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UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Rodriguez

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Card, Nov 1, 2021.

  1. BigSteve Purple Belt

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    good luck to you, if I was going to sprinkle it would be Ben submission too, or under. Ben had Barnnett flattened out in first and fell of lol. Took Barnett to be super gassed
     
    Doggo_Stat_Collector likes this.
  2. Main event fight doesn't go the distance is -101, and Holloway ITD is +105. I'll pay the extra 6 points to cover a Yair KO, as unlikely as that is.

    Yair dropped rd3 vs Stephens, Max should finish him late here.
     
  3. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    No brainer, good call.
     
  4. Guld The Last Chronomancer

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    I've had a bad streak lately. I bet heavy that Walker and Santos wouldn't go the distance. I figured Jan would take out Glover. And I didn't Gaethje/Chandler wouldn't go the distance.

    That's 3 bad hits, so maybe I'm due for an uptick? haha.

    I would like to feel confident that Max starches Yair, and I honestly think he finishes him before 5 rounds are up.

    If Yair beats him by decision I think I'm gonna have to stop gambling for a while haha.
     
  5. BigSteve Purple Belt

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    2 of those bets are props, maybe that's the problem. Obviously playing the juice on Jan is a different story.

    I have mentioned this once and il say it again, I have lost 10k props half way through the year, and then almost just cut them out. Mostly ones that should have hit' Geathje/Chandler, the Walker ones, etc. Now you might get burnned again with the Max fight, I just taped it and im not confident enough to lay the finish prop even though Max probably does it as Yair slows down. It's up to you but props in MMA are very unpredictable.
     
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  6. Guld The Last Chronomancer

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    Yeah, that's kinda been my takeaway as well.
    An overwhelming amount of the time I pick the right winner, but the failed props are what burns away any real winnings.
    I do have pretty solid success at Over/Under bets though. I'm still a noob at all of this, so I'm sure I have a lot to learn.
     
  7. BigSteve Purple Belt

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    all I know is im not giving away my hard-earned Unit just because Herb is reffing
     
  8. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Do you know which fights he's reffing?
     
  9. BigSteve Purple Belt

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    no idea, i think you can usually find out for main day before. If hes not reffing that Kattar fight its over in 3rd. Same as Volkov Ortega which I cant complain about because I had Volk DEC lol.
     
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  10. HSIC White Belt

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    You win some, you lose some
    Just a thought, try just solos or parlaying two fighters you are most confident in. Props are tough because theyre so specific. Imo picking fighters is more close to a 50/50. Props are always fun but when youre cold maybe switching it up and then go back to props. Not tryna tell you how to spend your money but I definitely wanna see everyone win. Breaks do me well too sometimes but scared money dont make money haha. Ufc has been paying my bills this year and i switched to just solos and parlaying 2-3 fighters for even or plus odds. Live betting has been profitable as well. Good luck though braddah. Do some research, go with your gut, and shoot um.
     
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  11. HSIC White Belt

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    Lol i just seen this after i responded. Max is my boy hes gonna mop up yair i got 2k on him at -450
     
  12. BigSteve Purple Belt

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    taped the rest of this shit show card:

    Kennedy/Jung: The battle of the Homer Simpsons. I had Kennedy at 2.75 originally and Bet365 let me keep the bet. Will keep the play. Both plod forward, have good chins, and somewhat low output. Kennedy is a bit green but he's tough to deal with, for once Jung is going to be facing someone bigger than him. Don't see Jung wrestling Kennedy here like Knight, a completely different style matchup. I see it as a standup affair for 3, Jung was eating every single shot Alvey threw at him. Kennedy has more power naturally as well. Dog or pass but I think at current odds it's pretty accurate.

    Diakiese/Alves: Another dog or pass for me. Cant trust Diakiese at these favourite odds, he seems to crumble when pressured and when he can't get his calf kick-off. He is very athletic and strong, pretty much exactly like his opponent. Alves is unpredictable but doesn't have much volume. He can win at any moment or he can do nothing or go for the guillotine and spend the round on the bottom. Diakiases does mix in takedowns so that's a likely scenario if he doesn't get guillotined. Alves seemed good at checking leg kicks in his last 2 fights and can fight out of both stances. The whole fight has an air of unpredictability so would rather pass.

