UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura

[sonhow]

Weirdly, Nate has 2 KO losses in 23 pro fights and both were from getting hit flush with knees to the face. Not sure how relevant that is...?

And both happened suuuper early in fights. He tends to become very durable past certain points of fight kinda like Donald Cerrone

 

[Gabe]

There is serious value on Smith at -270 that line is too big. It’s not like Reyes is on a big win streak and Smith can pull off sneaky wins like this. It’s 50/50.

 

[Gabe]

Volkov looks tempting, but pretty favourable matchup for Gane (another striker). I think Volkov will do better than in their 1st fight, but will that be enough? Thoughts on Choi? I like him at + odds. Imo he's a slight favourite, better fighter who snatches defeat from the jaws of victory

I would stay away from betting on Volkov I think Gane is a safe bet. There is potential in Choi but lest be honest, inactivity and the wars he’s been in make it hard to confidently pick him against almost any fighter. Plus Landwher is pretty damn good himself.

 

[Guld]

There is serious value on Smith at -270 that line is too big. It’s not like Reyes is on a big win streak and Smith can pull off sneaky wins like this. It’s 50/50.

Agreed. I don't trust either, and could easily see it going either way. In that situation, always play the value which in this case is Smith.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

There is serious value on Smith at -270 that line is too big. It’s not like Reyes is on a big win streak and Smith can pull off sneaky wins like this. It’s 50/50.

That's a terrible call.

50/ 50??

Anthony Smith is completely washed.

Reyes' weakness is to power punchers, and he is in the midst of experiencing a career resurgence.

Smith doesn't have anything to challenge him outside of a fluke KO/ SUB.

It is unlikely that he'll even be able to get 1 takedown, which is where he'll need it to be to have any real chance.

 

[sonhow]

Reyes should beat Smith comfortably. Spann loss worrysome but if he were completely shot I think he wouldnt have made it past Jacoby.

 

[Stat_Collector]

That's a terrible call.

50/ 50??

Anthony Smith is completely washed.

Reyes' weakness is to power punchers, and he is in the midst of experiencing a career resurgence.

Smith doesn't have anything to challenge him outside of a fluke KO/ SUB.

It is unlikely that he'll even be able to get 1 takedown, which is where he'll need it to be to have any real chance.

i have reyes as well, but i would not put it passed him to fumble the ball.

He's been extremly inactive. Smith has fought far much more and has had more training camps in recent years.

Smith also has a high finish rate rather it's subs or kos, how many sub specialist has Reyes beaten to determine he can avoid getting tapped?

Jon jones has only 7 subs and he wasn't grappling heavy in the first 3 rounds. Reyes also is a counter puncher, Smith likes to hold his ground with high guard, smith can attack his lead leg and force Reyes to over commit to his strikes and get taken down and subbed or get caught with a counter himself, Reyes chin is in far worst condition, he got koed by a Spann jab, where Smith withstood Spann's power easily.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Reyes should beat Smith comfortably. Spann loss worrysome but if he were completely shot I think he wouldnt have made it past Jacoby.

tbf Jacoby fought stupid too, he lunged at reyes and started brawling, being overly aggressive with reyes is a big mistake, Smith withstood Spann and Walker who are both heavy hitters. His last recent ko was a ground and pound finish by Ankolaev. We dont really know if Reyes is back or if he just had a spur of the moment that made him look like his old self again, his chin may still be glass at this point, far worst than smith's chin.

 

[Thesnake101]

tbf Jacoby fought stupid too, he lunged at reyes and started brawling, being overly aggressive with reyes is a big mistake, Smith withstood Spann and Walker who are both heavy hitters. His last recent ko was a ground and pound finish by Ankolaev. We dont really know if Reyes is back or if he just had a spur of the moment that made him look like his old self again, his chin may still be glass at this point, far worst than smith's chin.

We just ignoring Khalil giving Smith a stroke? Spann also caught him late in their rematch with a big shot. I think the speed difference here will be too much for Smith, don't think he's got the wrestling chops to take it to the mat either.

 

[Stat_Collector]

We just ignoring Khalil giving Smith a stroke? Spann also caught him late in their rematch with a big shot. I think the speed difference here will be too much for Smith, don't think he's got the wrestling chops to take it to the mat either.

yeah i forgot about the counter uppercut, i knew i was missing something in my read. but that uppercut landed in round 3, same with spann, this fight will likely be under 1.5, smith has a solid lead hook he dropped spann with in his first fight, he also nailed Khalil with a nice close range elbow. Smith has his moments with Khalil in round 2, all it really takes is a few power shots to get Reyes out imo.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Smith just needs to land that straight punch and he's getting Reyes out. 5:25 timestamped

 

[StewDogg11]

That's a terrible call.

50/ 50??

Anthony Smith is completely washed.

