UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady

[Kazda1]

She was extremely close to finishing Hughes and Sam has shown a lot of grit so her surviving isn't a huge surprise. She (Amorim) very obviously realized how badly she gassed with the adrenaline dump and chasing the finish and decided vs Ruiz to simply not give up position no matter what and to not chase a finish. Eventually she got it.

Again, -4xx is ridiculous and absolutely I'm not advocating a play on Amorim. But putting it out there that a +3xx dog should be favored imo is inviting people to make substantial plays on her and I think that's a bad idea. A small stab? Sure. But imo she should not be favored and there's a better chance she gets grapple fucked for 15 minutes or subbed than of winning.

I'm for sure taking a stab on it. Don't think Demopolous is an outright favorite but I just wouldn't be surprised to see it be close.

 

[mkess101]

I'm for sure taking a stab on it. Don't think Demopolous is an outright favorite but I just wouldn't be surprised to see it be close.

Not unreasonable.
I'd cap Amorim maybe -200 to -250. So I could see a small stab at Demo. Probably just a pass for me though.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

She was extremely close to finishing Hughes and Sam has shown a lot of grit so her surviving isn't a huge surprise. She (Amorim) very obviously realized how badly she gassed with the adrenaline dump and chasing the finish and decided vs Ruiz to simply not give up position no matter what and to not chase a finish. Eventually she got it.

Again, -4xx is ridiculous and absolutely I'm not advocating a play on Amorim. But putting it out there that a +3xx dog should be favored imo is inviting people to make substantial plays on her and I think that's a bad idea. A small stab? Sure. But imo she should not be favored and there's a better chance she gets grapple fucked for 15 minutes or subbed than of winning.

Explain why Amorim should be the favorite.

go ahead......

Not unreasonable.
I'd cap Amorim maybe -200 to -250. So I could see a small stab at Demo. Probably just a pass for me though.

-250 for a guard puller who quit three fights ago against a more well rounded opponent who has won four of their past five fights.

 

[mkess101]

Explain why Amorim should be the favorite.

go ahead......

Because she's simply the superior grappler and may only need one grappling exchange to end the fight. Or at least get top position and dominate rounds. And Monster, outside her last fight, has never shied away from grappling. She seems to enjoy engaging in it and/or it's instinct and she reverts to it.
Let's be clear: I'm not looking at playing it at all. I think Amorim should be favored,
just not nearly as heavily as she is. You're claiming a +3xx fighter should be favored. Which means you'll likely make a massive bet on her I'd imagine. And I'll root for you to win because I won't probably have a dime on it. YOU are the one saying not only that the books have it wrong, but they have it SO egregiously wrong that it should be a no question max bet. So...we will see.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Because she's simply the superior grappler and may only need one grappling exchange to end the fight. Or at least get top position and dominate rounds. And Monster, outside her last fight, has never shied away from grappling. She seems to enjoy engaging in it and/or it's instinct and she reverts to it.
Let's be clear: I'm not looking at playing it at all. I think Amorim should be favored,
just not nearly as heavily as she is. You're claiming a +3xx fighter should be favored. Which means you'll likely make a massive bet on her I'd imagine. And I'll root for you to win because I won't probably have a dime on it. YOU are the one saying not only that the books have it wrong, but they have it SO egregiously wrong that it should be a no question max bet. So...we will see.

So the reason Amorim should be favored between 66.67-71% according to you is because she is "simply the better grappler"?

I hope thats not it.

 

[mkess101]

So the reason Amorim should be favored between 66.67-71% according to you is because she is "simply the better grappler"?

I hope thats not it.

Yes, by a mile she's the better grappler. And she's fighting someone who has always welcomed grappling outside one fight.

Let me ask you: you're getting what you deem should be a favorite at +3xx odds. How much of your BR will you risk on a fight with odds that you must think are more off base than any in a very long time? You're somewhat confident that a +3xx fighter will win...how much will you put on it? Has to be a fuck ton.

 

[B.Goetz]

So the reason Amorim should be favored between 66.67-71% according to you is because she is "simply the better grappler"?

I hope thats not it.

She's elite at something. Against an opponent who is elite at nothing and mediocre at everything. Sub R1.