    Woodson/Anglin: Well, another dog or pass for me here. Woodson doesn't warrant this line especially if it goes to a decision. Anglin is serviceable everywhere. He has solid wrestling, decent striking, pushes the pace has good cardio and durability. He has been a massive dog in his last two fights, cashed him on contender. He was giving Melsik a solid fight in the first but considering how he fights with his hands low, the power and speed were too much. Woodson has a massive reach advantage like usual but not the KO power. If Anglin can give him a gritty fight, get a few takedowns, fight like maybe Zelal or Bochniak but with bit more striking success could be super sweaty. Anglin DEC 6.00 nice lil punt if you are feeling frisky.

    Max/Yair: Max should style here. Hes not losing to a kick heavy guy who can't box for shit or wrestle. Only taped it to see if there was value in the finish prop. If there is a finish I think its most likely due to Yair cardio dying. He seems to have a chin, but against Zombie he fought super conservative, barely threw any kicks and was still cooked by the end of it. That was at high altitude, but he also gassed in the third against Stephens. Going to be hard to constantly move backwards and eat punches to the head when Max starts pressuring. Anyway im not sure If I will play the props, like I said up there if its Herb Dean in there I will probably be pulling my hair out. GG everyone.
     
  13. Main_Card_MMA What are we here to do again?

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    Herb isn't the only ref who lets things go long, either. It's about as reliable as MMA judging lol. I've made some and lost some because of it so I guess I'll keep complaining then try to factor it into my bets.
     
  14. Guld The Last Chronomancer

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    Thanks! I truly appreciate the advice!
    Yeah, I had a lot of success earlier this year with Individual bets and small parlays. It was only once I started getting sucked into live betting, and props, that I started to notice big hits.
    Since I have only been doing this for a few months, I made a rule with myself to never add additional funds. I figure I'll wait and see what I can do in a year with my initial investment and that should be a good sign on whether or not it warrants I stick with it and take it more seriously next year.
     
  15. 2020Tracked Green Belt

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    Moises, Rothwell, Anglin, Holloway, Baeza, Song.
     
  16. Kamais_Ookin Silver Belt

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    Baeza's sub line is so juicy if we knew he would shoot a few takedowns. I'm pretty much hoping baeza gets rocked on the feet and becomes more inclined to go to his wrestling path cause I don't trust him to go to it otherwise. Never know though maybe his iq is higher than I'm giving him credit for.
     
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  17. GoldenWolf87 Black Belt

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    I had a early bet on Roman i
    I feel you. I had taken week off betting. Last Card i did okish with the underdogs for the past two underdogs we only had either two or one underdog.
    But the underdogs i had decide to go with didn't go well.

    I am not sure how confident i am going to be on Max Holloway this week but i do feel he will gets it done. Will it hit with a ITD? i am not sure. The main event will likely go to a dec.
     
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  18. joenewbie Orange Belt

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    I said a few years ago when I started this, and still say, in MMA it's much easier to pick the winner of a fight than how they will win the fight. Over/Unders are hard for that reason. And that is why I'm suprised that I played the Under for both the main event and co main last weekend- and lost. The under for the co main was shit odds too which made it worse. My friend bet exactly the opposite of me though and she won (obviously) so I guess that was nice.
     
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  19. Guld The Last Chronomancer

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    Alright, I think I'm going for the following...
    -Max, Spencer, Woodson, Diakiese, and Kennedy

    I think all of them are the favorites, except for maybe Kennedy. I was gonna go Rothwell as well, but quite frankly I don't trust either guy in that matchup haha.
     
  20. Doggo_Stat_Collector Blue Belt Platinum Member

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    I cant get over lima losing to a forearm choke. I think Ben would demolish a guy like romonov with ease, his ground game and sub offense is probably up to par. Lima has several sub loses to these type of fighters. Would not surprise me of ben puts him in a standing guilotine and taps him out in the second round.
     

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