UFC 312 underdog pick of the night

[doozer]

In virtually all ufc cards there is at least 1 fighter who beats the odds. I am not the best of pickers but it seems lately I’ve been quite confident on 1 underdog and I’ve been correct. So I figured I would make a thread for people to pick their underdog of the night. Since this is my first I am going to mention the past 3 I picked this year, though whether you take my word for it or not is up to you. First card I went with Christian Rodriguez. Last card I went with MVP, both of those I posted about. Last ppv I picked Merab as my 1 pick, I not sure I mentioned him, but if I did it was among other picks for the night.
When I was first going to make this thread Suarez was the underdog and it was an obvious easy pick for me. Unfortunately since then she is favoured which has made things very hard for me.
Main Card:

​

• Dricus Du Plessis (-198) vs. Sean Strickland (+164)
• Zhang Weili (+102) vs. Tatiana Suarez (-122)
• Justin Tafa (+120) vs. Tallison Teixeira (-142)
• Jimmy Crute (+136) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (-162)
• Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado

Preliminary Card:

• Jack Jenkins (+185) vs. Gabriel Santos (-225)
• Tom Nolan (+120) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (-142)
• Wang Cong (-485) vs. Bruna Brasil (+370)
• Colby Thicknesse (+330) vs. Aleksandre Topuria (-425)

Early Preliminary Card:

• Rongzhu (+200) vs. Kody Steele (-245)
• Kevin Jousset (-245) vs. Jonathan Micallef (+200)
• Quillan Salkilld (-550) vs. Anshul Jubli (+410)
• HyunSung Park (-218) vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (+180)

In the end I went with Strickland. He will Outland DDP and if he isn’t finished there is a good chance it will be scored for numbers.

 

[Siver!]

In virtually all ufc cards there is at least 1 fighter who beats the odds. I am not the best of pickers but it seems lately I’ve been quite confident on 1 underdog and I’ve been correct. So I figured I would make a thread for people to pick their underdog of the night. Since this is my first I am going to mention the past 3 I picked this year, though whether you take my word for it or not is up to you. First card I went with Christian Rodriguez. Last card I went with MVP, both of those I posted about. Last ppv I picked Merab as my 1 pick, I not sure I mentioned him, but if I did it was among other picks for the night.
When I was first going to make this thread Suarez was the underdog and it was an obvious easy pick for me. Unfortunately since then she is favoured which has made things very hard for me.
Main Card:

​

• Dricus Du Plessis (-198) vs. Sean Strickland (+164)
• Zhang Weili (+102) vs. Tatiana Suarez (-122)
• Justin Tafa (+120) vs. Tallison Teixeira (-142)
• Jimmy Crute (+136) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (-162)
• Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado

Preliminary Card:

• Jack Jenkins (+185) vs. Gabriel Santos (-225)
• Tom Nolan (+120) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (-142)
• Wang Cong (-485) vs. Bruna Brasil (+370)
• Colby Thicknesse (+330) vs. Aleksandre Topuria (-425)

Early Preliminary Card:

• Rongzhu (+200) vs. Kody Steele (-245)
• Kevin Jousset (-245) vs. Jonathan Micallef (+200)
• Quillan Salkilld (-550) vs. Anshul Jubli (+410)
• HyunSung Park (-218) vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (+180)

In the end I went with Strickland. He will Outland DDP and if he isn’t finished there is a good chance it will be scored for numbers.

I'm a fan, man.

Hope you make these regular!

My pick is an easy one. I might look silly in a couple of hours time, but I think Thicknesse finishes Topuria in R2 or R3.

 

[Kung Fu Kowboy]

 

[Neck&Neck]

Jimmy Crute is the obvious choice
Have you heard of him?

 

[Harlekin]

MVP was the underdog? Crazy, just googled it.
Thought he would have be the heavy favorite. It was such an obvious pick.
MVP is the taller, longer, better, faster striker and Shara's style is taylor made for his game. As they would fight at max range.
Plus Shara has no ground game.
People look too much at record numbers.