 

[Guld]

I took Brady (-167), but I'm second-guessing myself there. In theory he's a younger version of Burns, who is 38 now and coming off two losses. That's the one I'd most like feedback on.

I think an initial bet on Brady makes sense based on the age/momentum of their careers. However, Burns only really loses to solid Wrestlers and guys that can outstrike him. Brady is a great grappler, but I don't know if I'd describe him as a great wrestler (if that makes sense). He has solid JJ/subs, but not necessarily a great takedown/position/top control kinda guy. (At least not compared to Khamzat or Belal). If it stays standing I think Burns will have a big advantage. About my only concern would be his age/chin, but I'd still favor Burns to win it there.

So my plan (similar to this Caio fight) is put an early bet on Brady, wait for the line to hopefully become juiced, and then bet Burns at even better odds.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

She's elite at something. Against an opponent who is elite at nothing and mediocre at everything. Sub R1.

You haven't taped the fight:

I just went from memory, didn't tape the fights for this event.

so how would you know?

The fact that you declared Amorim as "virtually unbeatable" before even taping the fight speaks for itself.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Awesome APEX Card. I expect a lot of finishes, possible 13/13.

Zygi looks unconfident on the ground, his SUB defense is zero. Fletcher back take and finish him on RNC or something.

Santos early in his career finish a lot of good fighters on SUB, Brenner pull out of deep RNC, Onana too. I think chinese fighters are not so good in SUB defense.

After that when Malkoun knocks out Petroski via hip touch, I can't believe in his durability. Budka it reminds me of Brundage, can be some unexpected KO like against Reece.

We see Dulgarian's transitions are incredible, Marrote isn't on the UFC level... Takedown - GNP - Trap Into D'Arce.

Vanessa accepts dog fights against better grapplers than her in his career. Questionable fight IQ, Amorim grind for the submission all the time... IDK who can survive her chain submission game.

Two crazy brazilians trading punches on center of the cage. Felipe has phenomenal drop step counters show it against Kape, can capitulate on them over Lima... He will set up high kick all the time and execute that in the third round.

Nelson wants slow pace of fight, Garcia is like a train. Embarrassing match up for Nelson, he can't survive his chasings.

Peek vs Ashmouz 50-50 fight. I'm going with The Highlight Peek perfomance like old Gaethje.

Schnell glass chin, Costa one of the hardest puncher in the division.

Andrade will be punching bag. Natalia Silva will land too much clean shots in three rounds and I think she will get late finish.

Burns KO/TKO 30% - SUB 8% - DEC - 10%
Brady KO/TKO 4% - SUB 10% - DEC 38%

 

[Georges Hefner]

The king shall rest tonight. Lots of tape study on the schedule for this week

I will find the underdogs barking soon enough

perhaps Matt schnell +400

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Let me ask you: you're getting what you deem should be a favorite at +3xx odds. How much of your BR will you risk on a fight with odds that you must think are more off base than any in a very long time? You're somewhat confident that a +3xx fighter will win...how much will you put on it? Has to be a fuck ton.

The reason it is unwise to do what you are suggesting is because value frequently does not get there. If I bet a fighter every time I believed there was value on their ML I would go broke very quickly. I said Demopolous should be the favorite, probably in the neighborhood of 55-60%, I didn’t say she is a lock to win.

Personally, I never lay more than 2u on a ML, and when I back an underdog almost never do I lay more than 1u on them; though since you asked I did bet 2u on Demopolous at +380.

 

[PuertoRican]

Personally, I never lay more than 2u on a ML, and when I back an underdog almost never do I lay more than 1u on them; though since you asked I did bet 2u on Demopolous at +380.

Interesting.

So you don't have a true max bet? 2 units is the most you will let yourself bet, even if you are getting even odds on a fighter who you think is mispriced and will easily crush their opponent? I ask because most bettors who follow the "1 unit = 1% of their bankroll" strategy will have 5 units as their max bet.

I wouldn't even call your method slow and steady, I would just call it slow, respectfully. That being said, if you only bet as a way to make watching UFC more interesting and you don't really care about making decent money from betting, then I guess I understand your method.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Interesting.