Reyes' weakness is to power punchers, and he is in the midst of experiencing a career resurgence.

Smith doesn't have anything to challenge him outside of a fluke KO/ SUB.

It is unlikely that he'll even be able to get 1 takedown, which is where he'll need it to be to have any real chance.

A single win over a mid level 36 year old doesn’t mean you’re in the midst of a career resurgence.

 

[sonhow]

yeah i forgot about the counter uppercut, i knew i was missing something in my read. but that uppercut landed in round 3, same with spann, this fight will likely be under 1.5, smith has a solid lead hook he dropped spann with in his first fight, he also nailed Khalil with a nice close range elbow. Smith has his moments with Khalil in round 2, all it really takes is a few power shots to get Reyes out imo.

I think hes too slow to land the big shot. He hasnt knocked anyone out in a long time. Smith really excells on people making mistakes and taking advantage. But I'm having hard time seeing Reyes making a mistake that leads to his downfall. Imo Smith almost needs help from his opponent at this point if he wants to win.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I think hes too slow to land the big shot. He hasnt knocked anyone out in a long time. Smith really excells on people making mistakes and taking advantage. But I'm having hard time seeing Reyes making a mistake that leads to his downfall. Imo Smith almost needs help from his opponent at this point if he wants to win.

i might try reyes round 3 ko , i need some good value, anything else is juiced.

 

[sonhow]

i might try reyes round 3 ko , i need some good value, anything else is juiced.

Yeaaah looking at odds now I can easily understand the hesitance to play Reyes su. Didnt even realize they got this wide already.

 

[mkess101]

That's a terrible call.

50/ 50??

Anthony Smith is completely washed.

Reyes' weakness is to power punchers, and he is in the midst of experiencing a career resurgence.

Smith doesn't have anything to challenge him outside of a fluke KO/ SUB.

It is unlikely that he'll even be able to get 1 takedown, which is where he'll need it to be to have any real chance.

"In the midst of" a career resurgence? He won 1 fight after being finished in 3 straight. This MIGHT be the start of a resurgence but he's not "in the midst" of anything.

Smith at this point seems tailor made for him though. Anthony can still hang with guys who don't have a huge speed edge on him. I think Dom does, and when the exchanges happen Dom is far more likely to land first.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I think hes too slow to land the big shot. He hasnt knocked anyone out in a long time. Smith really excells on people making mistakes and taking advantage. But I'm having hard time seeing Reyes making a mistake that leads to his downfall. Imo Smith almost needs help from his opponent at this point if he wants to win.

You'd have to watch the first 2 rounds with Khalil and Spann 2 and Spann 1 and you'll see Smith still has grit and heart. He's also fought 11x since 2020 and Dom has fought 4x

smith is 5/6 and Dom is 1/4

i know when we have these dicussions we like to just keep it straight and decide who wins.

But as a gambling discussion, there is no justification for Dom being a near 3 to 1 favorite , smith would have likely beaten jacoby too.

edit : i deleted my Ozdimir comment, i meant to say Dom went to split dec with Oz and Smith beat him square. And spann who Smtih beat.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

While we're talking about Aljo/Evloev...can someone explain how Mitchell/Kron is on the ppv and this one on the prelims??? It's not even the "featured prelim" that they use to try to lure people into buying the ppv. Aljo/Evloev and Battle/Brown are both way more compelling than Bryce/Kron. And more important when it comes to divisions etc. Bryce got sent to the shadow realm by Emmett last fight and Kron barely fights and is a one dimensional guy in his late 30's that's not gonna evolve. Aljo/Evloev is a #1 contender fight. Brown and Battle both on win streaks.

Makes no sense to me.

They're going after the lucrative flat earthers market.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Yep. I assumed Nickal would stand too, I just thought he'd be more aggressive since he's shown some power and Craig's chin is questionable. With Bryce and Kron...neither have power or skills standing. So even the prospect of a wild, sloppy brawl seems unlikely. Both know their striking sucks. Bryce knows how dangerous Kron's grappling is, but that Kron probably can't force the figt to the mat if Bryce doesn't want it there. It has all the makings of a snooker.

The ONLY reason I'm holding out a little hope of it being entertaining is that Bryce has a screw loose and might say "F it" and take Kron down to make a point and show how good he thinks his grappling is.

Taking down Kron would be very stupid but we're talking about a guy who drilled his own nutsack.

 

[Thesnake101]

Taking down Kron would be very stupid but we're talking about a guy who drilled his own nutsack.

In the first, sure, second and third though? That's when the Gracie cardio kicks in and they become turtles. Tim controlled Roger in the second round of their fight and that was a far more accomplished BJJ guy than Kron to put it mildly.

And like I said before Jourdain survived him on the ground. It's not the past of least resistance by any means, but it's not as unwinnable as some may think.