than Moises, he's noticeably thicker too. These guys are likely a full weight class apart when they step into the cage.

Not sure it will matter, but I cannot see paying juice on Moises here at all. I'd probably just steer way clear of this fight altogether.

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

He's absolutely gigantic, no wonder he missed weight. He's not only taller than Moises, he's noticeably thicker too. These guys are likely a full weight class apart when they step into the cage.

Not sure it will matter, but I cannot see paying juice on Moises here at all. I'd probably just steer way clear of this fight altogether.

If Moises wins, his stock will go way up. I wonder how much Alvarez cuts and if that means his cardio will be garbage halfway through the fight.

 

[BigSteve]

I cant get over lima losing to a forearm choke. I think Ben would demolish a guy like romonov with ease, his ground game and sub offense is probably up to par. Lima has several sub loses to these type of fighters. Would not surprise me of ben puts him in a standing guilotine and taps him out in the second round.

Romanov has a few forearm subs, its hit jam. Still very jobbery. At this point in his career, Romanov would run through Ben. Big athletism advantage, he would take him down and Ben is a turtle of his back. Would resemble the Vanderaa fight