So you don't have a true max bet? 2 units is the most you will let yourself bet, even if you are getting even odds on a fighter who you think is mispriced and will easily crush their opponent? I ask because most bettors who follow the "1 unit = 1% of their bankroll" strategy will have 5 units as their max bet.

I wouldn't even call your method slow and steady, I would just call it slow, respectfully. That being said, if you only bet as a way to make watching UFC more interesting and you don't really care about making decent money from betting, then I guess I understand your method.

If you tape fights in advance of lines opening, then you can best identify when a fighter who opens as a +200 underdog should in actuality be a -200 favorite, and extract most of the value at opening. You can build up a healthy bankroll quicker than you would think utilizing this strategy, all while minimizing risk, since you never have more than 2% of your bankroll invested into any fight and are mainly betting fighters you perceive as favorites at dog odds.

For example, I put 2u on Wang Cong at +164 and 1u on Jacqueline Cavalcanti at +145 at opening and profited nearly 5u on this card despite my money being in very little danger.

I wasn’t very good when I started and didn’t know jack shit about betting, so it was to my own benefit that I practiced good bankroll management. My unit size has risen 10x since I started betting MMA four years which is fast enough for me.

 

['Suga Daddy']

Why wouldn't people feel great about backing the more more well rounded fighter at big dog odds?

Amorim had the back of Sam Hughes for the entire first round and could not finish her. She also took till the 13th minute to finish Montserat Ruiz despite having many dominant positions throughout the fight. Amorim has great accolades in the grappling world but she does not have the type of lights out BJJ game you are prescribing to her.

Demopolous should be the favorite.

You can't be serious about Demo being the rightful favourite???

 

[mkess101]

The reason it is unwise to do what you are suggesting is because value frequently does not get there. If I bet a fighter every time I believed there was value on their ML I would go broke very quickly. I said Demopolous should be the favorite, probably in the neighborhood of 55-60%, I didn’t say she is a lock to win.

Personally, I never lay more than 2u on a ML, and when I back an underdog almost never do I lay more than 1u on them; though since you asked I did bet 2u on Demopolous at +380.

That's weird logic. I'm not suggesting you risk half your bankroll or something insane. But you only want to risk 2% of it on something you think has a 60% chance of hitting and you're getting paid almost 4-1?

Also, the statement "if I bet a fighter every time I believed there was value on their ML I'd go broke quickly"...huh? That makes absolutely zero sense unless you're literally saying you suck at assessing when there's value. Why would you go broke quickly when betting fighters that have value LMAO? That's actually specifically how you grow a bankroll, not shrink it.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Hit almost 200 units profit. I made my mark.

But im leaving Sherdog. Im tired of getting yellow cards . You guys are so soft. Always snitching to the feds.

After what happened to my brother Dalcha Lungiubla yesterday, I refuse to ever visit this site again. You guys are not my friends. You rejected my advances. I only had one friend. And now he’s fucking gone!!!!!!

 

[mkess101]

View attachment 1059952


Hit almost 200 units profit. I made my mark.

But im leaving Sherdog. Im tired of getting yellow cards . You guys are so soft. Always snitching to the feds.

After what happened to my brother Dalcha Lungiubla yesterday, I refuse to ever visit this site again. You guys are not my friends. You rejected my advances. I only had one friend. And now he’s fucking gone!!!!!!

He shoulda listened to you about Meerschaert. He went against his fam and got killed.

Never go against the family.

 

[Georges Hefner]

He shoulda listened to you about Meerschaert. He went against his fam and got killed.

Never go against the family.

He went against his hero and paid the price dearly. Fuck I just lost my best friend to gambling. I already lost a good friend from middle school due to heroin. I told him earlier this week (I told everyone this) that Gm3 is a HERE WE GO. Edman is a fraud!!!

 

[mkess101]

He went against his hero and paid the price dearly. Fuck I just lost my best friend to gambling. I already lost a good friend from middle school due to heroin. I told him earlier this week (I told everyone this) that Gm3 is a HERE WE GO. Edman is a fraud!!!

You can't help people that don't want help. Don't blame yourself. You did what you could.