 

[mkess101]

Jimmy Crute is the obvious choice
Have you heard of him?

He's live...but hasn't won a fight since 2020...yikes.

Long ass layoff from his last fight where he looked like dogshit too. Guys like him are hard to cap. Obviously talented but also potentially broken beyond repair. Maybe he's finally healthy and looks great. Maybe he gets steamrolled. I kinda lean the latter but maybe he proves me wrong.

 

[mkess101]

I'm a fan, man.

Hope you make these regular!

My pick is an easy one. I might look silly in a couple of hours time, but I think Thicknesse finishes Topuria in R2 or R3.

Lotta people like him at big dog odds. If he survives rd 1, he's absolutely live.

 

[xhaydenx]

Yeh, Strickland is easily the best dog for the odds offered.

2.87 is wild. I though it would be evens considering how close the first fight was.

 

[Neck&Neck]

He's live...but hasn't won a fight since 2020...yikes.

Long ass layoff from his last fight where he looked like dogshit too. Guys like him are hard to cap. Obviously talented but also potentially broken beyond repair. Maybe he's finally healthy and looks great. Maybe he gets steamrolled. I kinda lean the latter but maybe he proves me wrong.

Yeah I know I was joking brother
Hopefully he looks better tonight

 

[MisfitsBR]

Bruna Brasil, odds are high against but I saw her last fight and she was fine

Volk appeared on Embedded helping Colby, let's see if Ilia's brother will follow the expectations

But my money (5$ lol) is on Strickland, bias bet (maybe) but I don't care, let's gooooo

 

[JoeRowe]

Jenkins & Brasil have good value imo.

Also Strickland hy DEC +275 is nice. If he wins it's almost certainly going to be by DEC. Fight is close to 50/50 so +275 is fantastic value.

 

[Kyojiro Kagenuma]

Yeh, Strickland is easily the best dog for the odds offered.

2.87 is wild. I though it would be evens considering how close the first fight was.

Driscus just looks undefeatabeatable lately. Also what about Zhang?

 

[fortheo]

Little Topuria should NOT be that big of a favorite. Brasil and jenkins are live dogs, too. Also, anytime you can get a champ as an underdog (weili), it isn't a bad idea.

 

[Sean Chowdhury]

I think jousset will lose but idk if he's a favourite

 

[Ares Black]

Thicknesse is a significant underdog but I think he has a good chance

 

[doozer]

I'm a fan, man.

Hope you make these regular!

My pick is an easy one. I might look silly in a couple of hours time, but I think Thicknesse finishes Topuria in R2 or R3.

Thickness is a pretty heavy dog. You may be right I wish you the best on your pick

 

[doozer]

Jimmy Crute is the obvious choice
Have you heard of him?

Of course I have. A very talented fighter who came in undefeated and had a streak but hasn’t won in his last 4 fights. I think he has more potential then the guy he’s versing but I can’t trust him to be counted on.

 

[doozer]

MVP was the underdog? Crazy, just googled it.
Thought he would have be the heavy favorite. It was such an obvious pick.
MVP is the taller, longer, better, faster striker and Shara's style is taylor made for his game. As they would fight at max range.
Plus Shara has no ground game.
People look too much at record numbers.

I know right. It wasn’t just records, mvp has a great record. It was the hype behind him. I never really bought into it. I said mvp is the better striker and Shara won’t take him down, my only question mark was that mvp was up a weight class.

 

[doozer]

Lotta people like him at big dog odds. If he survives rd 1, he's absolutely live.

Yeah. That’s not to say they think he will win but they don’t think he should be that big a dog. But hey on here we’re all looking at fighters to best the odds.

 

[doozer]

Yeh, Strickland is easily the best dog for the odds offered.

2.87 is wild. I though it would be evens considering how close the first fight was.

It was hard. They took away my obvious choice, and I’m not picking someone who might win I’m trying to pick who I believe will win. Initially I had DDP to win but although I am definitely concerned I feel like I have a good reason that I feel Strickland should win.